Marco Rubio "won" in Iowa by coming in third and looking like he might be the candidate who least disrupts the Republican coalition of interests.
Political parties are coalitions, and the modern Republican party--the party of Reagan, Dole, Bush 41 and 43, and Romney combine the following groups:
***traditional values voters, who are anti abortion, anti gay rights, pro prayer, best represented by Huckabee, Santorum, and now Cruz.
***national security voters, who want a stronger more aggressive national defense against the Soviets and Chinese in the 1960s and 1970s, the Soviets, Iranians, and Latin American social justice movements in the 1980s, Iraq, then Russia, and now China and radical Islam from 2001 to the present, best represented by Lindsey Graham.
***libertarian small government voters, who want fewer regulations, lower taxes, no gun restrictions, and a military centered on defense not foreign engagement, best represented by Rand Paul currently.
***the business wing, representing free markets, pro-immigration, opposition to unions, lower regulations on environment, reporting, fuel standards, wages and hours rules, lower taxes on the wealthiest, best represented by the silent forces behind the scenes on K Street and the funders of Super PACs, i.e. "the donor class."
The various wings are contradictory, but it hangs together, barely, if candidates give lip service in certain directions, but fail to make real changes. Candidates can speak sincerely to the values voters on abortion, saying whatever they want about how terrible it is, secure in knowing that the Supreme Court protects it and nothing will happen to cause real disruption with suburban women who actually like knowing there is access to abortion if their daughters really, really need it. Candidates can speak of the need for lower taxes and smaller government on principle but say that America's military threat requires greater military spending, half-pleasing both sides. Candidates can speak to the traditional values of native born Americans, praising Christ and nativity scenes in city parks while allowing immigration, thus giving values voters the symbols of tradition and businesses the low cost labor they favor.
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| At South Carolina Tea Party Convention |
Tump's blunt talk on immigration gave national focus to a Tea Party resentment that has been brewing but lacked national focus. Values voters were not simply concerned with big crosses in public spaces. They resented the whole suite of changes eroding their position of traditional primacy in America. Trump helped them realize that their interests were opposite to the business establishment wing. And self-funding Trump was in a position to expose that wing as crony capitalists out for themselves, not the regular American citizen.
Instead of papering over the divisions between the wings of the party with patriotic rhetoric, which Reagan did masterfully, Trump put the populist wing and national security wing in opposition to the small-government and business wing. As Trump defines it, compromise is weak.
Meanwhile, Cruz is breaking it apart a second way, in another direction. Cruz says the Republican Party is a "conservative" party, which he defines as unabashedly right wing and "anti-establishment". This means he fully embraces the traditional values voters, but divides up the national security and libertarian voters by wanting less nation-building abroad and a less intrusive national security state at home, supporting privacy over domestic surveillance. And he openly condemns the K-Street business wing for their bipartisanship and accommodation. As Cruz defines it, compromise is evil.
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| Cruz at Tea Party Convention |
Both Trump and Cruz both divide and remake (or destroy) the Republican Party.
There are some candidates who put it back together, papering over the division. Bush and Kasich and Graham (like Hillary Clinton) believe government to be all about incremental change and compromise. They criticize Democrats repeatedly, but not in a way that prohibits future bipartisan agreements so that the work of government can continue. They define Democrats as misguided, not satanic or as traitors. And they speak in an earnest tone.
The audiences are--so far--unimpressed. Business leaders like them and fund them. The New York Times endorsed Kasich. The donor class funded Bush's Super PACs. But their very "reasonableness" is what hurts them.
Rubio is the alternative voice, currently, who puts the Republican Party back together. Rubio is angry, not earnest. Rubio says Obama intentionally is attempting to destroy America because Obama hates God and the Constitution. Audiences like that kind of language.
Because Rubio speaks in general poetry of aspiration, about the Great American Century he can address the needs of each group without offending them. Rubio is everyone's second choice because his speeches are beautiful, but not specific. He loves God. He loves America. America should defeat its enemies.
But he may not be able to get away with it. His rivals are noting what becomes obvious if one sees multiple speeches by Rubio. Rubio is a performer with maybe an hour or so of material, beautiful poetry that serves as a magic act, putting Humpty Dumpty together.
Christie, on Rubio: "Unlike some of these other campaigns, I'm not the boy in the bubble, OK. We know who the boy in the bubble is up here, who never answers questions, who's constantly scripted and controlled because he can't answer your questions. . . . Maybe he'll do more than 40 minutes on a little stage telling everybody his canned speech that he's memorized."
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| Christie doing face to face campaigning |
What is happening in New Hampshire right now is a struggle over which of the three versions of the Republican Party will survive;
Trump: A populist nativist party comfortable with strong central authority.
Cruz: A very conservative party emphasizing traditional values and privacy.
Current Party: One that continues an uneasy accommodation of the current coalition.
It is not clear if the current coalition can continue because the actual fractures are too deep to paper over. Trump or Cruz may lead that new party. There is a struggle over which candidate will represent the current party coalition, if it can hang together. The current leading contenders are Rubio, Christie, Kasich, Bush. There is room for only one of them.
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