"The judge, who, as you know, is very conflicted and corrupt. Because of the confliction, very, very corrupt. Mother Teresa could not beat these charges. These charges are rigged. The whole thing is rigged."Donald Trump, while the jury began deliberations
Democrats are checking the news in hope of a game-changing guilty verdict.
The result of the trial is already in: Trump will survive and thrive.
Possible outcome #1. A unanimous jury says "not-guilty." Jurors could decide that making this a felony was a stretch because every candidate tries to show off some bits of information and hide others. They might decide this was tawdry, sure, but not a crime.
There is no way to sugar coat this for Democrats. A not-guilty verdict would be a disaster. It would feel like election night in 2016, with shocked faces on the faces of MSNBC hosts. It would discredit both liberal news and mainstream news, which had given Democrats false hope.
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| Liberal tears, election night, 2016 |
Trump would say he was proven right, that this was a "witch hunt." A not-guilty verdict would validate and accelerate his plans for political prosecutions. It would suck the wind out of the sails of the other, stalled, prosecutions. It would be a centerpiece of Trump's campaign.
Possible outcome #2. A long deliberation and then a hung jury. Trump would say he was found "completely and totally innocent." Republican officeholders and conservative news would echo that story. Not being found guilty is not the same as being "found innocent," but that is how Republicans will describe it: Trump vindicated! Establishment news sources would admit it was a defeat for the prosecution. A hung jury would end the prosecution on this case.
It would not matter if a majority of the jurors said Trump was guilty; even an 11-1 majority. The headline would be that Trump was not convicted, notwithstanding a Democratic DA's best efforts. Even an 11-1 split in favor of guilty helps Trump. It would add to the myth that Trump is untouchable, even when he tempts fate. He wins even after the Access Hollywood revelation. He wins the impeachment vote even when he publicly plots to overthrow an election in the very building where his Senate jury meets. He wins notwithstanding his signature right there on checks to pay off a porn star. Nothing can stop him. A narrow victory parallels the Trump-as-messiah meme. Powerful elites can crucify him, and he can be written off as dead, but he comes back for the win. There is drama in surviving a close call or making a buzzer-beating clutch play in a championship game.
Possible outcome #3. A guilty verdict. Democrats will rejoice for a moment, but the joy won't last. I liken it to Santa bringing the longed-for bicycle, but then having the bicycle promptly vandalized and stolen.
The political meaning of the verdict will not be that "Trump is a felon," and that felons are bad, so therefore Trump is bad. Democrats will say that, but it won't stick. It will look like over-reach. We have an idea of what a "felon" is. Felons are frightening. They hurt people. This is different. This is Donald Trump. He is vile. He is flagrantly dishonest. He is a dangerous political leader, but he is not dangerous as a tabloid horndog who lies to us about sex.
The meaning of a guilty verdict, as it will be understood by Americans on the margin in battleground states, is that the powerful and corrupt Democratic elites snagged Trump on some bulls___ technicality. Maybe they rigged the justice system -- just like Trump says. Maybe there was a vast conspiracy of corrupt elites. Or maybe they just found some excuse to use a good legal system to harass him. Either way, the prosecution is the bad guy here. That is the story.
Trump is telling it repeatedly. He has rounded up his political and media allies to echo and validate him. I watched two minutes of Fox News last night.
The inescapable problem with this prosecution is that nobody learns anything we didn't already know, even with a guilty verdict. Of course Trump had sex with Stormy Daniels, and of course he shamelessly lies about it. Of course he paid her off via his "fixer," and of course he tried to keep the information from damaging his campaign. That is Donald Trump, the tabloid playboy horn-dog scofflaw.
People who might vote against him dislike him because he is a dangerous leader, not because of this.
I cannot see any upside in this case.
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14 comments:
Sitting in court falling asleep and repeated farting was not a good look. It showed he is old, not powerful. Plus let’s see what the sentence would be if guilty. I have already gotten some satisfaction from all this regardless of what transpires next. Remember how he had to listen to perspective jurors talk about him in harsh terms? Accountability comes in different ways, but history will not look favorably on this human being. If Americans elect this corrupt person then it deserves the downfall that will ensue. If God blesses America maybe he will die soon, death and taxes, except maybe just death for him.
Here's the upside I see:
Trump is found guilty on all counts. Because Trump did his utmost to irritate the judge who has full discretion over his punishment in the case of a guilty verdict, judge immediately has him remanded to Rikers Island..
