"Peter, in my opinion, [Trump] has done democracy a great service by truly stress-testing the separation of powers."
Comment to the blog yesterday
First, the good news:
The United States will probably get through this constitutional crisis with our democracy intact. Donald Trump turns 80 in June. He is vigorous but unwell. Humans are mortal. Napoleon had to be defeated by armies and navies. Nature will take its course with Trump.
As the comment observed, our democracy faces a stress test, and it is failing. The constitutional system does not work on its own to limit the ability of a charismatic president to ignore the checks and balances that create consensus reflecting the true will of the people.
The Supreme Court ruled that the president is immune from the legal system. That supposed check is gone. Congress is supposedly the second check, but a popular president can intimidate Congress into giving up its power.
Yesterday I posted that the only real power of Congress was the power to impeach and convict. Impeachment by the House is a toothless tool, a political gesture. A president who is impeached but not convicted is stronger for having survived. Today a Republican president needs only 34 votes by U.S. senators to survive impeachment. A president needs support of a majority of the Republican primary voters in 17 of the reddest states in the union -- an easy accomplishment. The stress test is underway now. Thomas Massie, a congressman from Kentucky, lost his primary. Senator John Cornyn lost his primary election to a Trump-backed challenger in Texas yesterday. Senator Bill Cassidy lost his primary to a Trump-backed challenge in Louisiana. Senator Thom Tillis in North Carolina chose not to run for re-election knowing he would lose his primary election.
The Madisonian premise is that ambition will counter ambition. Alas, no. Political ambition in the era of a charismatic factional leader requires acquiescence to him, not checking him. MAGA-oriented Trump voters are a minority of a minority, but they are the majority where it matters, in the GOP primary.
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| Trump is very popular in these states: Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Utah, Kansas, Montana, and Nebraska. That is 17 states and each state has two senators, a total of 34. Trump could, indeed, shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and not lose any votes, or at least not an impeachment vote. A Democrat has his own backstop against conviction. Bill Clinton survived an impeachment vote with 55 votes acquitting him on perjury and 50 votes acquitting him on obstruction of justice -- far short of the two thirds necessary to convict. If Trump were turning 60 rather than turning 80, I would expect him to suspend the 2026 midterm elections, claiming foreign subversion of the election or "national emergency," or achieve the same end by stopping the vote count in key Democratic counties (Fulton in Georgia, Wayne in Michigan, Philadelphia County in Pennsylvania, Cook in Illinois) and disallow certification of votes from those areas. The result would be GOP majorities in both the House and Senate. He might still do that. I could imagine him demanding to stay in office until the emergency was over -- as long as he wishes -- for the "good of the country." He would suspend the Constitution's two-term limit and rule as a "temporary" commander in chief. A minority of voters would approve, and it is a minority that would keep Trump in office. National emergencies are how democracies turn into strong-man dictatorships. But I suspect Trump is too old to pull this off. People see his end, and in this case the ambition of people who see light at the end of the tunnel will keep President Trump from claiming to be a permanent leader. There is no natural successor. Donald Trump, Jr., appears to be a cocaine user more interested in money and women than power. The U.S. dodged a bullet. We need a Constitutional convention once Trump is gone so we can rethink what isn't working. Perhaps we need a parliamentary form of government with a leader chosen, as was originally planned by the founders, by representatives, not electors who serve as a weighted counting-mechanism for a popular vote. As the founders realized, the public is the repository of power, but it cannot be trusted with it. A republican form of government is safer, with knowledgeable leaders chosen by the people. In a parliamentary system the government is run by a coalition, not a charismatic leader. In a parliamentary system a leader can be deposed by a vote of no-confidence. Such a threat is a better check on power than is an impeachment vote. In a presidential system, we empower a dictator if he chooses to be one. And Trump does. [Note: To get daily delivery of this blog by email go to Https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.] |
15 comments:
Stop giving so much power to low population states. California =to Nebraska? Supreme Court needs to be reformed with ethics laws. President needs to have less power not more. Maybe more states rights so at least blue states can have sane policies, maybe even universal healthcare. Let’s be more like Britain and Canada because letting the south dictate how the country is governed sure isn’t working.
