"Goon Squad." Trump tactic backfires.

Trump was too brazen. He forgot to be hypocritical.

     "I think it's an abuse of DHS. I mean really the president is trying to use DHS as his goon squad. That's really what's going on here."

             John Sandweg, former acting director of ICE

Trump's popularity is in a low spot. Trump needs to change the subject from the economy and the virus to a better one, one of urban anarchy and violence by Biden supporters out to destroy American heritage and values. Trump's story is secure within the media cocoon of Fox, talk radio, and Republican social media: Antifa is coming!  However, a different story is circulated everywhere outside that bubble.

Federal peacekeepers

It might have worked for Trump. He is running campaign ads premised on the story, so he still has hopes for it. Every media outlet looks for variety away from hospitals and graphs of case counts, and nurses saying they are exhausted. It is such a downer, and the story is essentially unchanged for four months. The protests were new, and scenes of street conflict are exactly what Breaking News! is designed for. Rowdy youth in Portland, Oregon, some of them with a political agenda associated with anti-fascism, were the perfect opponent for Trump. There are the exciting visuals with graffiti, people moving in the dark, a woman getting naked, a mayor being gassed and images of federal officers in tactical gear, looking menacing and ready for house to house urban warfare.

The problem for Trump is that a counter-story is too easy to observe and report. The Department of Homeland Security officers came in and operated exactly as Trump wanted--hard, brutal, dominating. That is what he told state Governors on the conference call and the public at Mount Rushmore: we need decisive force. Trump misread how it would look. People see federal officers dressed like this, firing tear gas and rubber bullets and they are interpreted as foreign aggressors.

The news stories and opinion pages from mainstream media are near universal in saying the federal officers were heavy handed, improper in summary arrests and releases, overly militaristic, and provocative. Trump made that interpretation easy by saying the quiet part out loud. He said he wanted to target Democratic cities. Of course it was political theater to create a story line and images for campaign ads. Trump was too brazen. He forgot the necessary fig leaves of hypocrisy. 

That is a problem. To be credible as a law-and-order president one needs to look like one seeks law and order.

People on the ground in Portland share with me their own observations. One of them is a couple in their early 40's, both with professional jobs, one a teacher, one a mechanical engineer, Greg and Katherine, who feel vulnerable enough in their careers to want to stay anonymous. They live in Portland and have children in Portland schools.  

Comment from two Gen X observers:

"The protesters aren’t the problem. It is the federal officers. They are making the situation much worse.

I was in downtown Portland a few days ago. It was very peaceful during the day. A few people were roaming around and there were even fewer homeless people about. The biggest difference I saw was boarded up windows and graffiti around the federal courthouse.

The feds are here to protect the building. It is concrete. That is not going to burn. Graffiti can be painted over. The feds are creating far more problems by being here. Taking away people’s civil rights is a far greater crime than graffiti.

The truth still remains: black and brown people are being disproportionately hurt and killed by law enforcement. As a result of the killing of George Floyd, a sense of urgency has been ignited to change systemic racism, for real.

Trump ignores this. He’s made it about “law and order”. He just wants the sound bites and theater for his election campaign. A city “out of control”, or rather just the graffiti, is just an excuse.  He doesn’t care about black and brown people or the people of Portland.

I have friends who went down to protest and joined the Wall of Moms. While they were there, one friend said it was scary because the feds were dressed for war and had their long arms. In the protest crowd, two young men who looked about 20 years old, were trying to get through to provoke the feds. The moms realized if those kids got through, then the feds might respond in force and thing would get ugly. This is when, to prevent the escalation, the moms linked arms together and created a wall to keep separate the protesters and the officers.

The vast majority of the protests are peaceful. The few provocateurs and the feds are riling things up and escalating the situation, and diverting the conversation from the original message."

A lot of these moms are suburban SW Portland mothers (read: the more affluent side of town) are joining together to fight what they see as injustice, both for black and brown people, and because the feds are in town stamping on people’s rights. 

No mask? No service. Please leave now.

     "We encourage customers who are prevented from wearing a mask due to a health consideration to reconsider travel."

                Delta Airlines

The customer is not always right.  Sometimes they scare off other customers.

