Rubio was the expression of the George W. Bush coalition, and it just died.
I was there in Hialeah, a Cuban-American-immigrant neighborhood of greater Miami to watch the sentimental homecoming. He went home for the hospice phase of his campaign.
I have three brief observations on his campaign.
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| Home to Cuban-America roots in Hialeah |
The first was that the Rubio suite of opinions were the logical extension of the Republican coalition that had worked. Both of Oregon's senators, Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley, told me that viewed objectively Marco Rubio had extraordinary political skills, one of which was the ideological flexibility to shift his opinions to stay in the shifting political sweet spot. They saw him up close in the Senate and thought he could be a formidable challenge in the general election. He was well spoken and good looking. And Rubio was positioned to hold the old successful GOP constituency together: the Christian values anti abortion group; the neoconservative hawkish pro-intervention national security group; the cut taxes and regulation donor group; and the compassionate-conservative group who want to take some of the sharp edges off of the free market by sustaining Social Security and Medicare, programs voters like. And Rubio had the advantage of being young, good looking, and theoretically able to regain the Hispanic voters that George Bush had in Texas but Romney did not have in 2012. Senators Wyden and Merkley are political professionals and can judge political skills when they see them. Rubio had them. He might be a formidable candidate.
But it turned out he wasn't because in his own primary Republican voters wanted something else. Someone angry. Someone consistently pure in an anti-immigration stance and Rubio was caught by his Gang of Eight history. Voters didn't want immigration to work better. They wanted it to stop.
But it turned out he wasn't because in his own primary Republican voters wanted something else. Someone angry. Someone consistently pure in an anti-immigration stance and Rubio was caught by his Gang of Eight history. Voters didn't want immigration to work better. They wanted it to stop.
The second was that Rubio thought he found the sweet spot of Republican unity: attack Barrack Obama. The one thing that apparently united all GOP primary voters was a visceral hatred of Obama. "Let's dispel the notion that Barrack Obama does not know what he is doing. He knows exactly what he is doing." And what Obama was doing, Rubio said, was intentionally attempting to weaken and destroy America so that our country--indeed our civilization--would be turned over to enemies who would take away our freedoms and kill us. His point was that the problems and challenges in America were not the accidents and frustrations of a complicated world; no, they were the result of the intentional treason of a president who hates our country.
The president hates America and is working to destroy it. Is this a wild and shocking accusation? Not with Republican audiences, who applauded the sentiment.
Yet, the expression of the sentiment injured his campaign, not because the idea was wild but because the expression was "on message" and therefore repeated verbatim 4 times in a debate. "Let's dispel the notion that Barrack Obama does not know what he is doing. He knows exactly what he is doing." It was canned, somehow revealing Rubio to be unprepared for the real world. In a Trump-focused campaign neither opponents nor press questioned the factual premise that was the heart of his message he called hopeful and optimistic because upon his election the president would be replaced by someone who loved America and would work for its greatness not its destruction.
Yet, the expression of the sentiment injured his campaign, not because the idea was wild but because the expression was "on message" and therefore repeated verbatim 4 times in a debate. "Let's dispel the notion that Barrack Obama does not know what he is doing. He knows exactly what he is doing." It was canned, somehow revealing Rubio to be unprepared for the real world. In a Trump-focused campaign neither opponents nor press questioned the factual premise that was the heart of his message he called hopeful and optimistic because upon his election the president would be replaced by someone who loved America and would work for its greatness not its destruction.
The third is a look at body language: Rubio's. Earlier in the campaign Rubio was in full contrast to Jeb Bush. Jeb slumped and looked hang-dog all the time. "Weak Jeb. Loser Jeb." The criticism worked because Jeb looked and sounded exhausted.
Rubio looked eager. Hands up, head erect. Powerful. Energetic. It is interesting to me how clearly politicians reflect how they feel about their message in their body language and tone. In the Hialeah event Rubio expressed "last gasp", and at least 60% of the event was in Spanish. It was a plea, a 'Hail, Mary." He was no longer making a national message; it was a local boy come home message to his "homies."
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| November in New Hampshire: youth and strength |
Rubio looked eager. Hands up, head erect. Powerful. Energetic. It is interesting to me how clearly politicians reflect how they feel about their message in their body language and tone. In the Hialeah event Rubio expressed "last gasp", and at least 60% of the event was in Spanish. It was a plea, a 'Hail, Mary." He was no longer making a national message; it was a local boy come home message to his "homies."
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| Downer |
And last night, even as he spoke familiar words about the greatness of America and its people, his head was bowed and he shook his head "no" back and forth three times even as his mouth was saying "hopeful and optimistic".
"While this may not have been the year for a hopeful and optimistic message about our future, I still remain hopeful and optimistic about America."
See it for yourself at 1.45 in this video clip:
http://goo.gl/8zkgKy
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| Saying optimistic, head shaking no" |
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