Ouila! all the bullshit Trump spews stops immediately and he can chill out there while awaiting a chance to appeal. Just like literally anyone else would have to do if they were found guilty of 34 counts. I'm not optimistic that exact scenario will happen, but I think it's possible.
We are fortunate that these cases have been brought to keep a spotlight on the corruption in the Republican party. Had Trump won none of this would be happening.
A bad judge in Florida, a compromised partisan SCOTUS, a ringer in NY; these things will move some voters away from Republicans. Haley's betrayal shocked some of her supporters into an awareness of the depth of the fraud in their party.
Only a fraction of trials end in hung juries. Trump may not be found guilty on all 34 counts, but short of a ringer there will be accountability. The salient fact from this will be the realization that the 2016 election was compromised and that's not nothing.
I'll take issue with one thing: Nobody actually likes Trump, not really. At best he's a curiosity, whose novelty is wearing thin. Soon the merch sales will drop off, the tirades predictably boring, and the public mood will shift. There is a strong possibility of a Trump collapse as the incremental effects build up...it's not like the pressure will let up.
Only an arrogant, delusional, strange person believes that he knows what all Democrats think. You're a legend in your own mind. Maybe it is the "Harvard effect," what going to that school does to people (sad).
Trump is guilty of fraud (his bogus “university’ and “charity”), he’s guilty of sexual abuse (E. Jean Carroll), he’s a compulsive liar (30,573 false or misleading statements over four years) and a power-mad aspiring tyrant who “fell in love” with Kim Jong Un, and tried to overthrow the government (on live TV). In other words, we already know he’s a sleazy, traitorous scam artist. His base finds it appealing, and those who depend on his base for their own election grovel before him.
The verdict in this trial won’t change what Trump is or what people think about him, so there may be no upside in this case but there’s no downside either. And it couldn’t happen to a more deserving scumbag.
Alvin Bragg, the New York DA who brought this case against Donald Trump, is a grandstanding putz whose only accomplishment has been publicity for himself and Donald Trump. Unfortunately, even bad publicity helps Donald Trump
Well the update comments now needs to include he was found guilty of 34 counts. I guess that makes him a felon.
Yes - of the verdicts Peter offered, the jurors chose door number three. Trump is historic: the most impeached president and the first convicted felon to run for president. Of course, this will only deepen the devotion of his whack-job far-White base. His lies about the election being rigged were getting mighty stale, so this gives them a fresh, hot steaming pile of BS to lap up: THE TRIAL WAS RIGGED!!!
Poor, poor pitiful Trump - he reminds himself of Jesus.
The events of the day remind me of a historical moment. D-Day was June 6th, 1944, when the Allies landed on the Normandy Beaches and began the long march inland to the heart of Nazi Germany. Today, like the preparation for the invasion of Nazified Europe, the legal preparations started, leading us to this moment. D-Day, like today, is remembered not as a victory but as the beginning of the end.
Much remains to be done. We have Trump sympathizers and a hollowed-out Republican Party, but the beachhead (verdict) holds. Forward motion is underway. Hopefully, the forces for democracy will rise in defense of our republic. It is a turning point. Trump is a convicted felon.
For Judge Merchan, politics cannot be the consideration. Instead, he must apply the standards that courts always must consider when sentencing a criminal, which includes: deterring the defendant from commiting crimes in the future; deterring people in general from commiting crimes and, in particular, deterring people from commiting the crime in question; and punishing the defendant in proportion to the seriousness of the crime. Judge Merchan has a tough assignment for July 11.
The "grandstanding putz" who quietly and efficiently , following the rule of law, convicted a former President of 34 Felonies, with a Jury selected according the laws of the State of New York and the general rule of law. Suck it up Mr. trigoboff, your guy is now a Convicted Felon, no matter how much that sours your stomach.
Trump guilty by a landslide.
The felon will be sentenced to house arrest and be forced to campaign from his basement while President Biden, who is not a felon, is free to roam the country.
Trump is not “my guy”, Ed. You somehow seem to have missed all the times I said so.
But unlike many around here, I understand Trump’s populist appeal, and have a lot of sympathy for the working class people who have been screwed over by our heedless elites for the past three+ decades.
When the convictions were announced, there was a surge of online contributions to the Trump campaign so large that it briefly crashed the campaign contribution site. It remains to be seen whether the convictions will help or hurt Trump, and who will have to suck what up in November.
Unlike Mr. Trigoboff, many around here recognize that Trump and his contributors ARE the "elites."
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