A guest post today from a man trying to stay alive in a pandemic.


Calling BS on mask scofflaws. The airlines dealt with a problem. Crowded airplanes spread an airborne virus. Everyone wearing a good mask would make everyone safer, which would mean more passengers would be willing to fly. Some customers were refusing a mask and claiming a medical exemption. United and Delta are cracking down with stringent enforcement of a new policy that makes customers claiming a medical exemption jump through hoops that take an hour and involve a consultation with a medical professional. The process takes an hour. People miss planes.

Prior to this it was the honor system. Airline crews were instructed not to confront passengers who refused to wear masks claiming an excuse. This policy created its own problem; fellow passengers protested being seated near passengers without masks. Customers applauded when crews forced scofflaws to leave the plane.

We accept the implicit authority of people in charge of airplanes and ships, and TSA has conditioned Americans to perceive fellow passengers as potential threats. A mask-less passenger is statistically a far greater risk to others than that they are planning a terrorist takeover of the plane. A virus spreader might infect dozens of passengers and and kill one  or more of them. 

Yet many Americans consider mask wearing an infringement of their freedom and won't do it. President Trump and Republican governors in Florida and Georgia say explicitly that wearing a mask in public is an affront to freedom. Governments might recommend masks, but shouldn't require them.

Airlines can do what retail stores cannot. Stores essentially work on the honor system. Many states currently require mask-wearing in public, but few stores are set up to do actual enforcement, both at entry and while customers wander the store. 

That puts the onus onto customers. They have two tools. One is confronting and shaming mask scofflaws. My own experience, and the experience of Art Baden, the author of the Guest Post below, is not good. Mask scofflaws feel entitled, and are not shamed into compliance by the comments of a fellow customer.

If enforcement is going to happen it will require the store to do it, and I expect they will only accept this burden for the same reason that airlines did: because they will lose business from cautious customers if they do not.  

What to do? Complain to the scofflaw, then tell the store manager you need to shop elsewhere. And tell your friends.

Art Baden is not trying to be a cop. He is trying to stay alive. He is in his mid 60's and has had pneumonia three times in the past. If he were to catch the virus and be hospitalized and die, he would be reported to have two "co-morbidities," age and prior lung condition, and some people would consider his death unsurprising, somehow his fault and not that of the virus. Baden is a retired insurance broker, living in Ashland, Oregon, a pleasant, upscale college town. Market of Choice is a supermarket with a rich selection of organic foods, more in the style of a Whole Foods market than a Safeway or Publix.

Guest Post by Art Baden

Art Baden

So I was in Market of Choice grocery store last night here in Ashland around 8 p.m. and was so pleased that everyone I saw was wearing a mask, pursuant to the sign on the door - No Mask No Entry.

Except for one seemingly healthy and able young man in his early 20’s shopping mask-less in the store.

He got in the checkout line behind me, so I asked the wonderful young woman checking me out “Isn’t everyone supposed to be masked?” She rolled her eyes and shrugged her shoulders, as if to say “I know, but what can I do.”  I couldn’t see a store manager around, so I walked up to the young man and said “you know you are supposed to be wearing a mask, do you have a mask?” He replied ”I have a medical condition.”  I asked, “I’m curious, what sort of medical condition prevents you from wearing a mask?”  He replied “I’m not required to tell you, but wearing a mask gives me anxiety.”

I told him “ Seeing you in here not wearing a mask gives ME anxiety, why don’t you deal with your anxiety?”  He replied, “Why don’t you deal with your rudeness.”

In retrospect I wish I had been more artful in my approach, and used my compassionate communications skills, and invited him to consider that he could be an asymptomatic spreader of the contagious virus, or invited him to consider  how anxious he’d be in an ICU bed with a tube down his throat on a ventilator, but alas, I wasn’t thinking fast enough. 

Folks, there are very effective therapeutic preventative medications that treat anxiety.  They are covered by Health insurance or Medicaid, for those with lesser means.   There are no such meds available for COVID-19.

This young man’s behavior brings to the fore the dynamic tension in a democracy between the rights of the individual and the protection of society as a whole. But in the case of a global pandemic, the calculus seems pretty clear:  People don’t end up in an ICU with anxiety.  If someone is that anxious, see a medical provider and get meds, or use the shopping services at the Food Coop or other groceries and stay home.  

