What's a California Democat to do?

Eric Swalwell is out.

In Swalwell's absence, the California gubernatorial contest has no clear Democratic frontrunner.  

California has a "jungle" primary, not partisan primaries.  Everyone from any party enters the race. The top two finishers face off in a general election. Two Republicans and seven Democrats are in the race. This sets the stage for a vote split so evenly among Democrats that the two Republicans win the California primary election. The clock is ticking. Some Democrats need to drop out. Somebody needs to push ahead. 

Tony Farrell was a classmate at college, then spent four years in the Navy before getting an MBA at the Harvard Business School. He had a successful career as a brand strategist at The Gap, The Nature Company, and The Sharper Image. Tony lives among the comfortable people in the San Francisco Bay Area who play an outsize role in funding the campaigns of candidates. The future of California depends on Tony and people like him. But which candidate?

Tony is photographed with his wife Kathy in San Francisco's Chinatown. He asked that we notice the clean streets.

Guest Post by Tony Farrell

Letter from a Californian

Good grief. The fall of East Bay Congressman Eric Swalwell has awakened interest in a boring, chaotic and confusing contest among virtual unknowns, each wanting to be the governor who replaces Gavin Newsom.

Until this scandal, it was hard to follow this race, or care. People favored Swalwell from afar, especially as foil to Trump. He did a good job for Pelosi on the January 6th committee; performed well for her in both of Trump’s impeachments. Swalwell once served in the Alameda County DA’s office, cradle of stars like Earl Warren and Ed Meese (covering all bases). Leading significantly, this was Eric’s race to lose. Then, for shameful behavior that would barely nick Trump’s ear (so to speak), Swalwell takes a headshot. 

Notably, California’s savviest politico (Pelosi) did not endorse Swalwell (nor anyone else). Kamala passed on a winning opportunity, saving herself for a losing chance at the White House, again. California voters are left with Democrats Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, Matt Mahan, Betty Yee, Xavier Becerra, Antonio Villaraigosa and Tony Thurmond. (Yeah, exactly. Who?) Only nerds can keep up with California politics; I’m nerdy but typically bail out of endless voter surveys that relentlessly probe for my thoughts on people I know nothing about, on issues I’m ignorant of. To an embarrassing extent, I rely on endorsements. A local politician-friend recommends the moderate San Jose mayor Matt Mahan, so I’ll go with him.

The race is now so scrambled there’s concern among pundits that the two Republicans running could emerge from the nonpartisan top-two June primary to run against each other in November. One is Chad Bianco, the sheriff who seized, as fraudulent, 650,000 Riverside County ballots from last year’s Prop 50 vote on redistricting; and Steve Hilton of Fox News, endorsed by Trump. That is bad.

I still believe everything I wrote here (March 23, 2023) in support of Newsom for president. Widely mocked as “a guy you’d like to have a glass of Chardonnay with,” some opine Gavin is unelectable. But if both Obama and Trump can get elected twice, everyone should exit the prediction game. 

Seen as a centrist in California, Newsom projects leadership as a world statesman, in effect representing the U.S. at climate conferences in Brazil and economic gatherings in Europe. In just four months from start to an astounding 60-percent victory, he was masterful at initiating and funding Prop 50 last year, permitting California to redistrict if Texas does. He drove the 2025 laws that override local zoning and environmental hurdles, forcing every community to build housing to help make living more affordable. He strongly opposes the so-called billionaire “wealth tax” initiated by a service-workers’ union (and endorsed by Bernie Sanders).

 

$6.69 gas in a station near Tony's home

California is easy to bash. The Republican presidential campaign message against Newsom would write itself: Do you want to live in a West Coast hellhole? If Newsom’s so great, how come his cities are dirty and crime-ridden? Housing unaffordable? Population shrinking? Corporations leaving? Taxes too high? Gas over $7 a gallon?

I drive my late mother-in-law’s 2004 Acura, which requires hi-test gas, now costing $6.99 and 9/10ths cents (not quite $7.00, but close). Our gas is costly for many reasons, including a formulation that reduces the smog that once choked Los Angeles.

