"On 17 and 18 September 2024, thousands of handheld pagers and hundreds of walkie-talkies intended for use by Hezbollah exploded simultaneously across Lebanon and Syria in an Israeli attack."Wikipedia's summary of the event
We just learned a whole new way to kill people.
This isn't over.
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| The Economist |
I hadn't thought to be afraid that some object I or fellow Americans carry could be sabotaged and made to explode. Now I do.
Israel did more than fire a weapon to injure and kill people, although it did that. It also sent a powerful message: "You thought you were safe, but you weren't. We can get you in this extraordinarily clever way."
The attack on September 11, 2001 was not an attempt to kill a few thousand people, although it did that. It was primarily a message to tell the U.S. to get out of Saudi Arabia or pay a price at home. The message was a complaint that U.S. businesses and troops were unwelcome in and around Saudi people and holy places. You don't belong. Your culture and behavior disgust us. The message may have a hint of familiarity, especially this week. Americans don't eat cats and dogs but we eat pork, which is unclean and disgusting to traditional values in much of the Middle East. Americans drink alcohol, which God forbids. American women are grossly immodest by Saudi standards. Americans disrupt Saudi traditions and way of life. It is a message political and spiritual leaders employ to rally support: defend "our kind" against an invasion of the "other." If some people are hurt, it is okay. Sudden death sends a message.
The Israeli attack was so successful and shocking that I expect it to inspire copycats. Israel disrupted future attacks by eliminating Hezbollah leadership and destroying their communications network. But most important is the psychological effect on Hezbollah through the powerful message of "you are not safe." The explosions will sow suspicion and division. They will increase cost and friction of their operations. They will need to expend resources defending against an attack that could come from anywhere.
The pager explosions cause me to rethink the risks Americans face. Consumer products can be sabotaged and set off with a signal, i.e. a phone call. Bombs can be placed inconspicuously nearly anywhere, either inside a connected device or connected to one via Bluetooth. Nearly every adult American carries a phone. They are part of our lives. Our cars are tracking devices. So are "smart" appliances in our homes. So are doorbells and alarm systems. So are our electric meters. Alexa is listening and she knows where we are and where we plan to go. So does Siri.
We need to rethink the vulnerabilities in modern American life. Targeted explosions on high-profile people -- people who represent a cause or institution -- send a message. Regular Americans, living with no thought whatever that they might be a target, will get on airplanes or attend crowded public events where an explosion sends a message.
The 9/11 attack sent a wave of changes in American laws and behavior. Flying became more complicated and expensive. Mail slowed, as it got inspected for anthrax. The Patriot Act made financial transactions slower and less private. I expect TSA screening to adjust to a higher, more cumbersome, more expensive level of security. Supply chains of hundreds of connected devices will need to be hardened. That will be expensive and it will be incomplete. These will be factories making toasters or suitcases, not nuclear weapons. Bombs need not be inside the connected device. Devices connect. A bomb can be secreted inside something larger and presumably innocuous, set off by a signal. One does not need thousands of targets to send a message. Five executives at JPMorgan being killed on an otherwise-quiet workday would send shockwaves. Was it the loan they announced to an Israeli tech firm? A new round of security would emerge if a U.S. senator were killed. Or employees at the Pentagon. Or bombs going off in school lunchboxes.
Israel did not create Pandora's box. It has been here all along. But this week we saw a demonstration run, a proof of concept. But I don't expect this to be a one-off and I don't expect the U.S. to remain a bystander. The opportunities for disruption are too great to ignore. The 9/11 plot required finding 19 people willing to die for their cause. Secreting bombs into objects owned by targeted people only requires burglars who can sneak into a space, insert a device, and disappear. There are more burglars than suicide bombers.
This happened to Hezbollah, but there is no reason to think it stops there. Life in America is going to get more dangerous and expensive.
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