Poor Mike Pence.

     

     "I'm afraid [Trump] is going to run again--and lose."

                 U.S. Rep Ted Lieu, House Impeachment Manager 

"Once you have a large enough block of voters who don’t want free and fair elections, and are openly supportive of overturning the democratic order, then your democracy is in danger. Because what happens the next time a sitting Republican president loses reelection?"

             Jonathan Last, in The Bulwark

Trump isn't the problem. 

The problem is that a majority of GOP voters no longer care very much about the institutions of government.

Former Vice President Mike Pence is the hero of the moment--for Democrats.  He represents stability and respect for the social order. He stood up to Trump. We transferred power. The republic held. Newly uncovered video presented by House Impeachment Managers this week showed Pence was closer to being nabbed by Capitol invaders than was previously understood. They were within sixty feet of him. He apparently carries the backup "nuclear football," so they were close to it, too. Video shows him and small group being rushed down a hallway ahead of invaders. 

The House Managers show Trump targeting Pence in his speech and tweets. We saw the crowd chanting "Hang Mike Pence!"  We heard about Trump's phone call to the new senator Tommy Tuberville, with Trump urging he continue to delay the vote count with apparent lack of interest in the safety of Tuberville or Pence. As I write this, the impeachment hearing is stalled, deciding whether to hear about a similar phone call to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. The message: Trump was concerned about stopping the vote count, not the safety of people in the Capitol.

The Wall Street Journal editorializes that Democrats are praising Mike Pence for now, but it won't persist. Pence is, after all, a super-straightlaced, pious, Christian conservative, both anti-abortion and anti-gay-rights, and for four years an obsequious and loyal supporter of Trump. The Wall Street Journal is correct. I expect Pence to get his reward from history, not Democrats. To Democratic eyes, Pence did everything wrong for four years in supporting Trump and Trump-ism, and then, at the very end, he did one thing right. Pence refused to claim a Vice Presidential power to throw out unwelcome electoral votes. In doing so, he defied Trump--and a great many GOP voters. 

Democrats recognize that Pence didn't choose to be a hero. He refused to be a villain and laughingstock. He did his plain duty. He did what he absolutely had to do. 

The historical meaning of the events of the past three months may be falling into place. The important and lasting message will likely be that Pence will get some thanks from history for doing his duty, but no thanks for it from any source that helps him now. He will net out as a victim. Democrats recognize that Pence disagrees with them on everything except that vice presidents don't get to select the next president. They are in temporary agreement. They are not allies. Trump and Republican voters appear to persist in being unhappy. It is the iron law of politics: Your friends come and go; your enemies stay with you.

The events of the election and impeachments don't change our understanding of Trump. Trump does what Trump does. He casts aside rules and norms to try to get to the result he wants. He opposes institutions that check him: The Congress, the media, the federal bureaucracy, opposition groups, the scientific community, academics. The only institution that checked him was the judiciary; that one he attempted to re-make, not destroy.

The bigger meaning of the past weeks is that a significant majority of Republican voters are OK with overturning the election to keep Trump in office. That message is out there now. No doubt there are some Republicans who are uncomfortable with Trump and his post-election behavior, but most of them are silent. The politically meaningful body, the people who reveal themselves, are going along with Trump on this. This is a shocking realization to Democrats. GOP voters just don't care. They like Trump. That is why most GOP leaders are backing Trump. That is where the votes are.

There are chants to hang Mike Pence, but none to praise him. He isn't a hero to Republicans; he is a turncoat. GOP senators are sending out fundraising emails to the grassroots, in support of Trump. None of them are writing in praise of Pence.