Peter's Report on Iowa:
I thought Trump would do better than he did, believing the polls that he was way ahead and thinking that the enthusiasm I saw in crowds that came out would translate to people coming out to caucus. I was wrong. (But I think what happened to Trump will work out to be the most important thing that happened last night. See below.)
 |
| Gracious in defeat |
And I was confident that Cruz would do well. I was right. I knew there is an earnest invisible network of very religious people who want a candidate who puts God and the Lord Jesus Christ right in the middle of his campaign. These people made Huckabee and Santorum the winners in 2008 and 2012, and Cruz talks unabashedly to these people.
I was surprised by Rubio doing as well as he did. Rubio seems to be consolidating the votes of the Republicans who don't want the system disrupted too much. He is nice looking and he smiles and he doesn't say he will destroy the current Republican coalition (big and small business, aggressive military, traditional religion, guns, anti-abortion, reduced regulation) but his ads are as harsh as those of Cruz, implying the country is now in the hands of traitors. Democratic traitors. Click on these 30 second ads:
1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pkliiTnwO8
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dw_-QQf-N1s
Both ads assert the premise that he loves God, America, and the Constitution and that Obama and Clinton do not. Strong stuff. The music in the background is not ominous; it is swelling with uplift and optimism because everything will be put right when he is in office.
Would such a strong statement of contempt for Hillary work with Democrats and Non Affiliated voters in the fall? Possibly. The Sanders vote is an ominous portend.
Looking ahead:
Trump's post-election speech was the most important thing to happen last night. It was about the future, not the past. He sounded gracious. He thanked Iowa, said he loved Iowa, said he would be back soon, that he would buy a farm there. He did not do something outside the box and newsworthy. He did what a real pro would do: look happy and look forward. It was sound politics, not attention-grabbing news.
Trump would be all over the news today if he had done something like criticize the Iowa caucus system for being crazy and capricious, leading to crazy unjust results (which is undeniably true. (Did Huckabee and Santorum become president?)
Trump would be all over the news today had he belittled a couple of easy targets (Congressman King who supported Cruz) or the Des Moines Register which endorsed Rubio, saying that King is an outlier extremist congressman (undeniably true, which King would embrace) and that the Register is losing readers like a leaking ship (true for them as with every other print newspaper.)
He didn't. He was gracious. This is the most important thing to happen last night.
Trump now realizes that the race is between someone acceptable to the Republican Party elites--the donor class and incumbent politicians--and someone unacceptable to the Party. People were starting to get used to Trump, coming to terms with the idea that he could be the nominee and that this wouldn't be all bad. He brought in votes and new constituencies, the single most useful thing for a part leader. Indeed, given Trump's talk of a "great big door" maybe the talk was aggressive so the actual implementation could be moderate. Trump talked like a destroyer which people wanted, but in reality he is a deal-maker, they figure. (Like Reagan with abortion. He called it an abomination but in reality let it happen and expand.)
The real revolutionary in the race is Cruz, not Trump, they realize. Trump would be in a position to re-align the party as a majority party centered around populism but the economic elites in business and K Street can adjust to the rhetoric but the system would stay the same. Trump wouldn't be prosecuting anyone. They realize that people are insisting on some tough talk but the Supreme Court will protect their right to lobby and "petition the government for redress of grievances", i.e. keep K Street in the middle of things. Trump wouldn't be perfect, but the elites could adjust, and besides he would be way better than any Democrat and both Sanders and Hillary Clinton have revved up their anti-Wall Street talk.
 |
| Legitimized as Top Tier |
So, last nignt Trump sounded like a "regular" good gracious politician because that is what a guy in the position be a GOP standard bearer would do. It is in fact a two person race:
Cruz who is in fact a right wing revolutionary who would make the Republican party a minority conservative party. Or Trump, a northeast moderate who leads a populist party with a trade policy that is more protectionist.
Trump will now have to smash his real rival: Marco Rubio.
2 comments:
Given Sanders' showing in Iowa, do you think that the corporate media, which to date has been trying to deny him coverage and thus name recognition and credibility, can continue to do so?
Sanders is absolutely genuine. He is Sanders on the surface, and below that and below that. Every Russian doll in side Sanders is more Sanders. I love that and so do voters. And because he is genuine he never got rich, never developed a big corporate donor-sponsor, which confirms his authenticity. Bernie's person contrasts well with Hillary. Hillary is a progressive but she cozied up to rich and powerful friends. Liberals don't like that. But my travels have put me into the company of many Republicans, at Town Halls, rallies, quiet conversations. Liberals don't think Hillary is good enough, and everyone thinks she is compromised. But most people see her as very, very liberal--everyone but liberals. The public support for Cruz reminds me of the progressive left's support for Bernie. If it weren't for the nuclear war and the deaths of hundreds of millions of people, and the destruction of a moderate liberal safety net, and the re-establishment of religion in America, and a century of effect on the judicial system assuming America survives the nuclear wars, then I would be ok with our side nominating our own uncompromising liberal, just to see what happens. Bernie reveals Hillary's flaws, just as Trump revealed Jeb Bush's flaws. I wish we had more viable choices. I was alive and well in 1972, and quit grad school in part because of what I saw happening to McGovern. Sanders is McGovern. I still have a McGovern poster up in my house.
Post a Comment