Last Night's Debate: What I saw

Presidential politics is a continuation of high school.   Trump has been the high school varsity quarterback, the big guy.   Last night a couple of sophomores challenged him.  

They didn't unseat him, but they made him fight back and they bruised him a little.  His ties are made in China.  There are some unhappy students at Trump University.  He hired foreign workers when Americans might have been available.  He may not be as anti-immigrant as Cruz.  

But people get bruised in fights, no big deal.  The big thing that happened is that Cruz and Rubio didn't cower and "make nice" with him; they challenged the big guy. 

Trump got hit but he didn't back down or fall down, and that is the biggest thing.


I do not believe that Trump is acting out of deep strategic calculation.   He is simply being who he instinctively is, and that it is entirely likely that he is what the times and circumstances favor in this election.   Better to be lucky than smart.   Trump has good timing.   And if there is another terrorist event somewhere in the world that dominates the news cycle for a week, even better for Trump.   Trump is the strong guy, the one who protects Americans when they are fearful.   Trump is already shaping himself for the general election.

He alluded to having taken on Hillary with the mention of Bill being a sexual predator and noted that she cowered.   Plus, Trump has become the moderate Republican still in the race.   He didn't need the Etch-a-Sketch mentioned by Romney's campaign last year; he just needed the comparison with Rubio and Cruz.

Trump began as the classic hard liner on immigration, the border, Mexicans, Muslims, etc.  He made the issue the 24/7 news story.   Last night Rubio and Cruz positioned themselves to be more anti-immigrant than Trump.   Trump wants to let some immigrants back in after they are deported, if they are "one of the good ones."   Rubio and Cruz called this heresy.  They are pure anti-immigrants, no entry, no citizenship.

Trump said that in America we would not have people 'dying on the streets" in front of hospitals having been denied health care.   This week Trump has been using that phrase "dying in the streets" and he used it again at the debate.   Surely Americans don't want people dying in the streets, surely that is too extreme, Trump said.   Rubio and Cruz called this heresy.    They are pure in saying health care is not a right. If you can't pay you don't get.

Cruz moving forward

Trump said he had been given awards by Israel as a friend of Israel and he would work with them to help them make peace with their neighbors.   Peace in the Middle East would be a high achievement for his presidency, Trump said.  Rubio and Cruz called this heresy.   They are unequivocal supporters of Israel, period.  Peace suggests compromise and Israel need not compromise because American will back them up whatever they do.

Trump said he opposes and would de-fund Planned Parenthood, but admitted that 97% of what it does is good. Rubio and Cruz called this heresy.  Planned Parenthood does abortions and the organization must be investigated, prosecuted, defunded, and destroyed.

Trump is positioned as the moderate, nuanced candidate now when considered against the backdrop of Cruz and Rubio.  The position Trump has staked out has been the one that has been the one that unified the Republican party.   The name is "compassionate conservative".  The word compassionate was intended to soften the hard edge of conservatism that would condemn ones immigrant nanny, have children die "on the streets" in front of hospitals, prefer religious conflict to peace, etc.    Rubio and Cruz are taking the position that Republicans want the hard discipline of orthodoxy.  Trump is positioned as the nice guy.   Strong, but in support of people, not ideology.