Hillary Shoots Herself

Hillary's Campaign Does Not Understand Trump. 

Hillary Clinton is in the middle of a fight and doesn't know what to do.   There is a history of this among Democratic candidates.   Michael Dukakis and John Kerry didn't know what to do either.

Worse than weak.  Foolish.

Back in 1988 George H W Bush's campaign was calling Michael Dukakis a miserable weakling, such a soft hearted marshmallow that he looked like Rocky the Squirrel wearing a tank helmut, that he would let murderers out of prison to rape and kill, that he would let the Soviets push him around.  On his own he volunteered that he would keep his head if his wife Kitty were raped and murdered.      Dukakis' response was to whine and run ads about how mean spirited was the Republican attack.   In schoolyard terms: a bully was picking on him and he called for help from the good classmates and teachers.    Result:  he confirmed the Republican charge by looking weak.   And lost.

Turning a war record into a question of corruption

Back in 2004 John Kerry, a Vietnam War Bronze Star and Silver Star medal winner wounded by enemy fire, faced George W Bush who spent the war years practicing flying jets in Alabama.  Using the original "Swift Boat" attack technique, Kerry was attacked for being a combat fraud, his medals for bravery and Purple Hearts scoffed at.   Kerry responded by whining that no one could possibly believe such lies and ran ads complaining.   In schoolyard terms: a bully was picking on him calling him a fake hero and he called for help from the good classmates and teachers.  Result: he confirmed the Republican charge by looking weak.  And lost.

Now it is Hillary's turn to be in a fight.  Does she know what to do in a fight?  So far her campaign is hurting her, not helping her.   Her new ad is another iteration of this.

The Trump brand is that he has authentic common sense rapport with the American people who are worried about dangerous foreigners some of whom want to kill us (Muslims, Mexican rapists) and others who want to take our jobs away (non-raping Mexicans, plus workers in Japan and China).   The Trump brand is plain talk, common sense, straight from the gut thinking.    Trump contrasts himself with a caricature of Hillary:  "Crooked Hillary" is a politically correct, elite-approved, multicultural person who is part of the complex system that doesn't work for the average American.   Trump accuses her of being compromised.   She is incapacitated by her globalist orientation.  He turns her strength (deep experience) and describes it as corruption and weakness.

So what is Hillary's campaign doing?   She is confirming Trump's view of things.   The ad is a form of campaign suicide.    Watch this ad by Hillary:

https://www.facebook.com/drumblog/videos/1301893479840401/

The ad confirms the Trump frame of the choice between them.    The ad shows Trump being a plain spoken bully, clear in what he is fighting against: Mexican rapists, Muslim terror, foreign prisoners with secrets, criminals, non-English speakers who have come to America illegally, and more.

The premise and expectation from the Hillary Clinton campaign is that American should be shocked and dismayed by watching in the ad where Trump is willing to use force so openly.   But Trump is using the force openly against non-Americans, on "bad guys", on criminals, rapists, interlopers, terrorists, and foreigners.   And the ad shows him fighting on behalf of a simple assertion of presumed American interests: waterboarding-and-more is fine, don't take nuclear weapons off the table, bomb the s--- out of our enemies.  The ad shows Trump saying things that a great many Americans support--using strong force--in a clear-eyed divide between us and them, the good guys versus the bad guys.   That is Trump's very brand!   A lot of Americans will like what they see.

American elect Army generals to the presidency.

Are these policies really in America's long term interests?   Torture, carpet bombing, religious tests for entry to America, targeted assassinations of families.  American elite opinion, both Democratic and Republican, says no.   They are unconstitutional, the violate American and international standards, and the policies would backfire.   But the ad doesn't make that point, and in any case Trump's brand is that elite opinion is untrustworthy because it sacrifices American interests to global interests.   Trump's clear-eyed gut reaction is in sync with the gut reaction of aa broad swath of Americans.   Trump fights for his team: America first and only.

Hillary, by implication from her own ad, has an internationalist, multicultural, rule-based orientation.  She wants the approval of international law, not the approval of real live struggling native born law abiding American who want to work and protect their families.   She wants to defend the rights of criminals, she is concerned about "presumption of innocence", she wants to take our weapons of waterboarding and bombing and the firewall of nuclear weapons away.  She was a diplomat, thinking of the UN and the interests of other countries and whatever it is the Clinton Foundation does, unlike Trump, who thinks of America First.

Hillary thinks Americans are shocked by wanting to exclude Muslims and by wanting to bomb the s--- out of someone--anyone--in the Middle East.   A great many are not.   They want a strong leader who will cut through the Gordian Knot of Congressional gridlock and endless war.  Trump says he can do this.  

Trump should pay to run the ad. Hillary should take it down.  

Like Dukakis and Kerry before her, her own ads confirm the opponent's frame of the election.  Trump accuses her of being tied into a global system of rules, trade, monetary systems, and multinational diplomacy that causes her to think internationally instead of being a forthright fighter for America.

Hillary could easily lose this election.

A somewhat different ad could have switched the frame, showing Hillary cautious and respected while Trump is dangerously incautious, a bull in a china shop.   That would be a frame that would help Hillary.  But that's not what they did.