Thursday, March 10, 2016

Why Trump and Bernie are succeeding

Both Trump and Bernie are shaking things up.   They won in Michigan, a big state and one representative of someplace normal, not needing an explanitory asterisk for being a favorite son.  Part of what they are doing right is what the GOP and Democratic orthodoxy are doing wrong.


Republicans.   The orthodox positions try to stitch together big contradictions.  Mitt Romney and George W. Bush are two examples of party standard bearers who represented the orthodox suite of positions.  Republicans are supposedly the party of small government but are also the party of aggressive national defense and proactive foreign intervention.  Throughout history big wars have meant big centralized states and the means to pay for them by collecting taxes.  It has been true for Chinese emperors, for French Kings, and for the USA beginning with the first big war in 1861.  The GOP is the party that advocates libertarian freedom, low regulations, and personal freedom, especially on guns, yet simultaneously is the party of intrusive government when it comes to abortion, gay marriage, drugs, and non-conforming lifestyles.  It is the party that celebrates the hardworking immigrant narrative but is culturally uncomfortable with immigrants and is contesting over who can best keep them out or at least keep them powerless.  And the establishment orthodoxy attempts to sell a fragile and unappealing product: that people can have small government and low taxes which mean that the wealthy get richer but that money will trickle down even though working people have not observed it to do so, but they should vote GOP because its candidates can be trusted to fight abortion and gays and to be openly Judeo Christian.  It is a tough sell, but orthodox Republicans try to do it.  But not Trump.


Meanwhile the Democratic orthodoxy as shaped by Bill Clinton is exposed as unworkable.  Clintonian Democratic orthodoxy says that free trade causes all boats to rise, that cooperation with international organizations is good, and that the fact that a great majority of people are not thriving is due to the oppression of the traditional power structure which creates barriers holding back women, blacks, immigrants, single mothers, Muslims, Hispanics, and the non college educated.   The solution, as Hillary puts it, is to break the barriers with affirmative programs to even the playing field.    The problem with that is that many people do not want to feel like victims and white males don't want to be told they are oppressors.   Hillary is dissing them, so it is not surprising that so many white males in Michigan abandoned her and that young people everywhere are looking for a candidate that will break through the cycle of oppression rather than one who hopes to manage it.  Plus, since Democrats are the party of inclusion for the oppressed, Democrats cannot acknowledge the xenophobia and discomfort many American have with people with different religions, customs, and cultures.  Indeed, Democratic candidates not only cannot acknowledge it, they have to condemn it when others express it, which creates a body of people unhappy with "political correctness".    Most Americans choose to live in communities of like minded people, something Democrats recognize when they are targeting precincts for GOTV, but which they must ignore--or stigmatize--when talking policy.  So, in a time of Boston Marathon bombings and San Bernardino shootings Democratic candidates cannot acknowledge the nervousness felt by many voters in their own base.

Trump and Sanders are imperfect messagers of change.  Trump is Las Vegas tacky which offends the socially traditional base of the party.  Bernie isn't a protectionist liberal: he calls himself a socialist and has a long consistent history saying things which Republican TV ads will make sound extreme.

But both of them understand something.  The orthodox party positions don't serve the needs of a big part of their bases, especially the people for whom the effects of globalism has been declining incomes and frustration with politics that no longer work for them.

So they are mad as hell and they are voting for someone who promises change.

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