What if the people who shape Democratic Party policy are out of touch with American voters?
The people least happy with Democrats are the people they are trying to help.
I may be part of the problem.
Look at this chart from the AP VoteCast people:
Trump stomped on every Democratic constituency. He told climate activists that the U.S. should withdraw from the Paris climate accords. He mocked green energy as fruitless. He said his first item of business was to drill, baby, drill. To abortion rights groups he proudly claimed he killed Roe v. Wade and he would let states ban abortion if they chose. He told pro-immigration Democrats that immigrants from Africa and Latin America are dangerous people who poison the blood of real Americans. He told Muslims he would attempt to ban them from entering the U.S. on religious grounds, but failing that, on the basis of country of origin. Moreover, he would give Israel pretty much a free hand to do what it wants with its Muslim population. Women heard him brag about groping women. Voting rights activists saw him appoint judges who limited voting rights. Disabled people saw him mock a disabled person and they learned he told his generals he didn't want to be seen with disabled veterans. The LGBTQ community watched him mock trans people and gender-pronoun statements. ACLU liberals who want separation of church and state saw him hold up a Bible and surround himself with Christian nationalists.
Democrats need to confront the fact that Democrats were rejected by the people they tried hardest to help. Ponder that. Democrats lost ground among Black people, Hispanics, poor people, working people, women, college students, immigrants, immigrant communities, maybe even non-trans gays.
Democrats are out of touch. Too much policy is made by people alongside me at the tiny blue end of the cone.
Punctilious Democrats say "Latinx." Spanish-speakers don't.
Punctilious Democrats announce their preferred pronouns, as if gender identity is the first and most important thing to get right.
Democrats oppose the cruelty of rejecting asylum seekers. Democrats defend "dreamers" and condemned family separation if Trump goes through with his promise of mass deportation. Yet the areas with the most Hispanics and families of mixed status shifted red the most. The darker the area on the map, the more Hispanics, and the greater the red arrows. They are okay with what Trump says. They don't think it is cruel. They think it is sensible. Or necessary.
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| Associated Press/Financial Times |
Democrats defended "childless cat ladies" and abortion rights. Yet female voters shifted red. Maybe misogyny isn't a deal-killer for women. Or maybe modern feminism, as it is voiced by people in the blue part of the cone, contains an implied criticism of motherhood that a lot of women resent. Maybe we are in a post-Covid counter-revolution, in which women are de-emphasizing careers, and Democrats are slow to notice it. Something is going on, and we don't know what it is, do we, Mr. Jones?
Democrats want to protect the climate, but areas most at risk from the rising sea level (South Florida), from hurricanes (coastal U.S. South), and from environmental damage from fracking (central Pennsylvania, west Texas, North Dakota) shifted red.
Democrats fought to protect union auto workers. Union leaders could not stop their rank-and-file workers from preferring Trump.
Democrats in the Pacific Northwest support climate action and cite forest fire risk. We experienced summer days of choking smoke. It was miserable. We got clear notice. Yet Oregon shifted red.
What does this all mean for Democrats and their social justice and climate agenda? Some things just leave me dismayed. Apparently a great number of Americans simply don't care about Trump's assault on our legal and Constitutional system. Trump's nominees all pass Trump's litmus test of saying Trump did no wrong in trying to overthrow the election. Critics of election denial are in the GOP wilderness.
I still think it is wrong and disqualifying.
But maybe there are some areas where policy and message adjustment is possible. Some of the point-of-the-spear social justice issues advanced by Democrats are a turnoff to American voters. Americans support abortion rights, but at some point -- approximately Roe v. Wade's 22 weeks -- voters say "no" to abortion unless the life of the mother is at risk. Maybe Democrats should say that clearly. Kamala Harris would not.
Democrats have been reluctant to draw lines on male-to-female trans athletes competing as women. If Democrats don't create boundaries, homophobic bigots will, with the support of the public.
On climate, maybe Democrats need to recognize that price matters. Americans like energy to be cheap. It is short-sighted, but that happens in a democracy. Americans will willingly shift to greener energy when it is less expensive than fossil fuels. Democrats should work on that, not making gasoline expensive. The alternative is an election like the one last week.
