Why Trump won in 2024

Pollster David Shor has his reasons why Democrats lost in 2024.

I have mine.

Gifted article: no paywall

By now readers of this blog may have seen a version of this list of ten reasons for the November outcome. It has been published in The New York Times, Ezra Klein podcast about it, Axios republished the list without mentioning the source, and other commentators have summarized it. Here is the list:

Ten theories:

1. It's all Joe Biden's fault. For president, the party ran a deteriorating 81-year-old incumbent who had to drop out roughly 100 days before the election.
2. It's all Kamala Harris' fault. She was a bad candidate in 2019 and a weak choice in 2024.
3. Podcasts and social media. Harris and other Democrats should have gone on Joe Rogan's show, fully embraced TikTok, and met voters where they were.
4. Too "woke." Democrats struggled to defend their support for marginalized communities — transgender people, those who benefit from diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs, and others.
5. Elitist words. The party has become the party of the college-educated and for the college-educated.
6. Elitist policies. The working class has felt left behind by the Democratic Party as it's embraced free trade and other center-left technocratic policies. 
7. Testosterone. Many men, especially young men, feel Democrats don't have an agenda for them and don't seem to care about their problems. 
8. Inflation. Incumbents throughout the Western world have lost as voters vent about inflation. 
9. The border. Democrats mishandled the border under Biden and abandoned the tough-on-immigration policies the party had under Presidents Clinton and Obama, playing right into Trump's signature issue.
10. Trump is one-of-a-kind.  Many voters liked Trump and related to what he said.  

All these are accurate.

I would add that Democrats underestimate their own breach of faith with the American public. Trump lies so constantly and outrageously that it doesn't seem sneaky. Democrats lied and were sneaky about it, so -- incredibly enough --  Democrats came across as less trustworthy than Trump. Democrats need to face the fact that Biden and team covered up Biden's decline and then, even after the debate reveal, attempted to stick to the story that he was really okay. We could see with our own eyes that he wasn't capable, probably not now, certainly not for four more years. We saw it. 

Biden's team, which included Kamala Harris, asked Democrats to ignore what they saw at the debate. That was the Democrats' own "Big Lie." 

This lie was compounded by additional ones. Democrats pretended for three years that uncontrolled immigration wasn't a problem and hardship. They minimized it. I liken this to a physician telling someone with a painful hip or knee that they should live with it. Meanwhile another doctor was saying you need surgery. After three years in worsening pain, one loses faith in the first doctor. People lost faith in Biden's strength to notice and solve problems.

Democrats stuck to the story that the Covid virus was surely from a wet market, not a lab leak. Who knows how it really started? But the adamant way Democrats kept attacking the very idea of a Wuhan lab-leak seemed odd, like they were hiding something, just as they hid Biden's senility and the border mess. Why try to protect the Wuhan lab? It undermined the public's belief that Democrats were being honest about Covid. 

Democrats seemed to be bound and determined to defend their team -- even the most "out there" members of it -- on issues involving "woke" ideology.  One did not need to be transphobic to think that Lia Thomas winning NCAA swimming medals was unfair. 

Democrats insisted that decent, honorable people would ignore their own eyes. So, of course, Trump and the GOP made it an issue. 

Kamala Harris pivoted and dismissed hard questions. I watched her be asked if she was okay with abortions in the ninth month, two days before delivery. The answers she gave were evasive: That rarely comes up; that is just a GOP talking point; the question is nonsense; I support women and Roe v. Wade. The question gets posed again, asking for a direct answer whether she believed there is any limit whatever to abortion. Harris responds by saying she won't dignify that question by answering it. She had to dance around to keep from disturbing the abortion choice groups who want to hold the line that nobody but the woman has any say-so on abortion.

The net result was that there were two dishonest parties. Trump would lie to our faces, as part of his say-anything shtick. Harris would lie because she was hiding things Democrats could not admit because they were unpopular.

Icarus flew too close to the sun

I am not discouraged about the future. Trump is making the mistake common to gamblers on a winning streak, to lucky stock and options traders, and to Icarus of Greek myth. They overreach and leverage up. They forget the limits of the possible. They are winners and they think they are special. 

Democrats will probably wise up. The public wanted change, but Harris stuck to defending an unpopular status quo. Some Democrat will emerge, someone with the courage to criticize the errors of both the GOP and Democrats. A Democrat won't be a change agent if the candidate does not show they can criticize past Democratic errors. Voters will reward someone who doesn't defend the indefensible and who talks honestly with the American people.

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com  Subscribe. Don't pay. The blog is free and always will be.]