It looks like some kind of debt limit deal will get done.
It turns out that Biden is good at this.
Biden is preserving America's status of a reliable country. Biden is preserving "normal." He isn't publicly celebrating or spiking the football. He is letting Kevin McCarthy do that.
Republicans don't really want to cut spending on anything specific. They love defense spending, Medicare, Social Security, infrastructure spending and nearly everything else that costs money. What they want is to say that they won and owned the libs.
Let them.
The debt deal reflects approximately what would have been worked out in any sort of normal budget appropriation push and pull. The debt deal contains a bit of tinkering around the edges on work requirements for nutrition benefits, student loans, IRS spending, and future caps on spending.
Republicans are going to complain, but they can celebrate that there will be fewer IRS audits of their donors and that they made life a little harder for some undeserving people. Democratic complaints are an essential part of the performance to assure Republicans that they won big. The simple reality is that no one should expect to win big. If Democrats expect New Deal-type increases in the social safety net, they need to elect New Deal-type majorities.
Democrats have a skin-of-the-teeth majority in the Senate, possible because Joe Manchin from a conservative fossil-fuel state is an essential vote. No one should be surprised that there is an earmark pork allowing the go-ahead of the Mountain Valley Pipeline stuck in the proposed deal. Climate activists are outraged. People in West Virginia think otherwise, and -- unfortunately for Democrats -- Joe Manchin is the very best that Democrats can hope for in a West Virginia senator. Half-a-loaf deals are what one gets when one has narrow majorities. Democrats are unhappy. So are Freedom Caucus Republicans.
Biden has demonstrated what he is good at. He worked out a compromise deal. He has the talents of a senator. He let others win on some points and save face. In 2020 Americans voted for normalcy, not high drama, and that is what they got.
The budget deal also defines the two political parties. Democrats are the grown-ups. Republicans are the risk-chaos party. The GOP is split between business people, social conservatives, and populists. Social conservatives in the coalition are more focused on abortion and gender than on debt default, but they are suspicious of secular elites right along with the populists. They are swept along in agreement, led there by Trump. However, big business and Chamber of Commerce Republicans understand that they have chaos agents in their party. In the past the factions could get along, uncomfortably to be sure, but with a common purpose of lower taxes and smaller government. That era is over. Populists like big government. Populists dislike financial elites and secular cultural elites.
The New York Times' David Frum called it win-win for Democrats and Republicans:
McCarthy wanted a win on principle: use of the debt ceiling as a weapon. Beyond that, his caucus could not agree on specific demands.
Biden yielded on principle, which opened the way to prevail on the substance. Each got what he most wanted. Win-win
Not so. This is a loss for Republicans. Financially sophisticated people understand that using the debt ceiling as a weapon is a gun to one's own economy. Republican populism is dangerous. Trump lit a fire and is feeding it. The movement is bigger than Trump now. It isn't the party of Romney, Pence, McConnell, or even Kevin McCarthy. They are the establishment, and they lost control. GOP populism is a bull in a china shop. The business wing of the GOP owns that shop.
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13 comments:
The national debt is already over $31 trillion. That’s a hell of an inheritance we’re leaving our grandchildren. Of course, default would result in downgrading our credit rating which would make it even worse.
Paying our debts is good, but the only thing this year’s debt ceiling drama accomplished that was different is spare us from having to go through it again next year. Sooner or later, we’ll need to actually reduce the national debt. We probably could if our lives depended on it, but it’s our offspring being left with the tab, so fuggedaboutit.
Kudos to the President for getting up to the finish line and preserving so much of his plan; and a truckload of brickbats to the "Democratic" Politicians slinging mud at him for not getting more. Republicans are not the only ones determined to wreak havoc on the Republic.
Republicans represent the rich and entitled and exploit prejudices in order to maintain power. If there's anything revealing about the recent Kabuki in DC it's that Republicans are perfectly content to inflict hardship on lower and middle class citizens and use the chaos and confusion to blame Democrats.
It's no surprise the reached a deal at the last minute, the drama is part of the process. It's also not surprising that the deal is not particularly meaningful, considering the sturm und drang we have endured.
As far as I'm concerned the whole thing is a farce, this deal could have been done on day one.