California is not perfect, but it has so many singular achievements: a spectacular thousand-mile coastline, open to the public and protected from development by the powerful Coastal Commission (1972) after the Santa Barbara oil spill (1969); the world’s greatest public university system (1882); practically inventing community colleges (1907); leading the way for democratic citizen initiatives (1911); pioneering environmental protections and the first national park. (The state boasts, separately, the tallest trees and the biggest trees and the oldest trees in the world.) California is the world’s fourth-largest economy (after the U.S., China, and Germany), leading with Silicon Valley technology; Central Valley agriculture; aerospace; entertainment. Food is great; weather’s great. It’s unbelievably beautiful; and the streets are clean enough.

Arguably, California takes bold, thoughtful action to address major concerns, and to seize big opportunities (e.g., electric vehicles), earlier and with greater positive impact any other state. In many ways, the U.S. is already led by California.

Biggest questions now are, who fills Newsom’s shoes? And who fills Trump’s? Might be related.

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Europeans agree with Trump: Their governments are losers

Field Report from Europe: Europeans know they have a problem. 

Donald Trump is a bully, sure, but he's not all bad. 

Guest Post author Thad Guyer offers a report that may surprise consumers of America's mainstream media. Europeans understand their governments have been incompetent. Trump isn't wrong when he insults them, and they don't hate him for it. 

Guyer was a legal services attorney for 30 years before transitioning into doing complex litigation defense of employee whistleblowers. That work took him to Europe, where he talks with politically engaged citizens. Immediately after Trump was first elected in 2016, Guyer was surprised to learn that people he spoke with were not as appalled by Trump as were American liberals. In a guest post dated November 15, 2016 he wrote:

I am lawyering in Geneva, Switzerland now, and was in Paris last week. I was ready for it again, the “what’s wrong with America” questions, this time about Trump rather than Bush. But I’m not getting it not now. 

Since 9/11, Europe has been repeatedly traumatized by radical Islamic terror, its borders overrun by millions of “irregular immigrants”, the loss of national identities and currencies as the EU and euro dissolved borders and sovereignty.

Donald Trump himself is not popular here, but “Trumpism” is. It inspires considerable awe and the spirit of self-determination. Trumpism is the story of American democratic grit, American power, the proof that Americans can innovate from moon shots to the internet to populist revolution. Europe remains steeped, and some here say trapped, in cultural and political tradition, but “those Americans” can just rise up one fine morning, say enough is enough, and cast off the political malaise and established political order.

Europeans have watched Trump for a decade. They have had lots of opportunities to be appalled, disgusted, and angry at Trump. He has been a bull in a European china shop. Guyer says that Europeans aren't as unhappy about Trump as Democrats in America may expect them to be.

Guyer

Guest Post by Thad Guyer 

A Report from Europe: What My Conversations Reveal About Trump, the U.S., and European Self-Loathing

I recently concluded a one-week trip through Europe, stopping in Belgrade, Paris, Marseille, Vienna, and Italy. I made a point of asking people I met—both friends and new acquaintances—simple questions about how they and their countrymen truly perceive Donald Trump and the United States.

What I heard was a fascinating mix of resentment, practical calculation, and a deep-seated sense of continental inadequacy.

Here are the key takeaways from those conversations: 

1. The U.S./Europe Friendship Will Survive

While many agree that Trump is a bully and is currently abusing an important friendship forged since the First World War, no one I spoke with is worried about the friendship actually ending. They view Trump as simply a politician who does not have the power to destroy the deep connection between the cultures and economies. This core relationship, they believe, will survive any political leader. 

2. Contempt for Their Own Leaders Runs Deep

There is an almost universal disdain for their own leaders, held in equal measure to their dislike of Trump. In fact, many agreed with Trump’s criticisms and verbal attacks on European politicians.

• French President Macron is viewed as weak and feckless.
• The leaders of Austria and Italy, in contrast, are seen as having learned to keep their mouths shut and avoid fighting Trump.
• The common view is that the European Union is always in disarray and will always be pushed around by the USA. Fighting Trump on tariffs is necessary, but fighting him on anything else is seen as stupid, given that he has all the power. The EU has no military, and Trump controls NATO.

3. The Iranian Conflict is the U.S.’s Problem

Europeans have nothing to say about the ongoing Iranian war. They hope the U.S. wins because Iran is viewed as sponsoring vicious and brutal attacks on European populations. The sentiment is that radical Islam is murderous and they would feel much safer if it could be wiped out. 

