It's a Beauty Contest, Stupid

Donald Trump is a pro at Elimination Reality TV.  

The hardest things to notice are the things right in front of you.  The consequences of a steam engine in the late 18th century or reliable contraception in the 1960s were gigantic, but weren't apparent until people could look back.   

Only one will survive

I thought I was looking up close at an election, a contest of policy and ideas between coalitions of people with differing values and economic interests.   The ground has changed out from under us.  We are watching reality television, a special form of The Apprentice or a Miss Universe Beauty pageant or a professional wrestling event.  Or The Hunger Games: Election 2016.

Hillary has a lifetime of experience doing the work (playing the game) of policy and politics that is no longer played in a presidential campaign.   Donald Trump has the lifetime of experience in reality elimination contests.  He owns one.  He produces and stars in another one.   Donald Trump is the pro here.

My Virginia reader put it bluntly:  

"I think you're missing the point.  This is a beauty contest, not who's the best qualified.  It's not who do you like?  It's who do you like the least.  Hilliary is liked the least.  That's why she will lose.  It's anybody but her.  Nobody likes her.  So, how does she win?

I think I told you once before.  A friend of mine was working in the Arkansas state house when Bill was governor.  He said everybody liked Bill.  Hilliary was around all the time.  They thought she was a bitch.  That's the way she comes across and it will never leave her."

Jake Tapper called it "false"

The evolution of journalism from 'responsible fair-minded referee" into an entertainment division of a publicly traded corporation means that interventions like this one from CNN's Jake Tapper are rare, and in any case have a small audience and diminished credibility with the audience they do have.  Tapper reports that Trump is raising a thoroughly disproved allegation of murder, and doing so while saying he is not doing so.  Tapper said, "Journalists are in the unhappy predicament of trying to decide whether and how to cover false allegations raised by a candidate for president."   

He answers this by covering it and reporting that the allegations are, simply, factually false.   Click Here: Short Tapper Video

This is the exception that deceives.  Instances like that sustain the illusion that we are still playing by the old rules of politics and that a campaign is about issues and policies, when in fact the Trump campaign with its vague and changing policies have demonstrated that it is not about policy at all.   The GOP has made a dramatic turn in apparent policy on taxes, regulation, small government, foreign policy, trade, and immigration and some 90% of GOP voters, incumbent politicians, and donors have gone along.   The philosophy and values of Reagan, Bush1, Dole, Bush2, McCain, Romney:  never mind!   

The election is about surviving in a hostile environment.  Donald Trump is a hitter, an attacker.  He is wild and crazy and interesting.   

Surviver Naked and Afraid.    Hard for CSPAN to compete

Hillary is playing by the old rules, and news pundits and observers like me who are stuck in the past are part of the problem.   We have not understood that the game has changed.   

The rules of government may be intact.   There will still be a House and Senate and filibuster rules and a Supreme Court and the structure of government and the gridlock of checks and balances will likely be the same.   The 2016 campaign is a TV game show, covered this way by the media and experienced this way by the public.  Hillary thinks it is still a CSPAN show.

Trump did not defeat his opponents in the GOP primary with better and different ideas and policies.  His GOP opponents adopted policies generally similar to his.  He defeated them with the techniques of an elimination reality TV: by being interesting, by being outrageous, with showmanship, with insults.   

Now, as he turns to Hillary, he is drowning out her efforts to stay on message and to discuss policies.   Policies are boring.  Tax policy is less interesting that accusations of rape.   It is hard to pay attention to student loan rate caps when Hillary is being accused of murder.   Trump says that Vince Foster's suicide was "fishy" and maybe Hillary murdered him.  Trump says Bill Clinton is a sex abuser and Hillary an enabler. 

Click here for Trump Instagram video    

My Virginia reader suggested that Joe Biden would be a better choice for Democrats than would be Hillary.  Biden is more natural and warm, doesn't have the burden of Clinton fatigue, and he has better rapport with working class Democrats.   But the evolution of politics as entertainment--a dystopian version of the Hunger Games, only now and for real, not in the future--makes Biden a look backward instead of a look forward.   One surviving hero, 20 vanquished dead.  It describes the 2016 election, in progress.

Hunger Games

Under the new rules of elections Democrats in Philadelphia should nominate their own media superstar billionaire, Oprah Winfrey.   The matchup addresses the personality symbolism of the two parties.   

The Republicans put up a white male nativist businessman-showman who specializes in a kind of brute force domination and persuasion through exposing weak points.   Trump is interesting but not very likable.    Democrats put up a black female businesswoman-showman whose power consists of empathy, generosity, and persuasion through engagement.  Oprah is interesting and likable.