Everyman, 16th Century England
"All we want are the facts, ma'am"
Sergeant Joe Friday, 20th Century USA
Discussion of Joe Biden's age is inherently political and controversial. This blog gets sharply negative comments. "Why are you bringing that up, Peter? Why do you hate Biden? Why are you trying to hurt Democrats?"
I asked Michael Wallace, a college classmate, to provide me some facts and to share his own opinion. After college Wallace joined the Peace Corps and then returned to obtain a Ph.D. from the JFK School of Government, where he developed some math and spreadsheet skills I lack. He retired in 2018 and enjoys daily walks with his dog Layla.
Here are the facts:
Guest Post by Michael Wallace
Being someone who wants to "put a number on it," I decided to calculate the likelihood of Biden and Trump dying in office if one of them is elected President in 2024. I used the Social Security Actuarial Life Table for my calculations (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1). I rounded ages to the nearest year. I have not attempted to compensate for the personal health of anyone mentioned here.
32 comments:
What Biden has accomplished is undeniable, although it pales in comparison to building the Great Wall of Trump and making Mexico pay for it. But age affects us all. The anonymous person making the comments Peter refers to sounds like an elder in desperate denial of the fact that death could be lurking around the next corner – much like Republicans in denial of having lost an election.
Most interesting post this morning. I suspectvthe vitriole directed at you when bringing up the fact of the Presidents age is from people who are afraid of facing their own mortality. After all, while Denial is not a River in Egypt, it's quite useful for folks who choose to think they are going to live forever, and hate being reminded if yhe opposite reality.
I appreciate your gesture posting the link to the Actuarial site. I surprised myself when I looked at my prospects. I'm going to plant a Fig Tree today, possibly two, as it seems I stand a pretty good chance of enjoying the Fruit before stepping onto the Rainbow Bridge.
“He was determined to live forever or die in the attempt.”
— Joseph Heller, Catch-22
I plan to live forever. So far so good.
Fortunately, or unfortunately, the Social Security life expectancy tables do not include the very substantial difference in life expectancy due to income, ethnicity or education level. I suspect that if Michael used the statistics for white males, with a college plus education, earning in the top 1%, the life expectancy might be as much as 5 years higher.
False Advertising. And don't you ever get sick of playing the same gloomy, "old" broken record? Apparently not.
"We need younger people in the Oval Office" is Not A Fact. It is an opinion and a personal preference.
It is very sad that Mr. Peace Corps and other ageist people don't respect older people. I guess they never heard of tribal elders, "wisdom before beauty," etc.
We live in a throw society and unfortunately some people want to see older and disabled people tossed aside like refuse.
Sorry to inform you, but stats and averages don't apply to individuals. Some people live very long, happy and productive lives. Back to school for you.
The blogger is happy to peddle ageism and ableism on a weekly basis (if not more frequently). Pushing hate and discrimination just like racists, homophobes and misogynists.
In spite of being more advanced in age and having a much more difficult job, Joe Biden is doing much better mentally than the author of this blog. He is not cranky, negative and he doesn't keep repeating himself.
Maybe the author of this blog should retire his keyboard and let younger bloggers take over. Take your own advice.
The Gray Panthers and AARP still have a lot of work to do in our hyper youth-obsessed culture. The self-loathing coming from the "old, white guy" who writes this blog, and his associates, is appalling.
Wrong, it is called Ageism. Look it up.
Having tried to commit suicide twice, I am no stranger to the idea of dying. There are many days I wish I didn't wake up in the morning to face another day of haters, jerks and degenerates.
This blog is "racist" against older people. You seem to understand that word. Not quite sure how you can live with yourself, being so hateful.
Probably the saddest and sickest (pathological) part is how much you enjoy insulting senior citizens and stirring the pot. You certainly have several things in common with the former Occupant, your idol.
It is almost to the point that the only reason to read this rag is to provide an alternative view to the daily garbage dump.
I am looking for better political blogs and I am open to suggestions from other non-Ageist readers. Thanks in advance!
Try keeping up to speed with science and medicine; investigate biological vs. chronological age. Joe Biden is downright "youthful" compared to many of the "old, white" geezers on this blog.
Love our amazing, inspiring, knowledgeable and experienced seniors (except for the crusty haters). They have been there done that. Younger people have so much to learn from older generations. They are an incredible resource for all of us. Wish my greats and grands were still alive. Now they are my angels.
Do me a favor. Tell your statistics to shut up.
Good post,Michael W. And nice spreadsheet.
I realize you were only addressing actuarial tables, but I think thats-unfortunately-only giving us averages.
There are many things besides averages to consider when trying to determine how many years these two gentlemen will delay going to heaven, or hell. (Oops; make that ONE gentleman and one fascist pig.)
Among others, family history, especially fathers, siblings, and offspring.
How about medical history?.
How about lifestyle? Trump brags about eating mostly junk food (what a stud)-and he certainly looks like it. He’s got a terrible complexion, even with all the makeup. He’s morbidly obese; what do more in depth tables say about obesity? (We all know that answer!)
