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| Guest Cartoon |
Trump doesn't mind changing his mind.
Trump is a populist. He might even be an old style liberal. He voices goals and impulses and desires that reflect a notion of a great America that acts in the interests of regular non-elite Americans. Populism represents people who gamble at casinos, not people who own the casinos. He voices their resentments over affirmative action and the perceived slights to the traditional majority, their perceived economic interest as it relates to immigration and foreign competition, and their fears at a time of ethnic and religious warfare.
To my liberal, progressive, educated friends that does not sound "liberal". It sounds George Wallace-like. It sounds Archie Bunker-like. It sounds blue collar, unsophisticated, conservative.
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| Hillary at a Fundraiser: a comfort zone |
Trump isn't ideological and hasn't apparently thought very deeply or carefully about policy, not even after 9 months of campaigning. How can he dare be so vague and uninformed--far less informed than any attentive reader of the NY Times or a serious news magazine like The Economist, or any regular reader of this blog? Answer: he doesn't really care about policy. He cares about America winning, America asserting its power, America serving the popular desires of Americans. He does not feel the need to be consistent in policy, only consistent in seeking policies that reflect the voters' will.
Trump is transitioning, right now, before our eyes, shedding unpopular GOP policies.
***He wants the GOP to change its abortion stance to allow abortions in some cases, which is popular. (Current GOP platform says NO abortions ever, a tough position to run on.)
***He now says he wants very rich people to pay more in taxes, not less, which offends traditional GOP orthodoxy of trickle down, but is very popular.
***He is announcing his openness to LGTB position on bathrooms, which is popular with young people.
Text of a "Stop-Trump" TV ad run in Wisconsin:
That ad was intended to hurt Trump. The GOP donor class is out of touch.
This attack ad against Trump explains the problem that GOP orthodoxy is having with middle and working class voters, and why Trump is upsetting the GOP policy orthodoxy. The elites want tough-love trickle down with tax cuts for the rich and austerity for the poor, and want the poor to like it. Trump says the people deserve a bigger slice of the pie and the government is here to give it to them. Voters prefer Trump.
Trump is flexible and is now sounding almost liberal. He isn't saying, as Bill Clinton did, that the "era of Big Government is over." He is saying, as did FDR, that government is here to serve the people by building infrastructure, by adopting policies to help workers, to tax the rich, to defend against frightening enemies, and by directly helping the needy.
Big government on behalf of the people: this is a rejection of Reaganism and an embrace of an earlier, very popular set of policies at a time of economic stress: the New Deal.
Getting unstuck in the mud of past impressions will not be easy for Trump because first impressions are hard to shed, but he is making the effort. Trump may appear "presidential" at last. Trump cites George Patton and Douglas McArthur as military models. Is his unfair treatment of Muslims presidential? Well, FDR interred Japanese because FDR said they couldn't be trusted. Better safe than sorry. America has since apologized for doing this, but it was popular when FDR did it, and now Trump is openly voicing suspicion of Muslims. Some people are appalled--how un-American. But in the moment of uncertainty, 1942, American interred Americans of Japanese extraction and it took 46 years for George H W Bush to sign an apology. Trump is modeling FDR, not Bush.
Trump has always been the "change" candidate and now he is shaping himself toward more of a compassionate populist who rejects the special interests and brings back into alignment the government and the will of the people.
Hillary, for now, continues to lead a coalition of aggrieved interest groups, which may be a winning hand. There are a lot of women, Hispanics, blacks, and liberals who want a new Supreme Court. But her situation is complicated by the fact that voters seem to be saying they are tired of the current political establishment and they believe that the special interests of money, PACs and K-Street are screwing the average person. Voters are supporting candidates who say government and the interests and will of the people are not aligned. Whatever Hillary said to the people at Goldman Sachs is troubling to lots of people and we will likely keep hearing about it and Hillary is keeping the mystery and conspiracy alive. She scoffs when people say she is "establishment", but she is not doing what she needs to do to show she is in fact independent enough to be "Fighting for Us", her campaign slogan.
Voters want change. They want to press reset on the special interests. They want a new deal, and for that FDR, the author of the original New Deal, is the role model.
Hillary may think she is the successor to FDR. But so may Trump.
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| Transition for Trump |
***He wants the GOP to change its abortion stance to allow abortions in some cases, which is popular. (Current GOP platform says NO abortions ever, a tough position to run on.)
***He now says he wants very rich people to pay more in taxes, not less, which offends traditional GOP orthodoxy of trickle down, but is very popular.
***He is announcing his openness to LGTB position on bathrooms, which is popular with young people.
Text of a "Stop-Trump" TV ad run in Wisconsin:
That ad was intended to hurt Trump. The GOP donor class is out of touch.
This attack ad against Trump explains the problem that GOP orthodoxy is having with middle and working class voters, and why Trump is upsetting the GOP policy orthodoxy. The elites want tough-love trickle down with tax cuts for the rich and austerity for the poor, and want the poor to like it. Trump says the people deserve a bigger slice of the pie and the government is here to give it to them. Voters prefer Trump.
Trump is flexible and is now sounding almost liberal. He isn't saying, as Bill Clinton did, that the "era of Big Government is over." He is saying, as did FDR, that government is here to serve the people by building infrastructure, by adopting policies to help workers, to tax the rich, to defend against frightening enemies, and by directly helping the needy.
Big government on behalf of the people: this is a rejection of Reaganism and an embrace of an earlier, very popular set of policies at a time of economic stress: the New Deal.
Getting unstuck in the mud of past impressions will not be easy for Trump because first impressions are hard to shed, but he is making the effort. Trump may appear "presidential" at last. Trump cites George Patton and Douglas McArthur as military models. Is his unfair treatment of Muslims presidential? Well, FDR interred Japanese because FDR said they couldn't be trusted. Better safe than sorry. America has since apologized for doing this, but it was popular when FDR did it, and now Trump is openly voicing suspicion of Muslims. Some people are appalled--how un-American. But in the moment of uncertainty, 1942, American interred Americans of Japanese extraction and it took 46 years for George H W Bush to sign an apology. Trump is modeling FDR, not Bush.
Trump has always been the "change" candidate and now he is shaping himself toward more of a compassionate populist who rejects the special interests and brings back into alignment the government and the will of the people.
Hillary, for now, continues to lead a coalition of aggrieved interest groups, which may be a winning hand. There are a lot of women, Hispanics, blacks, and liberals who want a new Supreme Court. But her situation is complicated by the fact that voters seem to be saying they are tired of the current political establishment and they believe that the special interests of money, PACs and K-Street are screwing the average person. Voters are supporting candidates who say government and the interests and will of the people are not aligned. Whatever Hillary said to the people at Goldman Sachs is troubling to lots of people and we will likely keep hearing about it and Hillary is keeping the mystery and conspiracy alive. She scoffs when people say she is "establishment", but she is not doing what she needs to do to show she is in fact independent enough to be "Fighting for Us", her campaign slogan.
Voters want change. They want to press reset on the special interests. They want a new deal, and for that FDR, the author of the original New Deal, is the role model.
Hillary may think she is the successor to FDR. But so may Trump.
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