"We need a Constitutional convention, resulting perhaps in a parliamentary form of government..."***
***[unless of course Democrats regain one or both houses of Congress in the fall, and the presidency in '28]
No. A Democratic chamber does not fix the problem, especially if it is just the House. Trump's power is the "state of emergency " pretext. Democrats cannot go on stricke, so to speak, and shut down the government, not without hurting the "hostages," I e. the people expecting their Social Security checks ad the military and air traffic controllers. Americans want the government to function and they would accept a strong man dictator rather than chaos. Trump will rule without the "meddling" of the House.
Looking at the map, it’s hard to understand what all those people see in Trump. He’s made everything more expensive, reduced the markets for American goods, alienated our allies, sabotaged our democracy, and the list goes on. On the other hand, he’s also put a lot of non-whites in concentration camps and filled the airwaves with bile and bitterness. That must be the basis of his appeal.
What we need is a good Democrat to come out of the woodwork to challenge him. We still have over 2 1/2 years, which is a long time in politics. I have my favorite (Jon Tester D MT), but there are others. This time no more women (ducks). People seem to want a strong man and women aren't there yet. I remember Margaret Thatcher, who was as tough as they come, but we don't have another one of her now. A good Democrat would beat whoever Trumps anoints in the next election. But, is there a good Democrat out there? Please find him. Our nation turns its lonely soul to him.
Alexis de Tocqueville wrote around the time of the American Revolution that for democracy to survive and thrive, there must be morality and justice. I don’t see those conditions in either of the two major political parties at the moment, or for that matter, in our citizenry as a whole.
Gone gone gone... Al Green is gone.... yeah he's gone gone gone... Al Green is gone!!!"
Replaced ....by a Massive margin.... by a fine young man, named Christian.
It is so hilarious how Democrats think they're going to get the Christian vote this year.
I cannot wait for a slew of young "Christian" men to come out and accuse James Talarico of touching them "inappropriately" at summer camp...
....Render unto Caesar.... bitches!
" Rainy day... rain all day ....aint no use in getting uptight ..just let it grooooove its own way.... let it drain your worries away.... lay back and dream on a rainy day"
- Jimi
Fair enough. I just meant to suggest that for many (if not you) from a party not in power,, broader systemic critiques and calls for reform tend to dissipate upon a return to conventional partisan power. Likewise with assessments of the aptitude of the American voter.
But you're talking about demagogue-proofing from here on.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
---Jimi
We need a Constitutional convention once Trump is gone …
Bad idea. Bad idea!
With the country as polarized as it is, you have no idea what you might get out of a constitutional convention. It could eliminate everything liberals like; it could eliminate everything conservatives like. There is no telling what it could do.
Be careful what you wish for…
It is easier to understand when you notice the contempt projected towards the unenlightened inhabitants of “flyover country“ for decades by our liberal cultural elites.
The troglodytes who prefer NASCAR to the symphony eventually noticed that contempt, and are now returning it in full measure.
Maybe you’re projecting. Conservative elites have made life far more difficult for those “flyover troglodytes” than liberals ever have. Promising to lower prices on day one and then hitting them with tariffs and war is about as contemptuous as you can get. We’ll see if Trump’s Independence Day White House cage fight can distract them from the price of gas and Epstein, Epstein, Epstein.
Nice one Mike. Excellent comeback. It's powerful because it's true.
Unfortunately, Love of ones neighbor has been strangled by political lust for absolute power and to force one's neighbor to "Submit" into absolute Serfdom. Neighborliness has been stricken by animosity and paranoia over what one's neighbor believes in. Demands to Conform or die have never been more prevalent. All factions are guilty and damned.
"To every season, turn turn turn... There is a time for Peace... and a time for War..." ...guess what time it is?
"...and it appears to be a long time, such a long long long long time... before the dawn..."
"Praise the Lord, ...and pass the ammunition"
There are Christians out there that want the Bible to be our Constitution. I can't think of a worse idea.
Your only explanation for how Trump voters keep voting for him seems to be that they are morons. Those morons won the presidency in 2024. If they’re morons and they beat your side, what does that make you?
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