The Money Trail in the Medford-Ashland state senate race

The two candidates are raising money exactly as expected. That may be the problem.

Can Jeff Golden raise enough to be competitive?

Can Jessica Gomez demonstrate she is free of the influence of her donors and predecessor?

Oregon voters can see where the money comes and goes in campaigns by going to the OreStar system of the Oregon Secretary of State. Click

What happened in the two campaigns since the May 15 primary?


Jessica Gomez demonstrates she has the financial support of powerful people and PACs in the Republican establishment. She has contributions in big chunks from the "usual suspects" in Republican fundraising. Jeff Golden has raised money the way he has always raised it, in smaller amounts from individuals, mostly local, and with a few out of state donation from family and friends.

No surprise.

The OreStar report on Gomez shows she gets major support from the State Republican Party, the Leadership PAC. She also gets money from the Oregon Business and Industry PAC ($25,000), the Associated General Contractors PAC ($10,000), Rogue Waste and affiliated companies, Pacificorp, Pharma PAC, bankers, and credit unions.

The noteworthy personal contributions are from Alan DeBoer, the incumbent state senator, who had given $36,000 prior to the primary election. The No Supermajorities PAC, for which Alan DeBoer is a contributor and fundraiser, made a $20,600 contribution to her since the primary, and he himself gave an additional $9,570 directly and from his campaign. The Orestar report shows that Sid and Karen DeBoer gave a total of $50,000 in this period, adding to what Sid DeBoer had given in the primary.

A closer look at Jeff Golden shows money given by some 67 contributions from individuals, primarily in the amounts of $250, $500, and $1,000. There is a small cluster of attorneys with offices upstate, but the bulk of his contributions are from southern Oregon professionals. Click There are no PAC contributions, nor is there money from the Democratic state party fund equivalent to the Republican Leadership PAC. The net result is that Golden has raised less money overall, and indeed less than the amount given to Gomez by the DeBoer family alone, 

Golden's vulnerability is that he may well be badly outspent. He is operating on a comparative shoestring, raising money one "ask" at a time. It takes money to "boost" Facebook posts and generally to get a message out. He could be up against a million dollar tidal wave of upstate money, some of which may be used to try to define him as a kook. Or communist. Or hippy. Or something. Polls and surveys are taking place, testing negative messages. Golden will have fewer resources to respond.

Gomez's vulnerability is in whether she looks independent of her donors. The associations that elevated her may be what simultaneously hurts her. She appears to be a hand picked successor to a popular incumbent, Alan DeBoer, and the support of the DeBoer family is there for all to see. Senator DeBoer's endorsement is prominent in her Facebook and web page. The DeBoers are widely respected. They have been public benefactors for decades. Their endorsements are a powerful advantage. Right?

https://jessicafororegon.com/supporters/

Maybe. But there may be backlash.

Her primary election victory was shockingly narrow against  Curt Ankerberg, who got 48% of the vote. He was outspent thirty to one, and he endured big news stories about his trouble with tax authorities, which he explained as being caused by mental incapacity. That should have sealed it for her, but did not.  I interpret the election result as being significant GOP voter discomfort either with Gomez, or with the process by which she was escorted into the nomination. She did not emerge organically from a Republican field. She carries the weight of inheritance, of having been sponsored. The general election was an opportunity to break free of that weight, but by accepting the new round of support from the DeBoer family she did the opposite. 

This may hurt her more than help her.

I have difficulty understanding the Republican voter in this Era of Trump, so possibly her weak showing in the primary was due to something other than a push back against dynastic inheritance. Has Trump made being Latina a disadvantage? Is it her gender?  Was she perceived as "not Republican enough?" I don't know.

Still, Jessica Gomez has a job to do common to every candidate who emerges from under the wing of a predecessor--to demonstrate that he or she is her own person. Congressional aides, who leave to run for office on their own need visibly to break free, as do Vice Presidents running to succeed a president. The candidate needs to demonstrate that he or she is a principal, not an agent or puppet or place holder. Voters want to know they are electing Jessica Gomez, not a stand in.

Her conspicuous campaign contributions from the DeBoer extended family makes this task harder for herself.