Alpha Male

This blog is themed "Up Close".   I am trying to understand the election by getting physically close to the candidates to look at the messages and non verbal signals.

My own sense is that the non verbal communication is much more powerful than the verbal communication.  The actual transcript denotation of candidates' stump speech words matters, but they are understood and interpreted by how one thinks and feels about the candidate.

We have a "gut feeling" about candidates.  Trump strong.  Jeb weak. Hillary shady.  Bernie authentic socialist. Kasich safe and mild. Rubio young and untested.  Cruz righteous but nasty.

Maniac political observers like me look at policy and data, but I recognize most people don't.  Moreover, I believe that even close observers like myself put policy and data into the frame of our pre-existing gut feelings about the candidate.   The gut interprets with the ears hear.

The easiest and most clear examples of this are the gut feelings regarding Bush--weak and low energy--as defined by Trump, augmented by Bush's own self-destructive body language communication and tone.

Whipped 

Trump described Bush as weak, and did so with a sneering tone of dismissal.   At first Bush was considered the dominant candidate, the one who came out of the blocks with a "shock and awe" $100 million SuperPAC.   Trump established himself as willing to take on the supposed big boy, and made it stick, making Trump the alpha male.   It worked.

Bush's behavior quickly confirmed the notion.    What did Jeb Bush do?

1.  He complained about the insult.  He seemed whiney and indignant.   (Complaining is weak, hitting back is strong.)

2.  His body language was weak, not commanding and confident.   I have shown photos I took of Bush in New Hampshire in November when his staff foolishly placed me onto the stage next to him, where I photographed him from behind.   There is no shortage of other examples, documented by others, 
including the 57 seconds of video at a Town Hall when he attempted to hit back by calling Trump "a jerk".   He said this saying it was therapeutic for him because he had to get this off his chest.   

Take a moment and think.   Can there be a weaker reason to denounce an opponent??  That you need the therapy?!   Trump had been insulting women, and Bush might have said he was doing it to defend women, something strong men do.  No. It was about Bush's own weakness.  And he made his statement arms hanging, looking hang dog, like a young man being chewed out by a coach for not hustling on the field.

You only have one chance to make a first impression.  Trump's impression was alpha.  Bush looked bushed.

I don't think Bush can change this powerful first impression of himself but his Right to Rise SuperPAC has begun to try. with this new commercial that has just gone up in South Carolina.  It is instructive because it is clear that, via a commercial, they know they have a problem and are trying to fix it.  They are attempting to reposition Bush as alpha.    Click it to see the 30 second ad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xExMuvib6ZM

Transcript:  "While some candidates suck up to Trump or run away from him in fear, Jeb Bush isn't afraid.   He stands up to Trump for his liberal Democratic positions, calls out Trump for insulting women, attacking the disabled, even trashing a decorated warrior.   Jeb Bush, the better man, the real conservative.  A commander in chief."

***Cruz sucks up to Trump.   Cruz sounds tough but he hid out from a fight.  Not like Bush.

***Marco hides from Trump.   Young, weak Marco, with his little scripted sound bites.  Marco isn't ready to take on a bully.

***It shows photos of a younger Trump, getting smiled at by Hillary.  Today's Trump looks mature and younger Trump looks like a pampered rich kid in comparison.

***It contrasts Trump's draft deferments with McCain.  (Nearly every middle class kid attempted to get and keep draft deferments in 1965-72, including me.   Not using a draft deferment back in the late 1960s would be like intentionally overpaying ones income tax.  The deferment kept one out of an unpopular war.  Being drafted was punishment for skipping classes in college.  Being drafted was an alternative offered people who would otherwise faced jail.  Still, it implies weakness or cowardice.)

***It condemns Trump for insulting women, the disabled, and McCain the war hero.   

Finally!   Here Bush is fighting on behalf of others, not out of therapy. Bush the hero, defending the imperiled.

***Most significant, Jeb intentionally gives Trump a "tap and run" thump.   Understand, this is not an injury thump, nor is it a love pat. And it is less than a "shove".  It is a dominance thump, described by a horsewoman and trainer as a "pat and run".  He walks past Trump, gives him the pat,  smirks, and keeps walking.   

There wasn't a chance for a real confrontation because Jeb Bush kept walking. Trump looks surprised and indignant.  It was soft enough not to be an "assault and battery", I suppose, and it was arguably simply an effort to keep from bumping Trump, or a pat of acknowledgement of his presence.  In short, it was defensible with an almost straight face, but what it actually was is obvious:  Jeb intentionally pushed Trump.   The beta male is testing the alpha.   

More than a love pat

So there!

Putin: the Russian Rival

I think it is too late for Bush.   But the fact that they are trying, at long last, to fix the problem  shows that--six months into the campaign--they finally figured something out: we are electing a commander in chief and Bush did not appear to be one.   But Trump did.