Another very important lifestyle issue: Trump shuns all forms of exercise; indeed, the grapevine says he believes exercise WEARS OUT the heart. Indeed, he claims, we are each given a heart with a fixed number of beats; why use them up exercising for no good reason?
I say dollars to doughnuts that, barring an assassination or two, Joe's gonna outlive Donald.
What is so gloriously splendid about writing this blog is realizing that even people who dislike the blog, dislike and disrespect me, and who scorn it and me publicly --all that -- and they still take a couple minutes to read my blog, and take time to share their thoughts.
Life I love you, all is groovy.
Peter Sage
Anon, I’m of the opinion that neither Michael nor Peter are trying to attack us old folks. I think they’re trying to convince us to stop supporting Biden, and his age is the excuse they need.
I see lots of folks beat me to the fact that these averages are almost meaningless. Their posts weren’t there when I submitted mine.
Nice quote, Michael T. Here’s another one you probably have already heard.
I've never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure.—Mark Twain
That one’s good too, Malcolm.
Personally, I'm a war baby. It sounds like most of the commenters here are at least baby boomers. We can all sit around and pump out whatever we want from our keyboards, but running the country is another story. Our generation has done enough damage. It's time we step aside and let the kids clean up our mess.
Note to commenters.
Even though I may not publish your comment because it is ad hominem, and those distract from my goal of civil discourse, please know I read and am grateful. I love knowing that people engage emotionally with what I write, and choose to let me know. I am especially happy to see passionate support for Biden by some Democrats. I have not seen as much of that as I have hoped. My wife and I were the only Southern Oregon participants at Biden’s sole rally/fundraiser in Oregon in 2022. The venue had room for more supporters willing to show up and put their money on the line. I hope to see more representation from this area next time, and these comments make me optimistic. Great!
Thanks to all of you for being part of my engaged readers.
Peter Sage
We boomers took the situation we were born into and did what we could to improve things. Were we perfect? Not at all. But neither were we uniquely bad.
Hopefully the kids will be able to build on what we accomplished just like we did with what our parents had built. But the kids won’t be any more perfect than we were.
And some day, a subsequent generation will look at these former kids with every bit as much disapproval as these kids today look at us boomers.
And, to quote Kurt Vonnegut, so it goes…
Our three most notable accomplishments the national debt, climate change and Trumpism. That's a quite a legacy. Our offspring may come up with a name for us, but I'll bet it won't be anything like "The Greatest Generation."
Boomer accomplishments;
* Rock music.
* Opening up the conformist culture of the 1950s. The hippie counterculture.
* The birth of the gay rights, civil rights, and 2nd gen women’s rights movements.
* Tech, including the start of personal computers, the invention of graphical user interfaces, the Internet, and the culture of startup companies.
We didn’t have a righteous war like WWII to fight, but you can’t blame us for that.
Every generation has participated in CO2 emissions, the politics that produced the national debt, and the rise of Donald Trump. I don’t see how the boomers are solely to blame for any of those.
Boomers invented the phrase “guilt trip”. Many of us have the good sense and psychological health to avoid falling into that kind of bummer.
Boomers may avoid falling into a "guilt trip" over the rise of White nationalism and their failure to address climate change or the national debt, but I doubt if future generations will feel so nonchalant about it.
Michael S, hasn’t your-and my-generation already been officiously been titled TheGreat Generation? I do prefer the title War Baby, tho.
Somewhere around here, I recall seeing a black and white picture of Baby Malcolm, brandishing a wooden Sword, and wearing my tie dyed, heavily sequined, battle diaper.
I barely missed the boomer generation, thanks to 1940s crude contraception practices.
Refusing to indulge in unjustified levels of negativity towards oneself is not “nonchalant”; it’s an indication of psychological health.
Virtue signaling and self-flagellation are intrinsically unhealthy and unproductive.
The Greatest Generation includes those born between 1900 and 1925. War babies and Baby Boomers are the offspring who benefitted from their sacrifices, but took it for granted and failed to maintain much less improve it.
PS: One of the Boomer peculiarities, especially the so-called conservatives, is their refection of personal responsibility. If they believed in accountability, they too would be calling for Trump to be prosecuted instead of projecting their own hatred onto those who do.
I, like Peter, am worried that indicting Trump will increase the probability of him becoming president again. Preventing a second Trump term is more important to me than “accountability“.
I’m not taking that position to “project hatred”. I don’t understand how someone with normal reading comprehension could draw that conclusion from what I’ve said around here lately on that issue.
"Apparently it is for some people who hate Trump with such a burning intensity that the glare of it blinds them."
June 15, 2023 at 2:43 PM
Don't worry. As the polls show, he's not going to become president whether he's prosecuted or not.
To paraphrase physicist Wolfgang Pauli’s comment to one of his students:
Your logic isn’t right; it isn’t even wrong.
We're in agreement for a change, but you're talking about a quote from your own comments.
No, I’m talking about how there’s no logical connection between what you quoted from me and what we were discussing.
You said those who approve of Trump's indictments, "hate Trump with such a burning intensity that it blinds them." You're projection your own hatred onto others. Most of us just believe in the rule of law.
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