4. Oil Prices Are a Non-Issue 

Nobody in Europe gives a care about oil prices. If gas gets too high, they simply leave the car at home, thanks to incredible public transport infrastructure. European gas prices are always high, and they never expect the ridiculous $3 a gallon seen in the U.S. Americans, with their "big cars and trucks," are viewed as getting what they deserve for owning such gas guzzlers. 

5. Immigration Policy: The German Lesson and the Future

U.S. attempts to interfere with European immigration politics are seen as irritating, destructive, and destabilizing. While French and Austrian cities are filled with Muslim immigrants, the preference is to avoid upsetting these situations (the original email described these as "wasp nests").

There is a strong favor for strategies like quiet deportation, quiet arrest, weeding out the bad apples, and deterring illegal entry. The former German chancellor, Angela Merkel, is held in strong negative regard for "welcoming" a bunch of enclave immigrants who, it is believed, have zero interest in assimilating and only want to re-create their own countries within European borders. Enforcing rules against religious garb in schools and public places is considered crucially important. The long-term hope is that a couple of generations from now, everything will be okay — if they just keep the new ones out. 

The End Result: Collective Shame and Self-Loathing

My overall impression is that Trump and the U.S. political/economic dominance have fostered a kind of self-loathing in Europe.

The U.S. is seen as racing ahead in everything from military domination, unrestricted AI empowerment, and SpaceX, to moon missions, unrestrained oligarchy, and blessedly low taxes. They see America's leader, even if viewed as an "asshole," as powerful and selfishly caring only about his own people.

Meanwhile, Europe remains "old Europe" — a balkanized world where one can be arrested for a Facebook post labeled as hate speech, and with no strong leaders. The overwhelming sense is one of collective shame in being so weak and having so little to say about anything on the global stage.

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Easy Sunday: Gasoline prices in a world of hurt

Think it would be great to get away from it all?

Do you think a cruise vacation to South America would take you far enough away to avoid hearing complaints about Donald Trump?

Nope.

Jennifer Angelo and husband Jack Mullen got an earful about gasoline prices when they were in Chile earlier this month. Their guide said Trump threatens his livelihood. The guide considers Trump "crazy."

Angelo is a retired federal attorney. She and Jack live in Washington, D.C.

Jennifer Angelo with Chilean guide

Guest Post by Jennifer Angelo

Peter titled a recent blog "Americans Don't Want $5 gasoline." On our recent trip to South America, we got a first-hand account of how much Chileans don't want $6.50 gasoline, but that's what they're paying, thanks to Donald Trump's Iranian adventure.

In late March, we hired a guide, Chris, to take us the 75 miles from Santiago to Valparaiso, where we embarked on an expedition cruise. Along the way, Chris told us about Chile's fruit, vegetables, wine and copper exports, along with the sights of Santiago and Valparaiso (including a tour of poet Pablo Neruda's hillside home). But what has stuck with me is his eye-opening perspective on the economic upheaval United States policy is having in his country. As an independent contractor who drives tourists for a living, his income depends on how many tourists need his services and how much it costs to provide them. I can best describe him as distraught as he talked about how Trump's war was upending the lives of ordinary Chileans. Chile imports almost all its oil and the price spikes from the Iran conflict were immediate and steep. While most Americans are paying between $4 and $5 per gallon, the price in Chile is about $6.50, a more than 30% increase, and diesel prices are up 60%.

Chilean TV; Prices in liters.

 

The effects of these increases were already apparent in food costs because the cost to transport it has spiked. Costs of mining and exporting copper, Chile's major export, are up. Taxi drivers, commuters and people like Chris, who already had little to fall back on, are feeling the pain. We were with Chris on March 28, and he told us in a panicked voice that if the war wasn't over within a week, it was going to be disastrous for him.

Chris was no lefty. He leans right politically, and he called Gabriel Boric, the last president of Chile, "the little boy" (Boric was 35 at the start of his term in 2022). Boric rose to prominence as a student government leader, joined forces with other left-wing organizations, and was described as "woke." He had a majority-female cabinet, hiked the minimum wage and imposed a 40 hour work week. Nevertheless, his popularity plummeted because of rising crime and a stagnant economy. Chilean voters replaced Boric last fall with Jose Antonio Kast, who has been described as the most far-right Chilean president since Pinochet. His platform was Trumpian: Deport illegal immigrants, mostly Venezuelan, tackle crime and lower taxes. His inability to deal with the economic shocks caused by Trump has already shown up in plummeting approval ratings. Rather than electing a more moderate government, Chileans seem to punish the party in power by swinging from left to right. Sounds familiar.