Democrats probably need to rethink affirmative action. The public -- including its supposed beneficiaries -- thinks it is unfair and discriminatory.
More of these will emerge in the months ahead. We live in a democracy. There is little value in being "right" and unpopular. That approach empowers one's opposition. The opponent may not be a nice guy.
18 comments:
Well, I do think it’s ridiculous to have former boys turned girls compete as a girl in sports. Physically they aren’t really girls, they are something in between. We need to let up on all the scolding for using the wrong preferred wording, even I get annoyed at that. Focus on working class values should be the sweet spot, and maybe things will turn around. Rural health care will suffer more under Trump I’m predicting and as they experience Republicans screwing over the lower income people maybe they will think it’s in their self interest to vote democrat. It’s going to take time, but the truth eventually does come out.
As a Chinese immigrant student of mine once said in response to something I told the class:
That’s a whole lot of make sense.
It will also get you canceled in the precincts of the elite college educated left, where “make sense” has no chance against woke orthodoxy, and heretics are burned at the rhetorical stake.
There’s an old saying that to get the attention of a donkey you first have to slam it in the head with a 2 x 4. I am hoping that last week’s election was just such a 2 x 4, and that the donkey is finally paying attention.
There's much in the framing. For instance:
"Punctilious Democrats say 'Latinx'. Spanish-speakers don't. Democrats oppose the cruelty of rejecting asylum seekers."
Or?
"Sanctimonious Democrats say 'Latinx'. 'Homophobic bigots' don't. Democrats approve the wanton acceptance of pretextual 'asylum' claims."
Being "right and unpopular" is the pharisee's very raison d'etre. The equal opposite, perhaps, of "Hegseth for Defense Secretary". Sigh.
Anybody with even a vestigial conscience knows that character matters, and Trump’s is deplorable for all the reasons we know so well. However, voters in this election were apparently more concerned about the price of gas and eggs than the stare of our democracy. We’ll see how happy they remain with their choice when his tariffs kick in. But his biggest economic threat is his promise to exacerbate climate change, which has already cost the U.S. trillions of dollars and is getting worse.
Trump claims he won the 2020 election and called for termination of the Constitution in 2022, but voters were more concerned about economics. Climate change is costing us an enormous amount, but he calls it a hoax. When the leader of the free world is delusional, how long before our freedom becomes a delusion?
You forgot to mention "Land Acknowledgment Statements." Hilarious.
Also, I may be wrong but I read that no matter how hard they try to hammer down testosterone in a man who becomes a woman (trans-woman), that testosterone is still higher than a woman's who is trying to become a man (trans-man) despite all the added testosterone. I don't know how that translates (!) into being a bigot.
Funny story: At a recent football game I attended, the announcer misspoke and introduced the university's head of "DIVERSION, equity and inclusion." It remained uncorrected and I said, "Sign me up!"
Voters concerned about the economy were repeatedly told the economy was bad due to misinformation from right wing media.
And they think life will get better for them when republicans, once again, screw up the economy.
Dave, I'm not as optimistic.
If people didn't repeatedly vote against their own interests there would be no red states.
The republicans have spent decades trying to ruin US government, and they won't stop until all of us are 100% controlled by corporations.
Bleed the beast. Google it.
Excellent piece, Peter. I've been thinking a lot about the criticism of "elites" and, as someone who probably fits in that category, whether the label is something to embrace and accept or something that should provoke a lot of soul searching. But in terms of the election, much has to do with what we expect of a President. For whatever reason, I think of our President as our chief diplomat. So when I'm deciding whom to vote for, the way the candidate presents to the world is of primary importance. Since Trump is all of the dishonorable and unethical things you listed, and especially a person who thinks rules don't apply to him, he is the last person I want representing me in the world. It's just embarrassing. But I have no financial worries, will never have to job hunt again and am almost completely insulated from the non-medical problems of every day life. So maybe I shouldn't judge those who are willing to overlook Trump's criminality, greed and sexism because they think his policies are more in line with their vision than the Democrats.' But to the rest of the world, I fear all Americans will be viewed the way he is, and he certainly does not represent me.