It was difficult for me to confront this young man.  Who wants to create a scene, or potentially trigger another person?  I sure didn’t, but as no one in authority would, and none of the younger hale and hardy patrons stepped up, it was this slight of build 67 year old man who did. . I’m glad I did, and I hope others will do so as well. 

If this young man needs to be shamed into wearing a mask to protect himself and others, so be it.

I’ve had 3 family members lucky enough to survive this scourge.  I know it’s real.

Silence is complicity.  If you see something, say something. 

Trump to Ghislaine: Don't Squeal.

Question: Ghislaine Maxwell is in prison and she's going to turn in powerful people. How do you see that working out?

Trump answer: "I just wish her well, frankly. . . . I wish her well, whatever it is."

Trump sent a very public message to Ghislaine Maxwell, the special friend of Jeffrey Epstein, who knows Epstein's secrets, and Trump's: Don't squeal on me. I've got your back.

Click. One minute of party scene, Trump and Epstein

There are lots of photos of Trump partying with Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. Trump was a Playboy swinger bachelor on the prowl. He was rich, good looking, and liked the company of beautiful women. It is his brand. It was all over the tabloids. This included time with Jeffrey Epstein, who enjoyed the company of women "on the younger side," as Trump put it.

Click on the video. It shows Trump and Epstein in party mode. Ask yourself: are these men there to exercise restraint and discretion or are they there to have some fun?

We will never know what Ghislaine Maxwell could say about Trump's behavior at Jeffrey's parties, because Trump made only one piece of news at his Corona virus task force briefing yesterday. He was seen sending a message.

It came in his answer to a question from a very supportive news source, the New York Post. The question had the surface appearance of a "got cha" but it was in fact a very friendly one. The questioner mentioned the names of Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton, and then asked Trump what he thought.

Trump said he wished Ghislaine well. 

It is the way Trump has developed as president to do dangerously improper things. Do them openly. In the past Trump had Roy Cohn and then Michael Cohen to fix things quietly. Threaten people with lawsuits. Pay off porn stars. Trump wouldn't need to spell it out ("Tell her attorneys I will pardon her if she stays totally mum.") but even a coded and vague message puts Trump at risk if done quietly because the various people along the chain of communication have a secret to tell, that Trump was witness tampering, a crime.

It is better to do witness tampering right in the open on TV, with such apparent lack of guile or guilt that the act cannot be thought wrong. If you openly tell a reporter on camera that you fired an FBI director to stop an investigation of your alleged criminal acts, then it must be OK. If you attempt a deal with a Ukrainian president, say that it was a perfect phone call. Things only look wrong if one appears to hide them. 

Trump handled the question exactly in the manner that has proven to work for him.  Even though he and his children attack Democrats for being seen in Epstein's presence, Trump openly and apparently guiltlessly acknowledges that of course he knows Ghislaine Maxwell. After all, they are neighbors. But he knows nothing, why would he? They are just casual neighbors. Nothing to be embarrassed about.

Ghislaine, Naomi Campbell, Trump, and Melania

Trump has earned his credibility as a friend to the 100% loyal, and a merciless enemy of the disloyal. Look at poor Jeff Sessions.  Look at Michael Cohen, back in prison.  

Meanwhile, Roger Stone is free, and that was after being prosecuted by the Justice Department and found guilty on multiple counts by a jury. Paul Manafort admitted guilt for tax and bank fraud and was sentenced to 7 1/2 years. The Justice Department is working to reverse the conviction and he is out free right now.  Trump openly talks about pardoning him.

Who knows what happened with Jeffrey Epstein? He was in federal custody after numerous charges of sex trafficking and sex with underage girls. He was the highest profile prisoner in America, and on suicide watch. Somehow the two guards assigned to watch him neglected to do so, there were no video cameras, and he died, somehow, presumably of suicide, before he could testify. All this in a prison in a department headed by A.G. Bill Barr. Dead men tell no tales.

