Heads Up: Oregon Gov. Greg Walden

It could happen. 

A moderate-seeming Mr.-Nice-Guy Republican could be elected governor in 2022.

He may not be able to shake off the GOP brand.

Portland summer

Let's start with the grim reality for Democrats. They have been running things in Oregon a long time. Democrats are same-old, same-old. 

There is no clear, obvious Democratic candidate for governor on-deck. Being a conscientious governor at a time of COVID sets a person and party up for failure because no one likes the shutdown-rules. Kate Brown and Democrats suffer from that. At best, people grudgingly accept COVID rules as necessary, even as they second-guess them and are frustrated by them. The people most hurt by the business closures and distancing rules are angry, and there isn't a compensating balance of people who are positively thrilled. Things will be better by November 2022, but there will be a lingering stink of Democrats being kill-joys.

That election will made harder yet by the 2020 Portland summer. Democrats, especially as represented by Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, seemed unable to tell the difference between protest and riot, or if they understood the difference, were unwilling and unable to do anything. Oregon government looked weak and incompetent. It creates the worst of both worlds for the Democratic brand: Tough on honest citizens trying to support their families when it comes to COVID; feckless against Portland anarchists who undermine peaceful protests and vandalize a city.

Yes, the 2022 election could be tough.

A Republican alternative is potentially available: Greg Walden. This blog predicted early and often that Greg Walden would leave the Congress to become a lobbyist. He helped GOP members get elected, but created a monster for himself. The newcomers were Freedom-Caucus-style populists more interested in outrage than governing. As a GOP leader, Walden had the same frustrations as John Boehner and Paul Ryan. Walden left Congress. He is a lobbyist now.

Greg Walden at Town Hall

Maybe not for long. Perhaps I under-estimated his political ambition. He would be swimming in money now, but maybe that isn't where his heart is, not when the governor's office is in reach. Greg Walden has a conservative voting record, but he is not Trump-ish in his language and policy. He is part of the vanishing Main Street-Rotary Club-businessman wing of the GOP, the one that formerly shaped the values and policy of the party. He sounded sincere at Town Meetings when he said he wanted to continue protecting access to health insurance for people with pre-existing conditions, even as his party's policies were threatening them. There was no "replacing Obamacare with something better." Walden understood that, but it appeared that he was sorry about it. He looks and sounds like a sincere, earnest moderate who wants government to work, not a populist who wants to fight culture wars. He is a throw-back to a kinder, gentler Republican style.

Oregonians elected conservative Republican Dennis Richardson as Secretary of State in 2016, in a strong Democratic year. What happened? A liberal Democrat with a public reputation for woke over-reach combined with a Republican candidate who sounded moderate. The "new" Dennis Richardson in 2016 stopped slamming gays and abortion, and began talking about jobs. It worked.

Greg Walden could do the same thing, although he has a problem. Trump did not become "presidential." He governed on behalf of a base that wanted a slash-and-burn warrior. Trump solidified support with the same people who drove Walden, Boehner, and Ryan crazy. It is now their party. They are cleaning out the heretics in Orlando, Florida right now. Walden hasn't spoken out against them. He is threading the GOP needle of a GOP Civil War by being silent as Trump wins handily. It is the strategy that makes sense for a lobbyist who wants access to Republicans, but not one who wants to win a statewide race in Oregon.

I expect him to waltz to an easy win in the GOP primary if he files for governor. He has money and credibility within the GOP. But then, there he would be, the candidate acceptable to the GOP. He would carry the brand, with all the benefit for solidifying 40% of the Oregon vote, but turning off about 60% of it. The Trump party of Oregon is as incautious in messaging and immoderate in policy as the people who drove Walden crazy as a party leader. The GOP appears to have come out of the 2020 election determined to be more than ever the party of outrage. 

The biggest thing that would keep Walden from being elected Oregon's next governor is that the Republican Party has sabotaged its moderates.