Do endorsements help?

Which is better?

Tonia Moro, with a endorsement by Jeff Golden, our current state senator, or 

Kevin Stine, with an endorsement by three former Medford mayors, Lindsay Berryman, Al Densmore, and Gary Wheeler, or

Denise Krause, with endorsements by a variety of unions and membership organizations, or

Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba, with endorsements by the Oregon Nurses Association and several school board members, or

Jim Crary, who said "I didn't seek endorsements because I think my message is more important than endorsements."

Southern Oregon readers who are plugged into local media know that Jeff Golden's endorsement of Tonia Moro is front and center in her campaign.

It may well be dispositive. People in Senate District 3 have twice elected Golden to the state Senate. He was a familiar voice on Jefferson Public Radio's morning news and opinion talk show. He is known to be liberal, an environmentalist, and someone now publicly describing his frustration with Oregon's Governor Tina Kotek. She and Democratic leaders have been trying to soften Oregon's reputation for being anti-business with some policy moderations, particularly as regards accommodating high-tech facilities in the "Silicon Forest" area west of Portland. Golden voiced his unhappiness with Kotek's changes.  He endorsed Moro alluding to that policy shift, saying that "some of the trajectories of Salem policy are headed in really troublesome directions."

Is Golden's endorsement of Moro a more valuable endorsement than three former Medford mayors' endorsement of Kevin Stine?

Maybe, maybe not. Three is better than one, but Golden is in political traffic now, while these mayors are from the past. Golden's vibe is liberal policy. The mayors' vibe is nonpartisan good government. Stine's service on the Medford City Council for 11-plus years, along with his Navy service and his participation in veterans events including formal flag presentations, are consistent with Stine's good-citizen image. Stine has a strong Medford vibe, as contrasted with the strong Ashland vibe from Golden and Moro. Golden would probably disagree, but it is not clear to me that Stine has significantly different policy positions than Moro or that he would be any less a policy advocate than Moro, but they do communicate different cultural signals. 

Moro has more money than Stine, so she is getting her endorsement ads out there more than is Stine. That may be the difference.

Denise Krause is from Ashland. She could easily have lined up endorsements from prominent individuals since she is a well-practiced grass-roots organizer, but she chose to show endorsements from membership organizations, not individuals. Those suggest her policy interests and areas of support.

Large public employee union

She also listed Ironworkers Union #29, the North Coast States Carpenters Union, the Teamsters Joint Council #37, Pro-Animal Oregon, an animal rights group, and Nurses and Friends for Single Payer, a healthcare advocacy group. Her support from unions is probably helpful in a Democratic primary. Krause's support from blue-collar building trades unions projects broader appeal than the climate-conservation message we get from Moro. College-town Democrats have lost ground with blue-collar America, so this is a good sign for Krause -- or maybe not. Democrats who vote in mid-year primaries may be the ones in the liberal-all-the-way environmentalist-Jeff Golden-public radio segment of the Democratic base. Moro is probably picking up support there.

Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba lists the Oregon Nurses Association, his primary patron, as an endorser. He also lists three members of the Medford School Board, an Ashland School Board member, and four out-of-area state legislators, plus other local citizens. He is endorsed by the Southern Oregon PAC of the Oregon Education Association and by the LGBTQ Victory Fund. The teachers PAC is a big one. There are lots of teachers and they are in the habit of voting. Ruvalcaba is signaling something by having gotten and then displaying the LGBTQ endorsement. He got that endorsement; the others did not.

Jim Crary is simple: no endorsements.

I know Jeff Golden well enough both to respect him personally and to figure that he wants a successor who will continue his efforts to slow Governor Kotek's progress in moderating state policy. I suspect he sees it as "backtracking" or giving ground on progress. Two years ago Golden considered running for the state treasurer position, and in his conversations with me while  soliciting a contribution he told me his platform would include Oregon divesting of oil stocks. He said he wanted the treasurer's job to have a distinct environmental agenda. Unlike Jeff, I am OK with Kotek is moderating somewhat if it leads to stronger economic growth. It might put her in better sync with Oregon voters, which I consider necessary and good. And I don't vilify energy companies. I have a car and a truck that use gasoline. I consider it hypocritical to drive a car, but condemn the people who sell me its fuel. I don't think it is immoral to own oil stocks. I own some. They are a good inflation hedge, and those companies manufacture and sell a product that will be essential for several more decades. Let's not kid ourselves about that.

I will happily admit that Jeff is a "better environmentalist" than I am. Probably Moro is, as well. 

For many Democrats, it is a positive that Jeff identified the candidate he considers the environmental champion. For me it is a small net negative; environmentalists are too often at odds with the interests of working people who want jobs and affordable housing. Some environmental positions are luxury positions of the well to do. I have some empathy for people who are trying to get by. If Democrats keep losing those voters we will be stuck with Trump and people like him forever.

I like all the candidates in the race, and will surely vote for the winner in November, but voting is choosing. I went back and forth between Denise Krause and Kevin Stine. I am sure all five candidates are more liberal than I am and all will pretty much follow standard Democratic orthodoxy. I am trying to nudge Democrats back toward centrist positions. I spent too much time doing business and farming to be as impractical as I think Democrats sometimes are. 

I voted for Kevin Stine. He is sort of a Boy Scout and good-government patriotic guy, a bit less a partisan warrior, maybe, but I am OK with that. Yes, he has political ambitions. I like ambitious young people, and want more of them in public office.

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