Campaign to be Oregon's Governor: 34 choices.

Oregon Update:

19 Republican candidates are still in the race. 

15 Democrats are still in. 

One Un-affiliated is in: Betsy Johnson

The election for Oregon governor simplifies from 35 choices down to three: One Democrat, One Republican, and Betsy Johnson.

Baskin Robins: 31 flavors

Oregon's 19 Republican candidates no doubt consider themselves unique and highly differentiated from one another. I don't see it. Their campaigns are honing details of language and policy, and possibly on the margin it will move a few primary voters to pick one candidate over another. Someone will win. But the weight of being a Republican means a single message will emerge in the general election: Opposition to Oregon's current governor Kate Brown, and general loyalty to the national GOP message of Trump-style populism. Republican candidates either embrace Trump or they offer general agreement with Trump policies. Either they say Trump won the 2020 election in a landslide and the election should be overturned, or they say that a lot of Republican want it overturned and there are always questions to be asked and they don't disagree with people who share Trump's position. Meanwhile, on Oregon issues, they say a Republican governor has a role to play: Be an intractable voice of opposition and resistance to Democrats. Stop Kate Brown and her successor.

Oregon's 15 Democratic candidates boil down to two: Tobias Read and Tina Kotek, the only viable candidates. No doubt they perceive themselves as differentiated, but as with the Republican candidates there is a single message that gets through: Oregon is a blue state and voters here want green, progressive government and that is what they will deliver. Kotek suggests she will deliver current policy more boldly and efficiently because she is experienced and tough. Read says he wants change, but doesn't suggest any disagreement with the status quo. It boils down to tough woman or nice guy. Either way, either candidate will be carrying out approximately the same policies. A Democratic governor would be a force to continue Democratic governance.

Betsy Johnson is a well-funded independent candidate. Her message is moderation. She says she will stop the fighting between the parties. 

I'm running as an independent candidate, loyal only to the people of Oregon. As governor I'm going to take the best ideas from both parties, and force them to work together. I don't worry about making the extremes happy. I guess you could call me an equal-opportunity pisser-offer.

She has been in public office for two decades as a renegade rural and pro-timber Democrat. She is independently wealthy. She has raised some $6 million dollars so far, primarily from wealthy people. I expect her to be criticized for all the money she has raised, but I don't expect it to hurt her. She looks and sounds like a fully-formed politician with a well-established reputation for independence. She is nobody's pawn. 

Democrats fear she will take substantial votes from whoever wins the Democratic primary, and for good reason. She passes the litmus test Republicans fail. She says that of course Biden won. After all, he got the most votes. She won't feel pressure to play along with some national Republican effort to persuade governors and legislators to void electoral votes if a Democrat wins the election. After all, Arizona's Doug Ducey and Georgia's Brian Kemp are Republican pariahs. Liz Cheney is worse, a traitor. She needs armed guards to protect her from attack. Whatever else, Betsy Johnson will tell Trump to bug off.

Johnson will have appeal to voters outside metropolitan Portland. Historically, Oregon's jobs were based on natural resources, primarily forest products and agriculture. Democrats in Oregon chose to please environmentalists, not loggers, farmers, and ranchers. It was a choice, and it has generally worked out for Democrats. There are more people who think of themselves as green than there are loggers. Democrats became identified with people who hike in the forests, not people who work in them. The choice has a price. Democrats lose rural precincts three-to-one, or worse. Many of those people used to be Democrats. 

Here she is. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8taCegF0gc