Here is a clip of Trump's full response to the question, at minute 20 in the briefing: Click here

This isn't hard and it isn't mysterious. Trump was talking to her attorneys: Stay alive, Ghislaine. And keep your mouth shut. I take care of my friends.

Portland "Moms" save the day.

Donald Trump is back at it as the executive producer and star of a reality TV show. 

Last time it was The Apprentice, with Trump starring as a tycoon. 

This time it is Democratic Disorder, with Trump as provocateur, pretending to be peacemaker.

Trump has a strategy for re-election: Send paramilitary forces to provoke protesters in Democratic cities, scare the suburbs, win on platform of restoring order. 

Most of the cast members in Trump's new show are playing their expected roles. There is one big exception, the "Wall of Moms." They are messing up Trump's show by changing the story line.

Black Lives Matter protests after the death of George Floyd evolved into a more general unrest and protest, involving policing, racial grievances, and amorphous generational discontent. Loosely affiliated groups Antifa and a Youth Liberation Army inspire people, primarily young and male, to vandalize, spread graffiti, break windows and doors on federal buildings, and in some cases, throw projectiles at police. It is enough to create a scene of disorder.

That is the backdrop. Trump has gone to work making this into a TV show that will get him re-elected. Trump is trying to change the story from the virus into a better one for him. 

The New York Times reported:

     "President Trump plans to deploy federal law enforcement to Chicago and threatened on Monday to send agents to other major cities--all controlled by Democrats.... Federal agents in Portland have snatched protesters off the streets and thrown them into unmarked vehicles without explaining why they were being detained."

Trump screwed up the virus response. At first it looked promising as a tactic--minimize and hope it goes away, don't over-react. The gamble failed. The virus spread. Unemployment is back up, people are getting sick in swing states, people cannot get test or test results. 

The virus story is a loser for Trump. Disorder in Democratic cities is a winner. 

Swing voters don't want disorder, and he can blame disorder on Democratic officeholders and people over-reacting to alleged racial grievance. Trump's challenge was to keep the protests alive. 

To make sure Antifa, and youth gangs showed up to be the scary bad guys Trump sent in federal police costumed and outfitted to trigger anti-fascist fear factor. They came in black unmarked vehicles. They wear camouflage. They do mysterious, brutal things. They get photographed beating guiltless people. They haul people away to secret places, who are then returned to tell their story. It seems weird and dark. This is exactly the behavior one would do to trigger circulation of the "we are on the brink of fascism" meme.

Trump's military did not need to be mysteriously ominous. This is stagecraft.  Oregon's Attorney General, the ACLU,  federal Democratic officeholders are all upset, as they should be. Para-military policing is a provocation. The responsible parties filed lawsuits and demanded investigations. More important to Trump, the protest groups took the bait. See! Fascism!  The result is more violence, bigger protest groups later into the night, now with a new target and cause.

Fox News knows what to do to play their part in the new show. A broken window and spray paint and protesters walking in nighttime streets are better visuals and a more appropriate Breaking News! story that whether or not Trump wears a mask. It is the "A" block on cable news.

Trump has his starring role: the law and order tough guy who puts down the revolt. The sides line up perfectly, so Trump can talk about violence, not race. The fact that the Antifa and Youth Liberation gangs are gangs of whites, not blacks, is inconvenient, but white protesters, some of whom do illegal acts are chanting "Black Lives Matter" some of the time. It is enough. These violent people are "Biden's America," Trump says, and he will protect us from the violence Biden tolerates.

There is one big spoiler in the group, the Wall of Moms. Groups of women, primarily wearing yellow, have shown up as peacemakers, and protectors of the protests, standing between the protesters and the federal para-military troops. Their presence re-defines the story. They, not the police, become the voice of the suburbs. They are the normal, good people, who want peace, safety, and order, the people that suburban voters can identify with. They aren't joining the federal officers; they are standing between them and the protesters. This redefines the federal officers in military gear as provocateurs sent by Trump, agitators, not peacemakers. 

In 2016 enough people thought Trump was a hell raiser who would drain the swamp and make some good changes. Now Trump's flamboyant, aggressive style is being understood as creating discord. The Moms did important work in Portland. They changed the show. If they stick around, and if similar Moms groups arise in other cities, Trump will need to cancel his new show. Instead of elevating his campaign, it will further sink it. 