Chris wasn't only upset that Trump had threatened his livelihood. He despises him. He considers him "crazy," and wonders how we can rein him in. I couldn't give him much encouragement and, not for the first time, wished we had the parliamentary option of a "no confidence" vote. I told him we would have elections in the fall. That's a long way off and who knows how much a Democratic Congress can stop the Trump train when there are no guardrails left and Trump appears erratic and demented. I can only imagine how the majority-Catholic countries of South America feel about Trump's feud with the Pope.

All of this got me thinking about our USA-centric view of Trump's policies. Until I hopped into Chris's van, I hadn't given much thought to how Trump was upending the lives of Chileans. I searched for articles on Chile in The New York Times, and there were a few about the right- wing political shift there and elsewhere in South America. On Apple News, Bloomberg and Reuters mostly covered President Kast's tax cut plan. Only the French newspaper Le Monde had any in-depth coverage on Chile, and even that was mostly political.

In my mind I multiplied Chile's economic pain by the number of countries that are watching helplessly as Trump - the man with no clear plan, no empathy, little knowledge of history and an impulsive and narcissistic personality - wreaks havoc on the planet. When Trump says America First, he means America only. If he's willing to bust Americans' budgets with his reckless policies, he cares even less about the people of Chile. Not his problem.

 

Note: Coming up, a different perspective. Another friend, this one travelling in Western Europe, says that Europeans are accustomed to the occasional bad leader.  Be patient, not surprised. This too will pass.

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Oregon Senate District 3: Candidate Jim Crary responds

Jim Crary says he's trying to win.

Crary is a candidate for senate in Oregon's Senate District 3. He is one of five Democrats in the race.

He says I got it wrong.

Crary, on his forest property on Highway 66

A Democrat has an excellent chance of winning in this district. The party has a registration edge: Democrats: 31,748. Republicans 25,188. Non-affiliated: 36,708. And this should be a good year for Democrats nationwide. Trump is a drag on Republicans and a turnout-motivator for Democrats. 

I wrote on Thursday that Jim Crary's campaign listed only two contributors after a month of active campaigning. I thought I was being generous to Crary by not presuming his campaign was floundering. I wrote that his campaign probably had another purpose: It is a platform to pitch his idea of higher alcohol taxes. I watched Andrew Yang in 2020 use the platform of running for president to introduce the idea of a universal basic income. The third-party candidacy of Robert Kennedy, Jr. gave him attention that led to his being put in Trump's Cabinet. A candidacy is a proven device for getting attention.

Crary's campaign introduced the alcohol tax idea to me, and having heard him make his case, I decided it makes sense.  Alcohol causes social problems that cost taxpayers. Alcohol should pay its own way. As I saw it, Crary's plan worked.

Crary wrote me to say I misunderstand him. He said his campaign is for real and his lack of contributors is a feature, not a bug. His campaign website is: https://www.craryfororegonsenate.org

Comment from Jim Crary

Your statement about my campaign contains several inaccuracies that I’d like to correct.

First, my campaign is not narrowly focused; rather, it is focused on solving two of the biggest challenges facing Oregonians: affordability and infrastructure. My proposal for funding my solutions to those challenges is straightforward: update Oregon’s beer and wine taxes (currently the lowest in the nation and unchanged for over 40 years) and use the resulting new revenue to fund $125 million in income tax relief for lower-income, working Oregonians and $100 million dedicated solely to repairing and maintaining our roads and bridges. Today, Oregon’s tax on a 12-oz beer is less than a cent (.79¢), and on a 5-oz glass of wine just 2.6¢. Updating those rates to 25¢ per drink would generate $306 million annually, in new revenue. So, the affordability and infrastructure funding would not require cutting any existing services or programs. It would also only move Oregon to the middle of the pack nationally on beer and wine tax rates.

Second, your inference that I am not making a serious effort to win is simply not correct. Offering specific, fully funded solutions rather than broad platitudes and slogans is definitely not the norm but I am doing that because I respect voters enough to be clear about what I will do and how I will pay for it.

Third, my campaign is intentionally built around direct voter engagement. Unlike most candidates who ask only for votes and donations, on my website, as you well know, I actively invite and answer voter questions publicly. That approach carries political risk as clear, direct answers won’t please everyone, but I believe voters deserve transparency and the opportunity to compare candidates based on substance.

