Iran is better off than before.The USA is worse off than before.Trump's political situation deteriorated.
The purported goal of this war was to eliminate Iran's ability to threaten Israel and the world. Trump is under political pressure from Bibi Netanyahu and foreign policy hawks within the U.S. who assert that nothing but the elimination of Iran is sufficient. Iran could not be treated like North Korea, Russia, or China as rivals-with-militaries. Trump's orientation and brand identity is to oppose anything with the stamp of Barack Obama, including his Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Netanyahu's anti-Iran animus fit Trump's needs perfectly. The GOP became the yes-whatever-Israel-wants party. Democrats became the somewhat-Israel party. The battle lines were drawn. Against advice of caution within his administration, Trump followed Israel into this war.
Iran is stronger because of it.
-- Prior to the war, the U.S. had enforceable sanctions on Iran. As a result of the war, we have lifted the sanctions.
-- Prior to the war, Iran sold oil to the world at a price in the $60s per barrel. Now they sell oil at a far higher price -- and so does Russia.
-- Prior to the war, the world consensus position was that Iran must not get nuclear weapons. The ceasefire agreement gives Iran permission to enrich uranium.
-- Prior to the war, the Strait of Hormuz, in both law and practice, was an international waterway. It was uncertain whether Iran could block it. Now Iran has enforceable control of the strait, with the ability to block passage by disfavored countries and to charge a toll to ships that pass. Iran acquired a powerful weapon.
-- Prior to the war, Iran was a very minor power. Now it shows its military is capable of defending Iran's ruling regime and can impose its will on faraway countries by shutting down the world's oil supply.
-- Prior to the war, the U.S. was thought to be able to withstand an enemy's counterpunch. Now it is understood that the U.S. is so fragile that even a 25 percent rise in gasoline prices creates an untenable situation for its leader. America has a glass jaw.
-- Prior to the war, the U.S. was understood to have alliances and support from NATO countries. Now the world understands that the U.S. squandered that support.
-- Prior to the war Trump's led a nearly-unanimous GOP/MAGA coalition. Now Trump is experiencing public opposition from some in that coalitipion. Usually reliable senators like Ron Johnson (R-WI) are speaking out.
-- Prior to the war, the there was a lingering notion in the political zeitgeist that Israel's interests and U.S. interests were parallel. It was voiced aggressively by the GOP. It was done with reservations by President Joe Biden, for which he got a mixture of support and opposition. That notion has deteriorated in both parties. The antisemitic/anti-Israel undercurrent within the GOP is getting traction among mainstream voices.
Pro-Palestinian protesters disrupted and heckled Senator Ron Wyden's (D-OR) town hall in Medford last week. Wyden criticized Netanyahu and assured the audience that he had just introduced legislation that was strongly opposed by AIPAC, the pro-Israel advocacy organization.
-- Prior to the war the United States was strengthening its relationships with Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf oil states, which created a potential basis for a balance-of-power Muslim coalition to contain Iran. The relationship was premised on the U.S.'s ability to provide security to those countries. Now we see that Iran can and will bomb Gulf states' oil infrastructure, residential buildings, tourist hotels, and airlines, and the U.S. cannot protect them. Having a U.S. military base does not mean safety; it means added peril.
Democrats should not presume that Trump's GOP political base understands the war to have been lost. Trump has visuals of explosions, and Fox News is relentless in presenting this as a military success. It is indeed a military success.
But military success is not victory. It may take a while for the country to realize this, but this reality will emerge. In the meantime, this is a political loser for Trump. Americans don't like long, expensive, losing wars.
[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog by email go to Https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.]
27 comments:
A commenter on this site recently posted that the Strait of Hormuz hadn’t been opened because the plan is to first destroy the Iranian military and then reopen the strait. Trump claims the Iranian military has been destroyed, yet they remain in control of the strait. What a shame that the world must pay such a price for the stupidity of the American electorate.
And I find myself agreeing with Tucker Carlson on my tic tox feeds. Once in a while I get a pro Trump feed as a result, but I think I’m teaching it otherwise. We need to stop being a proxy of Israel. I’m not sure they’re any better than Iran and Israel better watch out if someone like me thinks that.
The U.S. gives Israel $billions in military aid every year. In other words, we’re subsidizing the humanitarian crisis they’ve created in Gaza: widespread famine, the collapse of healthcare, critical water shortages, etc. Just to clarify, opposing Israel’s atrocities is not antisemitic, any more than opposing ours is un-Christian.
It is way too soon to declare either victory or defeat. The situation is fluid, chaotic, and developing. It’s an inkblot onto which many people are projecting what they already thought.
