This was no accident

Trump told us who he was and what he would do.

A majority of Americans chose that.

There was a Trump-shift all across America. Ninety percent of America's counties gave Trump a higher margin yesterday than they did in 2020. For example, in 2020, my Jackson County, Oregon, home voted for Trump over Biden 50-47%, a three-point gap. We were purple. Yesterday Trump won, 52-45%. We are red now. 

In statewide voting in Oregon, Trump lost, 56-40% in 2020, a bright blue 16-point spread. Yesterday Trump lost 55-42, still blue, but closer.

Trump will claim a mandate from the American people. He will overstate it, of course, but he is not wrong. He won.

He will take actions. He will end U.S. support for Ukraine. Ukraine must settle for whatever terms they can get. Ukraine will get carved up and will cede Crimea and the eastern third of the country to Russia. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent Trump a congratulations message calling attention to  the "Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine." He is trying to put a good face on an impending disaster for his country. The war will end on Russian terms.

The U.S. will reduce its NATO commitments. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, and Poland see the handwriting on the wall. A Russian invasion against them isn't an invasion against the USA, not anymore. They are on their own, so they will scramble to make themselves harmless to Russia, or its friend.

Netanyahu rushed a congratulation to Trump. Israel will have a free hand now to do what it will with Gaza.

Domestically, Trump was just declared "not guilty" for his behavior surrounding the 2020 election. He will fire Special Prosecutor Jack Smith, pardon and apologize to the January 6 Capitol rioters, and condemn the ongoing state prosecution in Georgia. He will get a slap on the wrist for the 34 business-records hush money felonies. He will say the public vindicated him. I consider his effort to overthrow the 2020 election to be a crime against our democracy. I agree with Mike Pence and Liz Cheney when they said a person who would do this should never be allowed near the Oval Office. But half of Americans don't see it that way.

Trump will crack down on the border, and do so with a dramatic flair. We will see concertina wire, mass roundups, and highly-publicized deportations. It will divide families of mixed status. There will be complaints and images of "good people" being sent away. A majority of Americans want to see people being forced out of the country against their will. 

A majority of people are concerned about transgender men in female spaces, including sports and bathrooms. Trump found a wedge issue. He will box Democrats' gender ideology orthodoxy -- that it is fluid and a social construct -- into a politically untenable corner. This will be a bad period for people with gender dysphoria. 

Trump will challenge the 14th Amendment statement that people born in the U.S. are citizens. A court somewhere -- perhaps the friendly Amarillo, Texas, court of Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk -- will deny someone the ability to register to vote, claiming that his U.S. birth to an undocumented mother did not confer citizenship. The Fifth Circuit will concur. It will go to the Supreme Court with Trump's strong support. The Supreme Court will reconsider the 1898 U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark decision. That court said Wong, having been born in San Francisco, was a U.S. citizen, even if he was of Chinese ethnicity at a time when people of Chinese ethnicity were unwelcome. This will be a popular issue for Trump. The Supreme Court may reverse the century-old precedent.

Trump understands that abortion bans are unpopular. He will let red states go crazy if they want, and some will, but he will stop a national abortion ban. People who really want an abortion will need to travel.

Trump has deep flaws as a messenger, but a great many people saw those flaws and simply looked past them. He has an agenda, and he sold it to America. 

Democrats will attempt to confound its implementation, but resistance will be incomplete. His issues had popular support.

What Trump supporters may well find out, though, is that his agenda was far more popular as an idea than it will be as a reality. That was the story of abortion bans. It will be the same with chaos in Europe, ending the ACA, tariffs, and mass deportations. Most of Trump's agenda will age very badly. Success sows the seeds of over-reach and its own reversal.

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