As for campaign contributions, I have been very fortunate to have friends who agree with my positions and are willing to support me. They are not special interests seeking favors but truly altruistic friends.

I am running for State Senate for the same reason I’ve stepped forward before, because I believe public service is about solving problems, not building a career. Like Cincinnatus, I believe in doing the job and then returning to private life.

If you (or others) have questions, please call/text me at 541-531-2912; I would welcome the conversation.

Best regards,
Jim Crary

He later specifically addressed my question of why there wasn't evidence of typical campaign fundraising. He wrote:

Answer: That’s a fair question, but it reflects a difference in strategy—not a lack of seriousness. In addition to my own contributions, I’ve received support from five donors, which has allowed me to spend less time dialing for dollars and more time earning voter trust. 

 

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Oregon Senate District 3: A candidate responds

Five Democratic candidates.

Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba was the only candidate I did not know. 

He isn't new to Southern Oregon. He is new to the local political scene. 

From his campaign website

I invited the five Senate District Three candidates I profiled on Thursday to respond to that description of their campaign finances. Ruvalcaba's wrote the letter below.

Ruvalcaba wants us to know who he is. His website begins the same way, with a description of his immigrant roots, his education, and the hustle it took to get his doctorate in nursing practice. His ambition, brains, and credentialing are exceptional, but he doesn't emphasize exceptionalism. He emphasizes that he sees the problems of the country from lived experience as someone authentically from and in the world of working Americans struggling to get by. 

His website shows he has positions on issues that one expects from liberal Democrats: universal healthcare, access to reproductive and gender-affirming care, more money for K-12 education and higher education, "immigration justice" by blocking ICE enforcement within hospitals, a general goal of protecting forests and farmland, opposition to the sale of public lands, and support for unions. They are policy goals I see in the websites of the four other Democratic candidates.

Democratic voters face a choice among five personalities and biographies. It is like a high school student body election, only instead of choosing between the jock and the extravert honor student, all the candidates are extravert honor students. How to choose?

From his campaign website

Ruvalcaba puts immigration front and center. Ruvalcaba was born in the U.S. to a Spanish-speaking family. It will test the proposition: Is our current discord over immigration really about illegitimate immigration, or is this really about something darker, a tribal ethnocentric discomfort with diverse people living among us? Ruvalcaba is a strong case for the value immigration brings Americans, a hugely productive citizen. He is an appealing candidate: a nurse and nurse educator, young, idealistic, dedicated to helping others. He is a fresh political face of a new generation at a moment when voters are witnessing profound cronyism associated with the GOP brand. He comes with a severe disadvantage in name familiarity and established network of supporters compared to this primary opponents and Republican opponent, Brad Hicks, if Ruvalcaba wins the primary. Hicks is the long-serving CEO of a strongly Republican-coded Chamber of Commerce and its tight network of establishment politics, political donations, and business deals with government entities.

But every strength embeds a weakness. Hicks is burdened by the aura of cronyism at a time when Trump has put cronyism on unapologetic display. The energy that fueled the populist right during Trump's early "drain the swamp" days still exists. Local voters chose almost two-to-one to cut county commissioner salaries in half, notwithstanding a giant campaign to maintain the status quo. Ruvalcaba could be the fresh face candidate, the new broom that sweeps clean the no-longer-trusted establishment. 

Ruvalcaba has work to do. Currently his campaign financing does not say "local man makes good, very good." It says "upstate nurses lobby has a candidate." Voters will not want to pick between a Chamber swamp and a nurses lobby swamp coming out of the Democratic caucus swamp. Ruvalcaba needs to develop broad, deep local connections that make his campaign match his roots and the brand he is trying to establish. He can grow his local network, but I suspect that this takes more time than he has in this election cycle. 

I could be wrong. Possibly this is his year. We will see.

Letter from Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba

Dear Peter,

Thank you for the introduction. As you noted, I have been busy making calls and growing my base of grassroots support.

In conversations with voters over the past few weeks, it is clear that Democrats are looking for bold, fresh leadership. Leaders who are responsive, grounded in community, and accountable to working people. Many voters are frustrated with a political system that feels distant and disconnected from the realities they face every day. Many younger voters and voters from diverse communities feel disengaged because they do not see themselves represented in leadership. Many people who I have spoken with do not see themselves reflected in decision making spaces.