I'm not celebrating yet, but here's to kicking the can down the road for a few more years.
It's expected to be a bipartisan win. There's an opportunity for 100 Democrats, and 100 Republicans' to vote NO, and the agreement will still pass.
There is something for everyone in this round of the debt-ceiling battles.
$31T rising to ???
It's unknown as there is no debt ceiling for the next 2 years.
That debt is more than $100,000 for each and everyone of us, and that doesn't even factor in the now higher interest rates.
A backhanded compliment for President Biden, which is not surprising.
Joe Biden was in the Senate for years. One of the reasons Obama wanted him as vice president was because of his political skills with the legislature. He also is not a flamethrower.
I will believe it when I see it. However I am not shocked when President Biden gets something done. He is a doer, not a grandstander. He cares more about Americans than "lights, camera, action!" Unfortunately some people can't understand or appreciate that.
As try to understand your long-standing contempt for him, here is my list (in progress): He is an elder statesman who rose through the political ranks (a combination of ageism, ableism and jealousy); he stutters; his only surviving child from his first family has substance use disorder; he did not graduate from an Ivy League college; he is still considered "cool" and good-looking for his age; he is humble, empathetic and not a narcissist.
I predicted this months ago because it happens every time. Big fight. Pointing fingers. Threats. It's all BS. It's money already spent. Like you owe money to Visa that you already spent and now refuse to pay them back. Try that sometime. They HAD to make a deal of some kind so as not to go into default ie. not pay the money we already used. So, the rest is just grandstanding for political points. Next time it will happen again, and again and again with the same result. Both sides will give a little and make a deal. Life goes on.
Dear Anonymous.
It is impolite to posit the motives of other people, especially people you are disagreeing with. Why do I say what I do??? It must be contempt. It must be agism. I must not like his stutter or his family. That must be why.
Better policy is to describe actions, not presume motives. I notice that you read me, pay enough attention to pick up and remember themes over several posts, and you note areas of my criticism. I do think he is and acts too old to be a strong candidate. I do think he has a political problem in Hunter. I do think he is not a strong communicator able to frame issues in a way that moves the thinking of the nation.
Better for you to note that as my actions, not my motives for it. It would be as if I were to posit that your motives for reading me and commenting is that you are still trying to impress your schoolteachers, but have body issues and other insecurities that force to to comment anonymously, which is why you do that. Making such a guess about your motives for commenting anonymously would be hostile and impolite and totally fabricated. It would be an attempt to ignore your observations by belittling you personally. It would be foolish and wrong--but it might be effective in putting ideas into other readers' heads. Go ahead and ignore the commenter because he is still feeling bad about looking like a dope in front of his third grade teacher, plus he feels fat. Pay no attention.
I do what I can to discourage personal comments from one commenter to another, and I fail at it because commenters love to do it. Still, the best rule of thumb is to comment on policies, not on the presumed character and motives of the commenter.
Peter Sage
Thank you, Peter; I really do try to stay away from impugning others thoughts and remarks. Your post today is a good reminder for all who post here.
For the Record, I'm not the one who posted about you today as Anonymous.
This is why I am proud to again support Joe Biden for the presidency.
Am I happy with the apparent results? No, but I'm also not happy that Democrats don't control Congress or the SCOTUS.
The GOPee is bad for this country and for this planet. I hope it goes extinct during my lifetime.
I doubt this is going to be a political win or loss for either side if the deal actually goes through. A month from now we will be on to the next controversy and no one but attentive partisans will remember this one.
If the deal fails and we go into default, I have no idea which side will come out on top.
No one remembers a win in May, either, but a single victory makes a difference in who gets to play for the championship in October.
It's clear the country needs the adult leadership that the Democrats offer.
The GOPee has proven repeatedly that it's not fit to govern.
MT; Win, Lose, or Draw, if a Default on our debt is avoided, the Planet wins, for now.
I admit I was not sure The President was going to pull it off. He hasn't lost all his moves, and McQarthy is once again looking like a Spineless fool.
There's something for everyone in the deal that was cut.
Nice to see a return to an actual bipartisan bill getting approved. Far right and far left are deprived of their demands.
Kudos to both sides resolving this for the short term.
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