Walden's Hot Potato

The GOP fought to end the ACA. Walden led that fight. 

A Texas judge called the ACA unconstitutional. Walden won. Oh-oh. 

Prediction: Walden will leave Congress soon.

Greg Walden had a problem in this election. He had to tap-dance through his hypocrisy on the ACA. He tried to kill it, but said he actually liked what it did. 

Now a judge, acting on a lawsuit by GOP state Attorneys General, called the whole law unconstitutional.

Click: But he says he actually favors the opposite.

Walden won re-election in 2018, protected by having a deeply Republican district. He could tough it out, and coast to re-election on his huge advertising budget and the editorial support of newspapers. 

Walden, as chair of a powerful committee, led the GOP in its fight against "Obamacare." It was an awkward role. He profited by his political message of opposition to anything named Obamacare. Yet the law under its formal name, The Affordable Care Act, gave his District three big things its citizens needed and liked: 

   

***Medicaid access to fully 20% of the people in his District, the working poor.

   

***Assurance that people with pre-existing conditions could get health insurance.

   

***It saved the rural hospitals in his District from bleeding money from uncollectible medical care for people without insurance.

Click: Scrambling to un-do the effort to end the ACA

Over the course of 2017 and 2018 those provisions of the law became popular. How did Walden (and other Republicans nationwide) deal with the changed situation? They began assuring people that actually they supported the important provisions of the law they tried to kill.

Walden survived the tap dance. Some 40 GOP members in swing districts did not. 

Walden was helped by the fact that the ACA survived. He didn't have to live with the consequences of killing the ACA. A hundred thousand residents in his District did not lose health care. The financial security of people with pre-existing conditions was protected. Hospitals did not close.

Now a Texas court said that the provision that assured access to pre-existing conditions was unconstitutional, so the whole law is unconstitutional.  It will get appealed, of course. But the GOP got the Supreme Court it wanted, one that might find a legal basis for ending the ACA. 

The ACA could actually go away. Victory for the GOP? No.

It is a catastrophe for the GOP.

From the Courthouse to Walden's office.

It keeps alive the GOP efforts to kill provisions that are now popular. The lawsuit was brought by the GOP and their fingerprints are all over this. If the ACA ends, it will be because the GOP finally killed it. 

The music has stopped and Walden cannot tap dance any more.

A month ago I predicted that Greg Walden will leave Congress soon. He will resign, possibly mid-term, but in any case not run for re-election, so he can fulfill his true calling, an industry lobbyist. His position on health care is un-tenable, he now has to hold invitation-only events to avoid protests, and staying in office requires endless tiresome cross-country travel. 

He has got to be sick of trying to explain that he actually loves the health care provisions he tried to kill, especially if he has to live with the consequences of its demise, and that is a real possibility.

Walden is going to skedaddle.