As the son of immigrants, born and raised in Medford, I put myself through SOU and completed both of my graduate nurse practitioner programs, and I proudly call Southern Oregon home. My path has been shaped by working class values and a strong sense of responsibility to the community that raised me and that I continue to serve.

Like many people in our district, I live with the financial pressures of a tight household budget with little room for savings, if any at all. These realities are not abstract to me. They are shared by the families I talk with every day on the campaign trail.

In my work as a registered nurse and nurse practitioner, I have seen firsthand how our broken health care system affects people directly. Patients delay care because they cannot afford it. Conditions worsen because preventive care is out of reach. People end up in costly hospital visits that could have been avoided with earlier access and support. These are not isolated cases. They reflect a system where access and affordability are out of reach for too many.

In my work in higher education, I have also seen students stretched to their limits, working full time jobs while trying to complete their education. Many are doing everything right and still facing rising costs and limited opportunity. Education, which should be a pathway to stability and mobility, is becoming increasingly difficult to access.

This is exactly the perspective we need more of in Salem. Working people who lead by listening and who govern with lived experience at the center.

In addition to endorsements from multiple Democratic state legislators who champion health care and labor, I am honored to have also earned the endorsement of Nurses and Friends for Single Payer, reflecting my commitment to advancing equitable, accessible, and affordable health care.

I am excited to continue listening to voters in SD3 and to connect with even more Southern Oregonians in this campaign.

Further information regarding my campaign can be found on my website. https://www.cristianforsd3.com/

Sincerely,

Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba, DNP, APRN, FNP-C, CPNP-PC, CNE
Doctor of Nursing Practice
Advanced Practice Registered Nurse
Family Nurse Practitioner - Certified
Certified Pediatric Nurse Practitioner – Primary Care
Certified Nurse Educator

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Democratic Candidates in Senate District 3

Oregon Senate District 3

Five Democratic candidates

A snapshot of where they get their campaign money

Democrat: 31,748. Republican 25,188. Non-affiliated: 36,708

There aren't any polls. How do you know who is ahead? You don't. 

But you can look for bits of evidence to see who has an active campaign and who is successful in lining up support. Presumably a campaign that gets endorsement and financial help correlates with eventual votes. Campaign contributions are an objective measure within a sea of guesswork. Money and endorsements are useful information for voters. Maybe those nodes of support align with a voter's own interests.

My information comes from the Oregon Secretary of State Orestar system as of April 15.  Orestar.

Krause

Denise Krause has raised the most money, with just over $40,000 reported. She has about 75 different entries, many of which are the bundles of contributions of $100 or less. She told me she had 207 different contributors. Krause was the chief organizer of the campaign to update the Jackson County Home Rule Charter with an effort to make commissioners nonpartisan, increase their number from three to five, and to force a reduction of their salaries, now over $150,000/year. It was, from my observation, the best grass roots campaign in the 45 years I have been observing local campaigns. She built a network. So it is no surprise to me that she raised money in a grassroots manner, with a large group of contributions from people whose names I recognize from involvement in that campaign and her two previous campaigns for county commissioner. Former county commissioner David Gilmour donated $750. She lists endorsements from the the SEIU, a public employee union; Nurses & Frieds for Single Payer; a Teamsters, Ironworkers, and Carpenters union; and from a Pro-Animal Oregon, an animal protection organization.

Stine

Kevin Stine has been a Medford city council member for over 11 years. His support appears to me to cluster around people who have seen him over the years and respected his council service. He is a teacher, a Navy veteran from tours as a submariner, and a runner. He is 40 now and has developed a network of people who have seen his civic engagement. He was one of the leaders in rounding up community support for the Rogue X project. He has run for other offices, including challenging U.S. Senator Ron Wyden six years ago and Stine got over 75,000 votes statewide. The Medford city council is an nonpartisan office, but Stine is acknowledged to be a Democrat with ambition for higher office, which gets him support from Democrats interested in the next generation of candidates. It also gets him consistent opposition from the local Republican establishment that wants to nip his ambitions in the bud. Former Medford mayor Al Densmore, who has a reputation for nonpartisan centrism, contributed $1,000. In the photo above, taken this week, Stine was in his role announcing that the Medford Urban Renewal granted $1.5 million to the Children's Museum. Stine has never been a prodigious fundraiser in prior campaigns; he has 26 entries and has raised about $7,000.

