Poll reveals new anti-abortion message

It is clever and it might well work.

Measure 106 doesn't ban abortion. It just says the state won't pay for it.  An opinion survey tested out several "yes on 106" messages. 

There is a theme to them: those people are squandering your money.

My phone rang and I answered. It was a poll on Oregon Measure 106.

The poll questions were attempts to fine tune the message to secure a "yes" vote. The format of the poll was to make statements in support of the measure and then ask if the question made me much more likely to vote yes, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or not at all more likely, plus whether I simply disbelieved the statement.

They wanted to know what messages resonated.

Over 100,000 signatures.

It is interesting for what it did not test. It didn't ask when I thought life began, if I knew when there was a fetal heartbeat, or anything about the pro-or-con on abortion. The poll tested attitudes toward taxes and spending priorities.

Examples: 

"It is wrong for Oregonians' hard earned tax dollars to pay for elective abortions by women who just walk into a clinic and get that procedure on demand." Does that statement make you much more likely to vote yes, somewhat more likely, etc.

"Women, including people here illegally, can get repeated abortions at taxpayer expense, using abortion as a form of birth control." Does that statement make you more likely, etc.

"Oregon priorities should be schools, veterans, and the opioid epidemic, not money for free abortions on demand."  Does that statement make you more likely, etc.

"There is no restrictions on the number of abortions a woman can have, and under current state law there is no co-pay." Does that statement make you more likely, etc.

"Oregon's policy of free abortions on demand mean Oregon taxpayers paid 23 million dollars for abortions in the past fourteen years, an extravagance we cannot afford."  Does that statement make you more likely, etc.

"Oregon's policy of free abortions on demand by any woman who wants one is an outlier policy among the 50 states, with the most extremely liberal policy in the nation. Oregon should return to the mainstream of states." Does that statement make you more likely, etc.

Although the text of the ballot measure will force a change in the health insurance plans for tens of thousands of public employees--a benefit earned and negotiated by middle class employee/taxpayers--none of the questions mentioned this element. The test messages focused on payments for marginalized groups: the poor, people on the Oregon Health Plan, immigrants.  "Other" people. 

The test questions attributed motives and attitudes of entitlement, extravagance, contraceptive carelessness. Women flounce into abortion clinics and spend your tax money on a whim. Don't you resent them getting your money?

Explanatory Statement

Will this work? 

The "yes" campaign is creating a two-part coalition, opponents of abortion per se and people suspicious and resentful of tax money spent on others. The campaign message reverses the usual polarity of the abortion debate from the intrusive hand of government telling women what to do, into the abortion benefit being the intrusive hand, grasping for an illegitimate extravagant handout. Measure 106 supporters hijacked the abortion rights message.

Abortion rights are popular. Taxes are not. 

Yes, this could pass.

[Note: upcoming blog posts will report on the positions various state and local candidates have taken on this issue.]