Election results. Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Too close to call.

In the Oregon Senate District 2 contest to choose the Democratic nominee to replace Jeff Golden, Denise Krause has a 209-vote lead over Tonia Moro.

Krause, from her campaign website

Moro, from her campaign website

Here is the latest updated election tally. Votes are tallied and announced as they are processed.

Results at most recent count

Votes that were counted earlier in the night showed Krause ahead, but by a larger margin. Moro is catching up with her.

Progress report count

The first vote count was announced at 8 p.m. when the polls closed. That tally consisted of votes from early voters. Those earliest voters showed Krause with fewer votes counted but a slightly larger percentage lead. 

First announced result

There is no need to imagine a conspiracy to explain that Moro appears to be catching up. Some people vote early in the two-week balloting period. (I do.) Those ballots had their signatures and bar codes checked as they came in and they were ready to tally and announce. A great many people wait until later in the cycle to vote. They see the two week flurry of advertisements on TV and social media, and direct mail. It does not surprise me that Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba, a little-known political candidate at the beginning of the campaign, but who had a giant media blitz funded by the Oregon Nurses Association, did better with people who voted late in the cycle. The ads persuaded some people. They brought his vote percentage up from 14.9 to 17.7 percent. 

Tonia Moro kept advertising throughout the period -- more than did Krause from my casual observation -- and her percentage of votes increased among people who voted closer to election day, but only slightly. It grew from 33.34 to 34.09 percent.

The real story, for people like me who overthink these things, is that:

-- The electorate that votes early is very close to the electorate of later voters. The pattern is set early.

--  The advertising and effort spent in the last days of the campaign do matter. Kevin Stine, who was well known from his long service on the Medford City Council got early votes, but he did not have money for ads, and he did not do as well among late voters. His percentage dropped from 11.38 to 10.26 percent when the later voters were added into the mix.

  

-- It appears to me that Ruvalcaba's votes from people who saw his ad blitz came from people who, earlier in the cycle might have voted for Krause. Moro's percentage didn't change much as Ruvalcaba's grew, but Krause's dropped.

 

-- In close races, tiny changes matter. I expect Krause or Moro to win or lose by a few votes. Those extra 10 doors knocked on, or that last-minute mailer, something earned a vote that will tip the balance.

I personally prefer Krause to Moro, but based on the pattern of later voters I think it is likely that by the time the final votes are tallied, that Moro will win. Krause partisans should not celebrate early. If Moro wins, I won't cry foul and complain that Krause lost only because a losing candidate, Ruvalcaba, "took" her votes. They weren't Krause's votes; they were the citizen's votes. I don't anchor mentally on Krause being ahead and somehow deserving to win. 

This close election is a bit of practice and preparation for the midterms. Donald Trump complains bitterly about every election he loses, starting with an Iowa caucus vote in 2016 against Ted Cruz, and again in 2020. I fully expect him to claim that some early lead by him or a political ally is the "real" outcome in the 2026 midterms, and that later votes counted for an opponent are fake or illegal. He will try to void those votes and come up with pretexts for it. Don't fall for it. Early leads are not the end result. Don't anchor on early leads. We count all the votes. 

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