Moro

Tonia Moro entered the race just before filing deadline, right after the incumbent, Democrat Jeff Golden, withdrew. She is an attorney and has represented environmental causes. She was a candidate for this office in a special election to fill the vacancy after the death of Senator Alan Bates. She lost in a close race to Republican Alan DeBoer, the former mayor of Ashland. The most prominent of her contributions is a $5,000 one from Golden's campaign. She has 34 entries and has $14,000 in contributions showing on Orestar's records. She presents herself as a "champion" on the environment, which Jeff Golden told me was a factor in his endorsement. I wrote yesterday that Democrats may win primary election support -- Democrats who vote in primary elections prioritize the climate issue -- but lose in general elections by making a villain out of companies that produce the gasoline that voters need to buy. The photo above is from Moro's webpage. (She may not read this blog, or if she does, doesn't agree with yesterday's post where I warn that the voters that Democrats need to win elections are people who dislike $5 gasoline and $6 diesel. They want abundant, affordable energy. I am already getting pushback from Democrats who say I am wrong. That's OK. I don't expect everyone to agree with everything I write.) Her webpage lists endorsements from the Oregon League of Conservation Voters, Nurses & Friends for Single Payer, the Sierra Club, the Communications Workers of America, and a Jane Fonda PAC.

Mendoza-Ruvalcaba

Cristian Mendoza-Ruvalcaba is a highly credentialed nurse practitioner and educator. His donations reveal his substantial connection to the nursing profession and lobby. He received a $10,000 contribution and endorsement from the Oregon Nurses Association. He also received contributions from the campaigns of incumbent Democratic State Representatives Travis Nelson and Rob Nosse, and State Senator Winsvey Campos, all of whom work in health care. Yola's Bakery on South Central Avenue in Medford made a $2,000 contribution, but other than that I don't yet see evidence of substantial local grassroots financial support, but this may be coming. He is a new face in local politics and he is actively making fundraising calls to introduce himself. I see 36 total entries in his contribution list and a total raised of about $23,000, which includes that $10,000 from the nurses association.

Crary

Jim Crary is an experienced campaigner, having run for Congress in past years -- yet another Democrat who confronted the almost two-to-one Republican margin in our congressional district. This campaign has an interesting but limited focus, an idea that Oregon needs to increase our current taxes on alcohol -- the lowest in the nation -- and use that revenue to fund government services, especially including those associated with alcohol problems. Crary's contributions are very limited, coming from only two people. He has raised $15,600, and $15,000 of it comes from one person, a neighbor who lives up the same rural highway, Oregon Route 66, that Crary lives on. I make an inference about Crary's campaign: Crary is more interested in having a forum for advocating a message than he is about making a serious effort to gain grassroots support that results in winning the election.

Disclosure:  When Jeff Golden was seeking re-election, he requested a campaign contribution from me. I donated $2,000. I generally agree with Jeff, although he is probably more reliably liberal-progressive-environmental doctrinaire than I am. Local readers will understand if I say that he is more "Ashland Democrat;" I am more "Medford Democrat." He was a college classmate. I have been donating money to Jeff for political and public TV and public radio causes for 40 years. When Jeff withdrew from the race, he asked if I wanted my contribution returned. I said he should keep it and use it as he thought best. Perhaps my $2,000 was packaged within the money he gave to Moro. That is OK, although Moro would not have been my first choice of candidate.

I have been watching Kevin Stine's campaigns for 12 years. I thought it was unfair for the local Chamber of Commerce Republicans to try keep Kevin off the nonpartisan Medford city council just because he was a Democrat, so I have been a consistent donor to Kevin's campaigns for a decade. I gave Kevin $2,000 last month. 

Denise Krause does what skilled grassroots candidates do: She calls people who are aligned with her politically and who have reason to admire her energy and good sense. She solicited a donation. That is what good candidates and effective officeholders do: They reach out and present their cases. I donated $2,000 to her.

What about Cristian Mendoza-Ruvalcaba and Jim Crary? If either of them win the primary, and if they call me and ask, then I will probably contribute to them, too, but I haven't yet.  