Let’s wait and see…
“Pride before the fall” still holds true.
Tucker Carlson is not antisemitic. Tucker doesn't dislike Jewish people. Tucker opposes the Israeli government's actions.
I think I agree with Anonymous here, but I have learned that criticizing Israel is presumed to be equivilent with criticizing Jews as a group, or Judaism. If I say that Netanyahu bullied or manipulated Trump, or flat-out lied to him about a two-state solution, then it is adjacent to suggesting that Jews are treacherous.Or that Netanyahu is. Or that Israeli policy is. Israel is determined to be a Jewish state. Not a multinational state with a majority of Jews. It is hard to criticize Israel without encountering an accusation of antisemitism. Israel squandered its reputation. They wanted to handle the opposition of their neighbors their own way. They thought the whole world was out to get them and then carried out policies which -- surprise! -- turns out to have made this fear a growing reality. Ask someone under age 40 if Israel is a "good guy" country or a bellicose bully.
"Democrats became the somewhat-Israel party".
Does "somewhat" really mean "anti-"? This blog and its comments (including the Substack version) also reflect that, albeit much less virulently than most party politicians. Nor is it really anti-Bibi instead. His Iran policy has overwhelming support among conservative, moderate and even liberal Israelis.
Agreed that military success is far from synonymous with policy success. Let's hope there are voices of influence with an adequate attention span.
To Mr. Sage...If you criticize Trump, does that make you a racist who hates white people? (Of course not). Does it mean that you hate America? (No). It just means that you dislike the actions of a leader, or the US government. You're no different than Tucker Carlson.
It isn’t too soon to note that U.S. taxpayers have already lost over $46 billion, and that doesn’t even take into account the increased price of oil. What we’re likely to get in return looks like it will be far inferior to the nuclear deal that Trump tore up, negotiated by the Obama Administration and other world powers - and that deal didn't even kill a bunch of people.
Israel knows its neighbors better than liberals (who live very safe lives in this country) do. Israel understands that its neighbors like Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are suicidal Islamic death cults who value the destruction of Israel more than they value their own lives.
Israel values its survival more than it values the approval of these liberals, who could probably only understand Israel’s true situation by having their own lives be in that same level of danger.
How is it that the overwhelming majority of UN resolutions have been against the world’s only Jewish state? How is it that a double standard requiring moral perfection is only applied to the world’s only Jewish state? How is it that the world’s only Jewish state faces questions about whether it should be allowed to exist?
Gemini link
I distinguish between a country's government and its population, even in a democracy. But I see lots of commentary by Jewish supporters of Israel that zionism and the tribal longing for a Jewish homeland mean that criticism of Israel is tantamont to criticism of Israel's right to exist and threfore of a central belief of Judiasim. Israel isn't just a government; jit is the voice and survival mechanism of a people and culture and biological tribe. Again, please understand that I am not asserting this; sincere Jewish commenters on this blog and elsewhere say it and scold me for being less than enthusiastic about zionism and a thoroughly Jewish homeland. Israel isn't Switzerland. Jewish text and culture and history insist that their tribe is connected to a place. They cannot just up and move to Utah. A different tribe has historical and practical roots at the same place. Mohammed, as I understand it, rose to heaven on the exact same place, as I understand it, a Jewish King David had a temple, THE central temple, the very most holy place. And, as I understand the rule of covenants and a seperate people, in Israel, as in Puritan Boston, a religious and political polity must be holy and obedient to their understanding of God, otherwise the polity tolerates disobedience. Anyhow, I hear from Israeli and American Jews, and some of them perceive criticism of Israel as criticism of a central belief of Judaism and therefore as criticism of Jewishness and therefore of Jews. It is the transitive property, if I remember my math. But again, understand that I get criticism not for believing in the essential equality of those properties, but for the opposite. I agree less with Tucker and with you, and that is what some of my Jewish critics don't like
If Israel in general and Netanyahu in particular under that Hamas was/is a "suicidal Islamic death cult" then why did they did they fund Hamas for many years, right up until October 7th? It's almost like they wanted to keep the people of Gaza under the control of religious fanatics so as to prevent the Palestinians from being united and actually having a chance at a two-state solution right up until the moment that plan blew up in their faces.
Kind of like how the US trained and armed Al-Qaeda before that came back to bite us in the ass too.
The irony of this whole situation is, as Peter astutely pointed out, that Iran is now in a stronger position as compared to a month ago. One might suspect that leaders like Trump and Netanyahu are total and complete morons who are constantly shooting themselves in the foot, but maybe that's just me.
