Paul Ryan sparked media buzz that he was willing to be president, after all.
The path is clear: 1. Contested GOP convention. 2. Multiple ballots with Trump and Cruz supporters hating each other. 3. Bystander Paul Ryan, the 2012 VP nominee, steps in as party uniter.
Let's look closely at the ad that sparked this talk:
Yes, it is ad that positions him for the 3 part path above. It is Paul Ryan, the unifier, the guy open to a variety of points of view and therefore a "common denominator" in a fractious GOP. It also shows him as a trusted leader at the front of a polite room full of Republican congressmen. News media people are squatting down on the floor as he towers above them--the right relationship between politician and media.
Music swells behind him as he talks. President Paul Ryan: ready to serve.
Here is a reality check: In South Carolina I heard both Trump and Cruz give speeches which condemned Paul Ryan by name, accusing him of a massive sell out of conservative principles (Cruz) and of a powerful negotiating position (Trump) when he made a compromise budget deal with the Obama administration. The audiences roared their approval. Paul Ryan may represent a sensible "adult in the room" reputation among many in the media and the general population but Paul Ryan represents the enemy among the Republicans who are showing up to vote this year.
Paul Ryan speaks of unity and inclusion in the ad and he was the one person who could link the conservative House caucus with the angry-conservative Freedom Caucus of some 50 house members whose intransigence pushed out Speaker Boehner. But he is also, simultaneously and immutably, the voice of establishment Republican orthodoxy, and that is what some 80% of voters are rejecting, which is why the GOP primary is a complicated mess.
Paul Ryan's budget is the embodiment of "trickle down." It cuts taxes, especially on job creators, which everyone likes, but it also balances the budget. This means cuts in Social Security, Medicare, and the safety net that takes the edge off darwinian globalist capitalism. Paul Ryan reflects the sensible, mature, pro-business donor class's interests: low taxes, lower business regulation, free trade--policies defined as pro-growth.
Trump supporters understand that those are policies that sacrifice the middle and working class majorities in the interest of the donor special interests, the people Trump says are the puppet masters of the Congress. And Cruz supporters understand that those policies--plus policies of traditional moral values--have been pursued insincerely and weakly by the establishment because they compromise seeking the praise of opinion elites in the mistaken view that power comes from seeking "middle ground" instead of Reagan-like conservative clarity.
Trump supporters understand that those are policies that sacrifice the middle and working class majorities in the interest of the donor special interests, the people Trump says are the puppet masters of the Congress. And Cruz supporters understand that those policies--plus policies of traditional moral values--have been pursued insincerely and weakly by the establishment because they compromise seeking the praise of opinion elites in the mistaken view that power comes from seeking "middle ground" instead of Reagan-like conservative clarity.
Ryan may well be less the "common denominator" than the "common enemy. In both cases Paul Ryan represents the establishment Trump and Cruz are condemning.
Possibly Ryan can fix this, with policy adjustments and communication skills that paper over the conflict. But Ryan is on the record on some things: "saving" Social Security by reducing its benefits and "saving" Medicare by privatizing it. Republican crowds stand up and cheer at the notion of de-regulating Wall Street, slashing the role of the EPA, and de-funding Planned Parenthood. These may be learned-by-rote applause lines of thinking they hate government rather than actual political beliefs.
Trump voters want strong government on the side of the people, not small limited government. Cruz voters say they want small government, except for the military which they want big, plus a government strong enough at home to re-establish government as a force for moral virtues.
Trump and Cruz voters skew older and voters like Social Security and Medicare even as they complain about big government giveaways. ("Get the government out of my Medicare," is a joke and a reality, both. Voters like what they think they hate.)
Possibly Ryan can fix this, with policy adjustments and communication skills that paper over the conflict. But Ryan is on the record on some things: "saving" Social Security by reducing its benefits and "saving" Medicare by privatizing it. Republican crowds stand up and cheer at the notion of de-regulating Wall Street, slashing the role of the EPA, and de-funding Planned Parenthood. These may be learned-by-rote applause lines of thinking they hate government rather than actual political beliefs.
Trump voters want strong government on the side of the people, not small limited government. Cruz voters say they want small government, except for the military which they want big, plus a government strong enough at home to re-establish government as a force for moral virtues.
Trump and Cruz voters skew older and voters like Social Security and Medicare even as they complain about big government giveaways. ("Get the government out of my Medicare," is a joke and a reality, both. Voters like what they think they hate.)
Paul Ryan has become a Plan B candidate for President because he has attempted to legislate, so he has real credibility, credibility he earned as a professional budgeter. That is his strength--but, of course, it is also his weakness.
Ryan has not been going around the country telling people they can have tax cuts, a bigger military, and a balanced budget, simultaneously, all by cutting Obama-phones--a very popular idea, one voiced by successful presidential candidates. The crowds want to hear about winning, not budget cuts. They want small government and a much, much bigger military. They want tax cuts AND a balanced budget, now. Can they have it all? Trump and Cruz say yes.
Ryan has not been going around the country telling people they can have tax cuts, a bigger military, and a balanced budget, simultaneously, all by cutting Obama-phones--a very popular idea, one voiced by successful presidential candidates. The crowds want to hear about winning, not budget cuts. They want small government and a much, much bigger military. They want tax cuts AND a balanced budget, now. Can they have it all? Trump and Cruz say yes.
Not Ryan. Ryan has said that cutting taxes and balancing the budget will require cuts in programs. Oh. Well, that is different. Ryan's credibility as a budgeter makes him very vulnerable as a presidential candidate.
Voters want what they want, and they want it free.
Voters want what they want, and they want it free.
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