Things look bad for Donald Trump just now. It may not matter. The states that like him will likely stick with him.
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He has a strategy to win the Electoral College.
Democrats may be looking at the wrong thing. Trump's overall popularity doesn't matter much. What matters is whether states representing 270 electoral votes will support him. He has a strategy.
1. The sleaze factor has long been taken for granted. Everyone already knows Trump is a narcissist who cheats and lies. His supporters don’t think it is dispositive.
2. Democrats focus on the wrong thing. The Mueller findings, bad as they are, are a distraction that hurts Democrats more than Trump, because it keeps Democrats from talking about their winning messages: jobs and health care. Trump will talk about jobs, to distract attention from his sleaze.
3. Trump holds the South, like always. Judicial appointments win Trump southern red states, where the big issue is cultural nationalism, i.e. religion and race. Race is addressed in the code of resistance to immigration.
4. Trump holds the rural heartland states, like always. Those states are are Republican. Democrats ooze liberal urbanity in policy and tone and will never nominate a candidate who looks like a John Tester.
5. Trump holds the Upper Midwest, like in 2016, thanks to tariffs. Trump’s tariffs may be generally disruptive to the economy, but the pain is diffuse, and the benefit is targeted to help Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump has a story to tell them, that he is on their side, even at the expense of other regions.
Result: He can win every state he won in 2016, including Florida (c.f. the election of Scott) and Texas (c.f. the election of Cruz.)
What could stop him? A big recession. One is overdue. It's the economy, stupid.
4 comments:
I've noted before that there is a sad irony that the economy that Obama nursed to health (via a $1B infusion) is now the lever that gives Trumplicans credibility in the heartland. It should be said however that the cult never truly admitted that GOP laissez faire, indeed the same criminality that now resides in the White House, caused the recession that made them desperate and vulnerable to Regressive hyperbole and propaganda. This si testimony to how the power of bigotry can overwhelm economic reality.
To address your specific points:
1.The sleaze factor...I agree that supporters overlook it, even find it perversely charming. However, I do think that in the D.C. environment it is wearing thin. The midterm losses have given Republicans some cover to back away from Trump.
2. Democrats focus on the wrong thing....Here I disagree. The Mueller investigation was instituted by Republicans, and is being kept alive and ongoing by same. It is not ending anytime soon. They will keep it going in hopes of uncovering a mea culpa and may even concede the 2020 election. Democrats have wisely aligned themselves with this de facto bipartisan effort. Republicans are fine with Dems calling them "enabling", but in fact they are sharpening their knives. The goal is to completely isolate Trump and shift power back to the party. The real danger Democrats face is Bernie.
3. Trump holds the South...Yes, but so will ANY Regressive/Republican who panders to their "culture war" nonsense...and they all do. It's almost a guarantee that some Republican (Cruz?) will challenge him and I'm not so sure Trump will be as successful negating them now that they are on to his tricks.
4. Trump holds the rural heartland states...See 3 above. All I would add is that the margins were narrow in 2016 mostly due to the Bernie effect.
5. Trump holds the Upper Midwest...Post midterm polling I've seen indicates that Trump trails most Democrat potential candidates in 2020. If Bernie gets in line (big if) and Dems continue to boost turnout, the midterm gains will hold provide a solid base for a Democratic win, but they better get behind her fast or the Democratic primary will be a circus.
Come on Democrats, let's be positive and look for a winner. I hope my stock broker is not rooting for your recession.
Bill Haberlach
I sincerely hope that GOP laissez faire is not replaced with Dem laissez faire...which has been the case since 1993.
The National Popular Vote bill is 64% of the way to guaranteeing the majority of Electoral College votes and the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country, by changing state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), without changing anything in the Constitution, using the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes.
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