President Liz Cheney.

Liz Cheney could win the GOP nomination. 

She is going to lose on Wednesday. That is what sets up her big win.

Time and events will be kind to Liz Cheney.

Liz Cheney, photographed from below

I realize this prediction is directly contrary to the opinion of mainstream of political punditry. The media is full of sober explanations that Liz Cheney will go down to defeat, and that this signals that the GOP is firmly the party of Trump. 

I think mainstream opinion is wrong. Here is how she wins.

Step One. Look like a heroic leader with courage and vision. One does this by becoming famous for having convictions under fire, as someone who does not back down or apologize for being who one is or for believing what one believes. 

Have the pundits learned nothing from watching Trump? In a world of weathervane politicians, Trump said things which were unpopular, and which drew sharp criticism, but he didn't back down. He said most Mexican immigrants were criminals and rapists, bringing drugs. People in his own party called that racist. He didn't "clarify" or soften that statement. The meta-message was that Trump was a no-nonsense straight shooter with a warrior mindset. Republicans made inferences about his character. This guy was tough and would not get pushed around. They liked that. 

Step Two. Pick  an uncrowded niche in a big field. Take a position people believe but are afraid to say outright. 

Again, didn't the pundits pay any attention to the nomination process for Republicans in 2016 and Democrats in 2020? Trump was the odd-man-out, being too politically incorrect, but getting his 25 or 30% niche in Iowa and New Hampshire. He had pluralities in a split field. Winning a plurality gave Trump credibility as a winner, and his previously unthinkable and unspeakable attitudes on immigration and race became mainstream.

Washington Post: Slated for fawning media 

Biden was the odd-man-out among Democrats in 2020. While most candidates pushed each other to the left there was one old-school candidate who was clearly in that disfavored moderate lane, Biden. My own view of Biden, having seen him up close in speeches a dozen times, was that he was objectively a very weak candidate. Physically weak; rhetorically weak; un-inspiring; older than his years. But he won, notwithstanding all that. Why and how? In the general election it was because he was not Trump. In the nomination fight he was the candidate that didn't jump into the crowded scrum. He had space.

Step Three. Inspire crowds in Iowa and New Hampshire with your star power and media attention.  She is the media's choice, so she will be a celebrity, and she will get attention and crowds. She has a chance to tell her story with passion and intensity. She will be able to raise money from the usual big money donors uncomfortable with Trump-style populism and the insurrection; she will have resources. 

Useful for her--maybe essential--will be the hecklers in the crowd. Cheney's Town Halls and rallies will have drama. She will look strong; the Trump-supporting hecklers will look disorderly. The hecklers will be bit players in the story that will emerge of Trump supporters as hoodlums and Liz Cheney as the proud opponent of them, standing on principle. These are good optics for her. The contrast with Lindsay Graham will be obvious and noted. Lindsay Graham got heckled in an airport and he switched from Trump-skeptical to fan-boy. He caved, proving himself to be a weakling. Cheney will look good in comparison.

In Iowa and New Hampshire she will have her speech honed. She is already voicing a "vision" talking about this as a turning point in the history of the GOP. Hers will be an optimistic vision. Her Trump-supporting opponents will be stuck trying to explain Trump, explaining that they agree with him, but not really, not his methods. They will say they voted to void the election, but really were just asking questions. They have a messy muddle to explain. She gets to be clear: the attack on the Capitol was wrong and the justification for it was a lie.

Step Four. Don't attach yourself to a losing cause. It is easy to do in politics. Democrats are so reflexively anti-Trump that they found themselves essentially saying borders should be wide open--an idea that offends their own base.  A great many people--74 million of them--like Trump and his policies, something Democrats have a hard time believing. But Republican voters and officeholders over-invested in Trump himself. They wanted a nasty street-fighter, and got one. Trump is a brand in decline now, and that will accelerate. Trump cheated on his taxes, he gamed the government to spend money in his properties, he pilfered his charities, he inspired an insurrection, the sexual lawsuits will proceed. Trump now looks like a sore loser and crazy die-hard, propped up by voters who believe in Trump not wisely, but too well. That will age badly for Cheney's 2024 opponents.

Losing this week sets her up to be the new voice of the GOP. 

She won't communicate disgrace or humiliation. She will be liberated from having to cast party-line votes. She will be a free citizen with a mission, a position of strength. That is a role Trump had in 2015 and 2016. That is what Ronald Reagan did after 1976, when he lost the nomination to Gerald Ford. It is what Lincoln did after losing to Stephen Douglas.

Watch Liz Cheney on Wednesday. The first sign that this prediction is right is how she handles it. If she looks weak, beaten, or discouraged, then I am wrong. But I expect something else: A Liz Cheney that projects certitude, conviction, pride, and a re-affirmed commitment to telling her story about a better, stronger GOP. She will look heroic.

That is what America is looking for. A new hero.  

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