Not being a Republican, I've never obsessed much over trans-gender. There really aren't that many of them. I think you'd have to be pretty weird to imagine that it's some kind of national issue that can determine elections.
I believe everyone is looking for answers in the wrong places. The people who voted for Trump actually think he is going to do something right, when in fact he will do nothing right and so far is on a very dark path. The people who are trying to figure out why Trump won are forgetting the only real reason: Misinformation. Millions of people understand that he is a fraud and a danger to our country, but millions get their news from social media and have no idea what is going on, nor do they understand how government works. These people, along with rich people who would like to see our country ruled by oligarchs and those who desire a so-called "Christian Nation", outnumber the rest of us.
Democracy depends on an educated and informed electorate and we do not have that at this time. Strategizing about what democrats should or should not have done is not helpful, in my opinion. Figuring out how to educate and inform people is what needs to happen. In a country where too many people prefer ignorance and misinformation, it's hard to figure out how to accomplish this but I hope we find a way before it's too late.
Well, they all voted for him. If things go wrong, it's on them. With control of the Senate and House, there is nothing to stop him from doing anything. All of his advisors are "yes men". He has immunity for everything. Even dictators envy him. Gatz as AG? It gets worse. Kiss Ukraine goodbye. The only hope for the Democrats is that he's so bad, the country will turn to anyone the Democrats put up in the next election. You only have to hold your breath for 4 years.
Not so weird when you look at the effectiveness of Trump’s they/them versus us ad. It may not have determined the election, but it was a significant factor.
Normie voters do not like seeing biological males dominating women’s sports.
I remember the transition from the Carter administration to the Reagan administration. We had just experienced the OPEC oil embargo and the push to conserve energy and live more simply. The freeway speed was lowered to 50 miles per hour even though the highway was designed to be driven between 70 and 80 miles per hour. Gas prices, where you could find it, doubled or tripled in price. I remember driving our new white VW bug from Medford to Boston, making 15 stops to fill up, never spending more than $3. That is 45 dollars in gas to cross the continent just two years before. Prices for everything shot up, but it took years for wages to catch up.
I can understand exactly how people felt and how they placed the blame squarely on Democrat Jimmy Carter. Most of the energy policies of that day were scraped by Reagan. Down came the first-generation solar panels on top of the White House. You could see the price of oil moving through the US economy. Everything, goods, services, and food, one by one, had to increase in price. The oil shock moved through our economy like a "pig through a python," the saying of the day. The prices never came down. The Carter administration appeared to be weak.
Yes, most Americans were glad to see Reagan say we could stop all this conservation nonsense. The country was humming again. No more sweater-wearing; turn the thermostat up! Reagan communicated that America was back, but many were out of work because of the slowing economy caused by the oil price shock.
Jennifer is right. As Democrats do their soul-searching, they shouldn’t forget the soul of our republic – elections and the rule of law – which Trump violated just as he did E. Jean Carrol. He should have been in prison, not running for president.
Disinformation was undoubtedly a bigger factor in deciding the election than the economy, which isn’t that bad. Another is that too many Americans are actually attracted by his treasonous criminality, like the proverbial moths to the flame. If satisfying their lust for anger and hatred is the price of winning, better we lose with honor.
You can’t “educate and inform“ the voters from the outside. You have to meet them where they are and tell them things that make sense to them, where they are.
Working class voters have very good reason not to trust the elites, and are not receptive to being “educated and informed“ by them, especially not after decades of having their economic lives destroyed by things like NAFTA that were imposed on them by those elites.
“You can’t “educate and inform“ the voters from the outside. You have to meet them where they are…”
Those voters are wildly cheering a criminal madman who couldn’t care less about them and eagerly swallowing the anger and hatred he spews. Let’s not meet them there.
Actually, Nixon lowered the highway speed limit to 55 mph in 1974. It was lifted in 1995. But you are right: Everyone remembers it as Carter and blames him.
Refusal to meet voters where they are means continuing to lose elections. Who cares about winning when you can ride that high moral horse instead?
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