There’s no question, we have far too many antisemites in the world that object to Israel’s very existence. But that doesn’t excuse Israel's inhumane behavior. Its wanton slaughter and starvation of civilians over the last couple of years deserves all the condemnation it receives. Nor does condemning it in any way excuse the atrocities of other terrorists, such as Hamas. If we want peace in the world, we need to put leaders in place committed to creating the conditions that will make it possible rather than the criminals now leading Palestine, Israel and the U.S.
If Israel in general and Netanyahu in particular under that Hamas was/is a "suicidal Islamic death cult" then why did they did they fund Hamas for many years, right up until October 7th?
Israel allowed funding to go into Hamas/Gaza because they (erroneously, foolishly) chose not to believe the things Hamas was constantly saying about their true intentions. Israel learned by experiencing the sadistic massacre of 1200 people that Hamas actually, literally, meant what it said.
So feel free to criticize Israel for having had a way overoptimistic view of its neighbors in Gaza. But on October 7, the scales fell from their eyes. Have they fallen from yours?
The money going to Israel comes right back to the United States in the form of weapons purchases. It helps us fund our military industrial production.
Obama’s deal would have eventually given Iran nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons in the hands of a suicidal Islamic death cult, like the Iranian regime cannot be deterred by the usual doctrine of mutually assured destruction.
If Iran ever gets nuclear weapons, they will use them. And then when they get “martyred,“ that will be fine with that in paradise with their 72 virgins, as long as they have killed their enemies in the process.
For those who think that Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran are not suicidal Islamic death cults, consider this:
In 2005, Israel completely withdrew from Gaza and turned it over to the Palestinians. They could have built a thriving tourist economy on that Mediterranean beachfront property, but that’s not what they did.
Instead, they built the world’s largest tunnel network, and rockets to fire from it at Israel. Their goal was the destruction of Israel, and the fate of their own society mattered not at all to them.
In other words, a suicidal Islamic death cult that cared more about killing its enemies than about its own survival.
Criticizing Israel is OK. Obsessively criticizing only Israel is not OK.
If there is any people that ever needed its own homeland, it’s us Jews. Who else has thousands of years of history of being chased out of place after place, frequently massacred, and always discriminated against?
When World War II ended, the Jewish inhabitants of the Nazi concentration camps became “displaced persons” with absolutely nowhere to go but Israel. Some of them lingered in those camps for years after World War II ended.
Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meier once said that the Israelis have a secret weapon: they have nowhere else to go.
Under Obama’s vaunted deal, Iran would have been compliantly empowered to complete a nuclear weapon by this very year. Obama—in my view—believed all along that if Israel had nukes, they could and should not be denied to her Muslim neighbors, even—especially—Iran, the birthplace of his principal advisor, Valerie Jarrett. Reckless, even deliberate…Islamophilia? Better than anti-Semitism, to be certain. If mutually exclusive, anyway…
The “Palestinians” by a sizable majority, including sadly conscripted children, are willing shock troops for the wider fundamentalist pan-Islamic project. “Two-state solution” from Arafat until today has never meant anything but a figleaf for the No-State (no Jewish state) final solution.
So is Israel supposed to live under missile fire forever because the Islamic death cult terrorists who are firing those missiles hide behind human shields? Would you consent to live like that? I wouldn’t…
In other words, we're subsidizing their war crimes.
"Obama’s deal would have eventually given Iran nuclear weapons."
That's certainly what Trump says, but he's a pathological liar.
Given the situation you describe, I am disappointed and surprised that Israel has so openly handled West Bank settlements the way they have. It is as if they openly wanted the world to see that they felt entitled to treat the local population as 2nd class people, a Jim Crow-type brutality and lawless confiscation. MT, that is what young people see, not long-ago images of Nazi death camps. People see Israel acting like selfish racist brutes, and draw an unsurprising conclusion that Israel's story is untrustworthy. And so are its defenders. May I suggest that you write a guest post putting the West Bank settlement policy into context. I am sure there is an Israeli side of the story -- a best case. I suggest this because I agree there is some good argument that Israel's Gaza bombing policy is a matter of necessity. I think its blocking food and medical care is a harder thing to defend, but maybe it can be argued that Gaza children are, after all, future soldiers and fair game to starve-- a harder case to make. But make the case on West Bank settlements. People who come to the Israel problem without the holocaust story top of mind look at it and see monstrous cynicism and brutality, and they draw inferences. But maybe they simply haven't heard a more fair story, so fix that with an explaination that puts Israel in a better, fairer light.
Trump is not the source for the Obamas deal’s 2026 sunset provisions—the deal itself is. It did not grant Iran the “right” to a bomb, but it contained no method to prevent it should Iran so proceed. It has.
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