Forty-six years ago I was young, poor, and I was trying to fund my campaigns for county commissioner. I thought to myself that what Medford badly needed were some politically reasonable Democratic businessmen-types, practical non-ideological people with a mix of college-town liberal politics but also some capitalist-businessman-rural-farmer instincts. Such a person might have the money to donate to campaigns like mine, and ideally would do so readily.  He would just write the check. Time has passed, and my situation changed. Now I try to be that person I sorely needed back in 1980.

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Americans don't want $5 gasoline.

The U.S. has a glass jaw.

Voters are impatient and unhappy with the price of gasoline.

Trump wants out of Iran. He wants to declare victory now.

Trump to Fox's Maria Bartiromo:

"I think its close to over. I view it as very close to over."

Democrats are giddy with the prospect that the Trump era is ending. Democrats are counting the blue-wave midterm election chickens before they hatch, but it is too much fun to resist. 

The war with Iran is unpopular, and Trump knows it. He is on deadline. He needs us to be out of Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz open and oil shipping back to pre-war status, and gasoline prices back to where they were two months ago -- $3 and $3.50 in most of the country.

A Republican senator has taken on a hard task, telling Americans to be happy with higher prices, that it is worth it.

Trump takes a smarter approach, telling voters it will be over soon.

Iran can take a punch and keep hitting. What is left of Iran’s government took the world’s economy hostage. They shut down the Strait of Hormuz, letting only their friends pass through and demanded a toll.

Trump is forced to play bad cards. Trump could not open the Hormuz toll road, so he needed to close it completely, making worse the oil disruption. Petroleum is a notoriously inelastic commodity. Prices must move up a lot to suppress demand enough to bring it back in balance with supply.

High oil prices mean high prices at the pump. Pew Research Center polling showed that gasoline prices were more important to Americans than the prospect of sending ground troops to Iran or the prospect of large numbers of American casualties. That is the American glass jaw.

Trump understands his political peril. Whatever incomplete shambles he leaves in Iran will not stop him from claiming the war is over and was a HUGE success. But that is possible only if gasoline and diesel prices are down. Trump has six months to abandon Iran and let Iran have the strait, so long as shipping is restored. Israel cares about the Iran project. Trump doesn’t.

The real question is whether Democrats will understand their peril. Democrats prioritize climate as an issue. Democrats consider abundant oil at low cost to be a problem. Democrats are conflicted. They understand that talk of “affordability” is good politics, and that gasoline prices at the retail pump should be low. But Democratic messaging is that petroleum is drilled, fracked, pumped, and transported in ways that they oppose. The companies that do that work are scorned. “Divest from oil companies” and “Windfall taxes on oil companies “ are applause lines at Democratic events. Somehow, the oil companies that supply filling stations with an essential product are very bad, but the consumers who buy that product and who want it available and cheap are good. Yes, Democrats are conflicted.

U.S. Senator Sen. Ruben Gallego (D- AZ), who is sometimes named as a potential Democratic nominee for president since he is popular, not too old, and was elected in a swing state, described the conundrum for Democrats who talk about climate instead of energy abundance. He said that working men, the voters Democrats need to win back, want to be able to drive a “big ass truck.” The blue state Democratic climate message -- ban drilling, ban pipelines, ban fracking, divest from oil companies -- what Democrats say to win a primary election, is what will allow Trump regain support. Democratic primary-voting activists are out of touch with voters they want back. No more blue wave without those voters.

By November, Trump can be the cheap-gasoline candidate again if he manages to get himself out of Iran and the strait reopened. GOP ads will be showing images of gasoline station prices again.

What can Democrats do? Must they cave on the climate issue? Can Democrats convince Americans that reduced petroleum production and refinement is a worthwhile cost to pay to protect the climate?

No they cannot and neither can that Republican senator. Americans want what they can afford. Americans are who we are. Less is not more. More is more. It is an aspirational message and Democrats should not be afraid of it.

Democrats need to make a choice. The U.S. is in a two-decade period of rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewables. It is happening because of price, not moral suasion. Technology is the Democrats’ friend. Renewable wind and solar are cheaper than fossil fuels, especially if Democrats will allow them to be sited. Natural gas -- a compromise fuel -- is far cheaper and cleaner than coal. A Democrat can make a virtue of the transition underway and lean into it. Praise it. If Democrats try to make a virtue of “less” they elect Trump and people like him.

Americans want cheap abundant energy. The Democratic challenge is to give it to them.

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog by email go to Https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.]