Trump-the-judo-master vs. Hillary

Guest Cartoon

New York probably settled some things.    

Hillary is unstoppable and Trump got his mojo back.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

Bernie may well do well in the remaining states but it simply won't matter because Hillary has a big enough head start that she can limp across the finish line.   She may well march across proudly, but either way, she now has it won.   Hillary will be the Democratic nominee.

Trump recovered from the Wisconsin loss, and by winning an actual significant majority shows plausibility that he is not a niche candidate with a low ceiling of 40%.  It is far from over but Trump showed he could change, he showed he could bounce back, and he showed that in some places a majority of Republicans like him.   That is a triple milestone.  Trump could easily be the nominee.

Trump gets great ratings because he fights asymmetrically.  He doesn't disagree, he de-legitimizes.  He has begun calling Hillary Clinton "Crooked Hillary."  This is a classic example of "begging the question", i.e. assuming a premise rather than proving it.   In debate or logic it is known as an "error".  In politics it is known as a winning formula.   

"Crooked Hillary."   Trump is trying to brand Hillary as "crooked" so that voters will have that frame or interpretation in mind as a way to understand or interpret future events.   Someone says she didn't handle her emails correctly, but she says it was perfectly legal?  Well, no wonder she would claim that because, after all, she's "crooked."   She got well paid by Goldman Sachs for doing a celebrity speech,  just like Reagan did after he was out of office.  Was Hillary corrupted by it?  Hillary claims no.   Well, no wonder she would claim that because, after all, she's "crooked."

Trump is a genius at getting the media to play along with it.  He has de-legitimized the media as a credible referee or objective truth-teller.  (Trump:  who are you going to believe, me or the lying dishonest media?? )

Hillary's strength is her brand of familiar center-left establishment reasonableness so she will likely be competent and reasonable, and her weakness is that very brand, because voters are saying they don't trust this system and want change.  Trump is well placed to exploit this positioning for Hillary, charging that she is sold out to Wall Street, is complicit in establishment mistakes domestically and abroad, is excessively politically correct, and that she is "crooked."  In short, he doesn't acknowledge Hillary for who she is, he accuses her of being who she is.

Trump's strength is that he is outside the box, flexible, extemporaneous, full of self-confidence, and a master at manipulating the status quo in media, in politics, and the established order among the interest group coalitions that have power in the Republican party.   His weakness is that those groups are threatened by him and as a seat of the pants talker he makes mistakes.  So he come across as "unpresidential."    Like Hillary, his strength is his weakness.   

Hillary will appear safe; Trump will appear risky.   The harder Trump attacks the more careless and unpresidential he may appear.  But the more safe and responsible Hillary presents herself, the more she is locked into a discredited establishment.   Each candidate has a brand that is weakened when it asserts itself because of the flip side embedded in the strength.

Hillary: success as a practitioner in the political system

The ability to do something very, very well (Trump disrupt a discredited establishment; Hillary as very responsible and experienced) has its downside.   Garrison Keillor related a charming story about a Minnesota farmer who came into some money and brought his older pickup truck to the Ford dealer to trade it in for a 4 wheel drive rig.   "My two-wheel drive pickup keeps getting stuck," he told the salesman.   Six months later he returned to the  dealership hoping to trade his new truck back in for a 2-wheel drive truck.  The salesman asked the problem.  "I still get stuck just as often, but now I get stuck further from the road."

Trump: success in discrediting the GOP establishment

Candidates strengths brought them far.   Trump's skill at discrediting the establishment has likely won him the Republican nomination and Hillary's experience as a practitioner in the establishment has almost certainly won her the Democratic one.   Each are now further into the mud flats where the very strength that got them this partial victory makes them more vulnerable to attack for that very attribute.  I expect both of them to get stuck in the mud of their own brand strength.   Only Trump could have so disrupted the GOP establishment.   Only Hillary could have done so well courting Democratic elected officials, raising money from powerful interests, and been involved so deeply in the health care and foreign policy achievements and disappointments of the country.  So they are now in dangerous territory,

Trump has the better record of flexibility to change himself as necessary which gives him the advantage getting unstuck.  But he may have already driven himself too deeply into the mud to get out.  In creating supporters he has created implacable foes.  The Stop Trump movement will remain into the general election.   No matter how flexible and good you are, if you are stuck too deep you are going no where.