“The degree to which the cost of living is the biggest pain point for voters today cannot be overstated. . . . There are significant numbers of voters who appear willing to risk the future of democracy because they believe Trump could help get costs down.”
Patrick Toomey, Partner at Democratic Polling firm BSG
I probably overestimate how much people care about democracy, rule of law, and good political process.
That miscalculation caused me to think voters would surely like the two Jackson County measures that would make the positions nonpartisan and increase their number from three to five. It opens up the process for disenfranchised nonaffiliated voters. That's good, right?
It turns out people people did not care much.
There is a lesson in that for Democrats watching the presidential race. I think Trump's open and now-proud effort to overturn the 2020 election, along with a fake electors scheme, are disqualifiers for public office. They cannot be ignored. Nor can taking secret documents home, hiding them, and lying to the FBI about them. This wasn't carelessness. It was premeditated and corrupt.
What is wrong with my Republican friends and neighbors who observe this and support him anyway?
They don't care very much about them. "Democracy" isn't all that important. Not compared with the economy and public safety.
Possibly half of Republican voters -- the people who buy "Trump Won" flags and banners at this pop-up store on the highway north of Medford -- actively support the January 6 insurrection and consider Trump a hero.
There is another set of Republican voters who aren't MAGA crazy, but who like to vote for Republicans because they always have. They are part of the red team. At first they thought January 6 was wrong, but with Trump continuing to be popular and adamant he is completely innocent, they are coming now to think maybe Trump is OK. Not perfect, but of course better than any Democrat.
Maybe some of those voters remain swing voters. Nikki Haley was a vehicle for them. She said clearly and forthrightly that Donald Trump is unfit for office and a danger to democracy. She just said she would vote for Trump to be president. She is protecting her future within the Republican party.
A Cook Political Report poll shows Trump ahead by several points in all the battleground states. The polling gets worse for Biden when third party candidates are included because RFK, Jr. gets about 8% of the vote and Jill Stein and Cornell West currently get about 2% each.
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| Click Here: Cook swing state survey |
The poll indicated that the single biggest concerns are not democracy or the rule of law. It is inflation. Inflation defines economic distress for 54% of the public. The record high stock market, the near-record low unemployment, and the very strong increase in household income are secondary issues.
It's the economy, stupid. Not democracy. Economies are hard to change. Biden will go into the November election with the economy he now has, and that is the best case.
Is Biden doomed? I think not. A guilty verdict in New York might help on the margin, but Trump has already de-legitimized a potential guilty verdict in the New York documents case. He says it should not have been prosecuted, the DA and judge are biased, the jury is biased, and that Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen are liars.
The local election outcome was not encouraging. Democracy and talk of "good government" are not the motivators I thought they were. What gives me optimism is Trump's near-infinite capacity to self-destruct. He is acting more erratic and unhinged than before. Four years ago, when the attention of the public was on him, they saw a crude bully in his debate with Biden. They saw a man unfit for the office. They will weigh Biden's age against Trump's crazy. Biden cannot escape his age. Trump cannot escape his own temperament.
My expectation is that, on the margin, more people will consider Trump the more dangerous choice. A crazy leader can ruin the economy.
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7 comments:
So people are upset about a declining inflation rate of about 3% !
It was reported yesterday that Argentina, once the world's 9th largest economy is enduring an Inflation rate of 300% annually. Just 3 1/2 years ago, when indicted felon Drumpf was pried out of the White House, kicking and crying, Inflation in this Country was 9.7%,
Unemployment was rampant and thousands of people were dying of COVID every month
And now it's quite possible the architect of all that chaos may be reelected.
Apropos of the possibilities that Drumpf never gets held accountable for any of his multitude of crimes ( alleged, snicker), I heard in NPR this morning that Zuma of South Africa has been ruled ineligible to run for reelection because of the 16 months he spent in prison for Contempt of Court. Oh, BTE, it didn't take nearly 4 years to put him in the jug, either.
This Country is becoming a laughingstock around the world
Major Silicon Valley investors are backing former President Donald Trump after expressing disgust for President Joe Biden’s anti-growth policy proposals.
“It’s impossible to support Biden,” Keith Rabois, an early leader at PayPal, who also played key roles at LinkedIn, Square, and Slide, said. Rabois did clarify that while he is not a fan of Trump, he would be working to elect a Republican House and Senate.
Other prominent big tech moguls including David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya, Marc Andreessen, and Shaun Maguire have tired of Biden’s proposals, including a 25 percent “billionaire tax” and antitrust crackdowns enacted by the Democrat majority at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).
Other tech executives also opposed oppressive regulations imposed by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler.
Andreessen, the founder of large venture capitalist firm Andreessen Horowitz, said that there are “real issues” with the Biden administration. He said that a second Trump administration would be staffed by “very different kinds of people” at the SEC and FTC.
"Democracy" isn't all that important. Not compared with the economy ….” First mistake: we don’t have a Democracy.
We have an Imperialist Fascist Republic (if we can keep it). Mussolini famously said, "Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." The economy, and even bumps in the road like the pandemic, exist solely to transfer wealth up the food chain to the ruling Billionaires. Do you think Powell is fighting inflation to ease working class struggles? No, lower interest rates fuel better investment opportunities. Even on the Democratic Silicon Valley donor side, the aim is techno-feudalism: enslavement of worker consumer drones to feed the machine.
The thing is, the voters have figured out the matrix and are opting for the red pill.
My moderate Republican friends like Trump’s policies, but just wish he would shut up. He’s an ENTERTAINER. Dictatorship on day one? Three terms? He’s KIDDING. He knows the media will lap up his outrageous comments and that’s the point.
“A crazy leader can ruin the economy.“ That’s what I thought when I pulled my investments out into cash after the 2016 election. Big mistake…
I agree with you that many people follow politics the way you or I follow sports. I occasionally catch the talking heads on ESPN opine ABOUT sports so I can relate to sports fans. It’s surprising how much I can appear to know without actually knowing.
When I tune in to conservative media, I never hear any substance. It’s all grievance and complaints about the “disaster” or “travesty” of Biden or his policies, or how unfair and predatory the evil left is on their righteous and noble hero, Trump. If that’s your constant diet, it’s no wonder people can’t see the risks to our republic.
I don't trust the polls. If they are by telephone, I know that I cannot be reached that way, as I screen my calls. I think that many other people also do the same. So who is available to take calls and answer polls?
Americans and the U.S. have always valued money above life itself. That’s why the Founders engaged in slavery in spite of their high ideals, why we fought a civil war over it, and why our troops are now deployed as glorified security guards, protecting the overseas interests of multi-national corporations. And that’s why Mark Twain’s observation remains so relevant: “We have the best government money can buy.”
An ‘anonymous’ commentor claims that when Trump exposes his autocratic aspirations, “He’s KIDDING.” Don’t make me laugh. Trump engaged in a coup attempt. After it failed, he called for the Constitution to be terminated so he could be reinstated (on Dec. 4, 2022). That is no joke.
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