Believe nothing.

Fool me once; shame on you. 

Fool me twice; shame on me. 

Try fooling me for seven straight weeks, back to shame on you. I am onto you.

Who is more credible on the question of whether Iran will allow ships to pass the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, or Trump? 

Iran of course. 

Trump just makes things up and changes his story repeatedly. Trump isn't the least bit reliable.

An idea is floating around in the zeitgeist, and it is a symptom of the aura of distrust. The idea is that the shooting at the White House Correspondents Dinner was staged by Trump. So was the Butler, Pennsylvania, shooting. After all, the Butler shooting worked so well politically for Trump that the Hilton Hotel shooting was a useful sequel. 

I do not think that the Butler, Pennsylvania, shooting was a staged event. The test of "Who benefits?" is the wrong one, even if the incident raises suspicion among the conspiracy-minded. The test is whether a secret plan of this kind -- involving shots fired, blood appearing on Trump's cheek, an audience member killed, and the shooter killed at the site -- could all have been choreographed, and then kept secret, all done in real time, all without a dress rehearsal, and there not be evidence of the fraud. I think not. It's impossible, and therefore, no, it was not staged.

But notice my thinking: It isn't that authority figures at the FBI and Secret Service and local law enforcement said that the Butler incident took place as described in official accounts. I presume that they would happily lie to present a dishonest but convenient narrative if they could get away with it. It is just that the event was too complicated to do as a staged assassination. It happened as described, and Trump got lucky.

Tucker Carlson openly doubts whether the Butler event was staged, and he hosts people who "just ask questions."  Marjorie Taylor Greene is suspicious and she, too, is "just asking questions."

Trump has no credibility on any issue with political valence. Trump and his administration happily assert narratives with no relation to the truth, or even the ability to ascertain the truth. Before any investigation was possible Trump and then-Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem asserted that the ICE shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti stopped terrorist attacks. They have not backed off their story. This weekend Trump asserted that Jimmy Kimmel caused the Hilton Hotel attack. (This week's apparent shooter travelled to Washington, D.C., days before the Kimmel show.)  He asserts that ABC must take Kimmel off the air anyway.  Administration officials fall into place. Blame Kimmel. It isn't true, but it is a useful, convenient narrative. 

Conspiracy accusations sow doubt. They de-legitimize. It works politically. Trump asserted that Barack Obama was born in Kenya, not in Hawaii. Republican voters believe it. Trump asserts that he won the 2020 election in a landslide. Republicans believe it, or pretend to. Trump calls Black female politicians "low-IQ" regardless of their education or career successes. It plants a seed. It delegitimize them and gives permission for racists to feel aggrieved.

Trump opponents are doing trolling of their own. Iran has lego-figure propaganda video saying the Hilton Hotel shooting is fake. Social media chatter makes the same claim. This fifteen-second video pops up on TikTok:

Click to go to TikTok

Text:  "Does he really expect us to believe that Charlie Kirk was taken out by some sniper shit, but that every time its him it's some dude vying for the "worst fucking marksman ever" badge, literally the worst shot ever? I don't think so. It was all staged to get his ballroom."

Trump gave wings to the Hilton-shooting-is-fake meme by the way that he and media allies immediately made the shooting an excuse for a new ballroom. 

Left populism fears government and corporate elites. Drug companies are cheating us. Agricultural chemicals are poisoning us. Oil companies are killing the planet. The government is spying on us. Right populism fears the racial, religious, and ethnic other, plus government and corporate elites.

Nearly everybody thinks there is a certain amount of swamp out there.

Trump has a structural disadvantage on the issue of distrust of government. Trump is in power. In a world in which nobody can be trusted, certain facts emerge as set points of reality: Trump is awesomely, stupendously self-serving. Even MAGA Republicans see it. He cannot hide it because it is too big. What with crypto, real estate deals, private business deals with governments, gifts, strategic pardons, and using the power of government to protect himself, his family, and his friends, we see that Trump is neck-deep in the swamp. It is dark and mysterious, and it is worse than you know. It is very dirty.

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