Trump brand getting squeezed by Cruz

Doing relatively well isn't good enough.   Trump needs to win.

Donald Trump's brand is competence, the can-do dealmaker.  Trump campaign mistakes are hurting his brand.

Donald Trump ended the speech I attended in Boca Raton with the lines that have recently become the regular format, paraphrased as:   We're going to start winning in America again, we are going to win and win and win.  You're going to love winning and its going to keep happening and there will be more winning and more winning and pretty soon you're going to say 'Donald, we can't take any more winning, we're winning so much' but we will win some more, win, win, win, win, thank you everyone!

Meanwhile earthbound Hillary talks about policy changes.    Hillary explains why "Medicare for All!" was not part of the Affordable Care Act, describing the legislative history going back to Hillary-care in 1994--to Teddy Roosevelt, actually, then the link between healthcare and employers an accident of WW2 limits on wage hikes but not benefits, then the various compromises and need to abandon a "public option" and Medicare for All being simply a bridge too far given a Republican filibuster threat.

Trump has a much simpler and clearer plan:    “I would end Obamacare and replace it with something terrific, for far less money for the country and for the people.”

There you are.

And he will immediately fix whatever is wrong with the Iran nuclear deal, he will deport undocumented people here, he will build a border wall that Mexico will pay for, he will get China and Japan to import more and export less.   Trump is confident.  He stands tall at the lectern and tells the audience about results.   He says he can get things done.  He will shake up the establishment, knock heads, demand action, slash through red tape, and get results. 

People believe it.   He seems so sure.  He is a master deal-maker.   He can talk our enemies into doing things against their own interest.  He has the knack.

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But now he has a problem, of mere moderate voter success and failure at getting his share of delegates.   Trump needs to look competent to protect his brand, and his campaign is messing up.   Trump isn't hurt by having big opponents.   A big "Stop Trump" movement only shows how grand is Trump's treat to the special interests in the establishment.  What hurts Trump's brand is bad staffing and incompetence.  

Cruz is moving in and expanding his brand at Trump's expense.  Cruz's brand included being the candidate who fellow-senators didn't like, but disliked because Cruz was so pure and holier than thou.  Cruz wasn't supposed to be the effective one, just the pure one.  In fact, the Trump argument is that Cruz is ineffective because he is so pure and disliked.

 But this is changing because of facts on the ground: Cruz is convincing delegates to go with him.  Trump is supposedly the one who can negotiate successfully but Cruz is the one who is actually doing it.   This is good for Cruz and disastrous for Trump.  

Not a good look for Trump

Cruz is moving in onto Trump's brand turf by becoming the competent one, causing a shift in brand attributes.  If Cruz is the one who understands delegate politics then Trump slides from being the "ultra-competent deal-winning showman politician" into simply being a showman politician (which then slides easily into the notion of mere clown-politician.)   Cruz grows from being the consistent and pure ultra-conservative into the guy who shows that being consistent and pure is actually empowering--something Cruz has been saying all along, arguing that only a pure conservative will turn out the apathetic vote that stayed home for McCain and Romney.    Cruz, not Trump, can close the deal.

"Losing" damages the Trump brand

Trump's brand carried within it the notion that he could defy workaday reality and do miraculous deals.  But if he cannot convince loyal Colorado and Louisiana Republicans to support him instead of an unlikeable Lie'n Ted then how could he possibly convince Mexico to pay for a wall, China to damage its economy by raising the value of its currency, and Congress to pass a "something terrific" as a health care bill.   

GOP voters seemed ready to accept that Trump can do miracles in deal making.  So now he needs to do a couple of them, starting with some uncommitted delegates.