Guest Post: Democrats are "Trump Country", Too

Peter Sage:   Thad Guyer is an attorney who represents whistleblowing employees, so he pays close attention to what kinds of messages are persuasive to judges and juries.  He follows this election from abroad, currently in Vietnam, so he is especially attuned to anti-immigration agitation--now riots--growing in Europe.  Since Thad is immersed in a foreign culture and trying to understand the thousands of ways one acts to "do things correctly", he has heightened awareness of the attachment a people have to their own culture and therefore to the discomfort--or anger--one experiences when newcomers arrive.    

In Vietnam there is a correct way to arrange different foods onto a plate, he has explained to me.  Correctly placed and separated, the food is delicious, but placed so they touch or mix the food is inedible and fit only for pigs.  It takes a generation or two or more for a person to understand a new culture and until then he can be understood as oafish, rude, hostile, or a deadly threat.   Nativist, culture protecting, politics shouldn't be a surprise, and the current crop of immigrants and refugees are entering countries already stressed by high unemployment and the aftershocks of the financial crisis.

Ethnic Boston's response to busing in of black schoolchildren

I have encouraged Thad's guest posts because that insight has helped him--and therefore us--better understand why audiences and voters have been attracted to nativist candidates around the world, and Trump here in the USA.   Thad's insights are shorter and easier to read than an academic version of the same thing, but Samuel B. Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order predicted that in the aftermath of the Soviet vs. West duel the next struggles in the world would be over religion and culture.   The battle in the Republican Party today is about exactly that.   And as I wrote yesterday in my observations about the ethnic tensions in Democratic Boston, and Thad writes today, this is a struggle which involves a big block of Democrats.  Hillary needs to watch out.  A lot of Democrats think Trump talks exactly the kind of common sense our leaders should be saying--and Hillary is not.


Here is Thad Guyer's Comment:


Here is a friendly amendment to your thesis statement: “Trump is re-aligning the Republican and Democratic parties, turning both from globalist coalitions with traditionalist voters into a populist nativist movement." Soon Democrats will have to come to terms with the reality that Trump is a cross-over candidate on his populist issues. Even six weeks ago he was already polling at least 20% support from Democrats, and some analysts think this could dramatically rise. (The Hill, http://goo.gl/okYZSf, 01/09/2016). “A new survey shows a sizable number of Democrats ready to defect from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump”, said U.S. News & World Report in January. http://goo.gl/h0UlBH.

Trump’s unrelenting truism that “without borders we don’t have a country” has deep appeal regardless of party. More concerning, Hillary’s “don’t deport anybody” primary stance is going to be very tricky to get out for the general election, because if she doesn’t get out of it, the election will be Trump’s to lose. The daily migrant riots in Greece and France will only grow with media images of Muslim refugees attacking with battering rams and burning down encampments, and stoning police. The BBC, NYT and Washington Post are now regularly showing this dramatic "invasion" footage, and it only helps Trump. 
 
Mainstream media has missed, or been in denial, on every cue in understanding Trump from the start. The early myth that he was just a “white male” candidate has now been dramatically shattered by primaries showing growing support not only among white women, but across educational and income demographics. In summary within the Republican electorate in Florida now: “He leads with 51% of men, 51% of younger voters, 49% of moderates, 43% of somewhat conservative voters, 41% of seniors, 39% of women, and 39% of very conservative voters. There's not a single group we track he doesn't have a double digit lead with.” “Trump leads Rubio Even Head To Head in Florida”, (Public Policy Polling, 2/25/2016), http://goo.gl/V7SEKh. Think that is worrisome? He would probably win against Hillary in New York too. “Could Donald Trump Beat Hillary Clinton In New York?”, (Int’l Business Time, 2/29/2016) http://goo.gl/4UP0pQ.

Some Democratic analysts have been trying to sound the alarm that viewing and talking about Trump as just a Republican candidate is a misguided approach. “Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporters: A Certain Kind of Democrat”, Nate Cohn (NYT, 12/31/2015) http://goo.gl/SgxOIR. 

As Nate Silver warned yesterday:   “But we may be entering a new era, and through the broader sweep of American history, there’s sometimes been quite a bit of voting across party lines. The table below reflects, in each election since 1952, what share of a party’s voters voted against their party’s presidential candidate (e.g., a Democrat voting Republican or for a third-party ticket). There’s a lot of fascinating political history embedded in the table, but one theme is that divisive nominations have consequences.”    (FiveThirty Eight, 2/29/2016) http://goo.gl/vWJwEL.

A warning to Cruz and Sanders supporters.  Look at the 1964 and 1972 wipeouts

The "nativists" aren't just the Republicans, as UpClose likes to remind us. They are the majority of the American electorate. The sooner Hillary is done with Bernie the better—so she can turn right and move back to the center where she belongs, and where Democrats will best be positioned in the epic battle to come against Donald Trump. .