I had written that the U.S. had a glass jaw. The American public would not tolerate taking a punch, not at the gas pumps.
It is true, but it isn't the point.
The point is that our trillion-dollar military is not accomplishing our strategic goal. It accomplished Iran's.
We are a paper tiger, and the world sees it now.
Trump entered the war thinking it would be another Venezuela, an easy win, a good distraction from Epstein, Epstein, Epstein, and it would shore up relations with Israel and Israel-hawks within the U.S. He named the war "Epic Fury." Mr. Tough Guy. Overwhelming military force would make Iran a whipped and obedient dog.
Instead, we learned that we can win battles but lose the war. We have weapons of mass destruction, but Iran has the will and the geography.
Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz was open. It belonged to the world. Today, ships pass only if Iran allows. Insurers realize the U.S. Navy and Air Force cannot protect shipping.
Before the war Iranian oil exports operated under an extensive sanctions regime. Today, those sanctions are unenforceable. Nations make side deals with Iran.
Before the war West Texas and Brent crude was priced about $70/ barrel. Now oil markets are driven by scarcity and war news, with a price bouncing around $100/barrel. It results in unpopular price-hikes for American consumers and windfalls for Iran and Russia.
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| U.S. bases |
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| European satellite view of damage |
Before the war the U.S. gave security to Gulf oil kingdoms while they provided oil to the world, reliably and at a stable cost, priced in U.S. dollars. They allowed the U.S. to place forward bases on their land. The war destroyed that arrangement. Not only can we not defend their oil infrastructure, we cannot defend our own bases.
Before the war, going back to when Trump took office in 2017, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was in place. It allowed inspections of Iran's nuclear program. Trump voided the deal, so Iran restarted its nuclear buildup. Bombing last year supposedly obliterated it. Epic Fury supposedly obliterated it a second time. Now Trump is scrambling to negotiate a new nuclear agreement to give him an excuse to abandon the war and declare a tremendous success, only this time from a weaker position than Obama's. The clock is ticking on Trump. Fuel prices are high in the U.S., poll numbers are dropping, foreign countries are rationing gasoline, the world may fall into recession, and it is Trump's doing. Trump, not Iran, is under the gun.
Before the war the U.S. interest in discouraging nuclear proliferation was addressed by the presumption that the U.S. military could protect countries against invasion by neighbors. That implied guarantee is gone. Every country learned the bitter truth that the only real protection against invasion is to build or buy nuclear weapons that can be delivered by missile or shipping container. The world is more dangerous.
Before the war Iran was led by its aging clerical establishment scrambling to maintain order. We killed them. They are replaced by younger, hardline nationalists. We got regime change, but in the wrong direction.
Before the war the U.S. arsenal of weapons looked untouchable. Such aircraft carriers! Such stealth bombers! Such firepower! The war revealed that we provisioned for 20th-century wars. We use 10-million-dollar missiles to shoot down 50-thousand-dollar drones. Swarms of drones or self-piloted small boats can stop shipping where it really matters. Our aircraft carrier is a target.
Before the war, the U.S. still had presumed allies and friends that would stand with us in joint actions in the Middle East. Trump insulted European countries and NATO, placed tariffs on their products, mocked and picked fights with their leaders, and then entered this war without consulting with them. Trump asked them for help in opening up the Strait of Hormuz. No one offered help. The world learned: America is alone.
The 2020 election of Biden let the world conclude that Trump was a hiccup, a one-off aberration. Then Americans re-elected Trump knowing who he was and what he wanted to do. This is for real after all, a new America, weak and unreliable. The world is recalculating everything.
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7 comments:
250 years of increasing prosperity destroyed by Republican stupidity in electing such a man. We deserve all the failures. When your disloyal to your friends don’t expect good things to happen.
This war was doomed from the start because Trump made it clear he wouldn’t be sending in troops, and air power alone doesn’t cut it. Plus, Trump was an idiot to imagine the leaders he’s spent years insulting would suddenly be inspired to come to his aid.
It couldn’t be more obvious that Trump is insane, as are those who still support him.
The world awakens to a shifted balance of power. China is the real beneficiary of Trump’s war on Iran. It’s hard for most U.S. voters to see the world as it is, because few travel; instead, they watch TV, listen to liars, and are convinced America is on top. What will happen when they see and feel the destruction of the dollar as a world currency? What will happen when they realize the U.S. is broke because of Trump’s tax cuts and spending? Will we collapse all at once or slowly sink as a nation among nations?
The clock is also ticking on Iran. Our blockade on their oil exports through the Gulf of Hormuz is causing their economy to crater.
It is way too soon to declare defeat. Men predict, and God laughs…
According to the Pentagon, we’ve already lost $29 billion on this little “excursion,” which is undoubtedly a gross underestimate. Of course, you have to consider all we’ve gained in return: $4.56 per gallon gas and international censure from our ex-allies as well as our adversaries. If Trump winds getting less out of this than Obama had already gotten through diplomacy, it will certainly be a humiliating defeat. But whatever happens, it’s already inherently stupid.
And if the jihadist Islamic death cult running Iran falls, it will all have been worth it.
Yes, but there's no sign of that whatsoever.
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