Let's see if Moms groups show up elsewhere. 

Relax. Biden will win.

     "Democrats have a massive case of PTSD about 2016, so much that they often overlook how this election is entirely unlike the one four years ago."

       Peter Lemieux, Political Scientist with a quantitative orientation.

Getting beat.

Peter Lemieux: 

Don't worry. Biden has got this one.

My blog post yesterday got pushback. 

Yesterday I wrote that there are some frightening parallels between 2016 and today. Biden is doing what Hillary Clinton did: lay low, let Trump have center stage to self-destruct, and flood the market with a hundred proposals for change.

I warned in 2016, and again yesterday, that this gives Trump a better story than it gives the Democrat. Trump has a simple brand; Biden is left being the off-stage guy who isn't Trump. I worried that this wasn't enough.

Peter Lemieux said I was wrong.

Peter Lemieux is a college classmate who went on to get his Ph.D. in political science from MIT. His career is at the intersection of information technology and quantitative analysis, which gives him a different perspective than mine on politics. (I start with partisanship and tribalism, then add narratives and messages. I think people are choosing sides in a drama.) He looks at granular data on voting behavior: what certain demographic groups voted for in the past, then he adds them up, adjusts figures based on new data, and makes predictions. He puts his own analysis up for public review at his website: www.politicsbythenumbers.org.

Guest Post by Peter Lemieux

Peter Lemieux

"I see Biden winning 300+ electoral votes this fall."

"Democrats have a massive case of PTSD about 2016, so much so that they often overlook how this election is entirely unlike the one four years ago.

Most importantly, 2016 was a open-seat election between two highly-disliked candidates.  2020 is a referendum on Donald Trump. Biden is a good candidate in a race like this since he is so obviously not-Trump.  (People who disliked both candidates in 2016 voted for Trump; in 2020 it's the reverse.)

Second, the margins in polling today generally surpass those seen in 2016.  Biden's lead of 10-15 points is about the same as Reagan's lead over Mondale at this time in 1984.  I recall few pundits expecting Mondale to stage a comeback of that scale.

Third, Hillary ran a poor campaign, especially in the upper Midwest. Not visiting Wisconsin once was a major mistake.

Fourth, Trump won by fewer than 80,000 votes across three states.  I see little chance he will win Pennsylvania or Michigan this time around, and while he might still carry Wisconsin, Biden will likely pick up Arizona.  (I expect astronaut Mark Kelly's campaign for Senate to provide a "reverse-coattails" boost for Biden.)  Flipping just PA, MI, and AZ gives Biden an electoral college majority.

Fifth, people worry that massive campaign spending by outside groups could tilt the balance in the Senate races.  I found no effect for spending by such groups in 2016 and 2018 though spending by the campaigns themselves does matter.  I suspect that massive television advertising, which is the primary instrument available to outside groups, has little effect these days.  Remember how unsuccessful both Bloomberg's and Steyer's campaigns were during the primaries.

Sixth, the polls are better this time around.  Even state pollsters are weighting by education which mattered greatly in 2016.  (Remember the national polls were only off by one percent, giving Clinton an average three-point lead in the popular vote when she won by two.) College-educated people are now more likely to respond to pollsters so they need to be "down-weighted" when estimating figures for the entire electorate.

A plausible way to win

Seventh, Trump is behind in key groups like people over 65.  He carried them by seven points in 2016.  In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Biden leads Trump 54-40 among 65+.  Trump's margins among whites overall, evangelicals, and even white, non-college voters have all declined compared to 2016.

Finally, I haven't even mentioned COVID, Black Lives Matter, or the recession, all of which favor Biden.

I see Biden winning 300+ electoral votes this fall.  My model, based on polling through June 21st, predicts an eleven-point Biden win in November, which corresponds to a 390-148 margin in the Electoral College.  Biden's lead has widened since that article was written.

https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/2020/06/25/some-observations-on-bidens-margin-in-presidential-polling/

I expect Trump to lose badly in November, and the Democrats to end up flipping the Senate by a couple of seats.  My Senate model includes Trump's approval at the state level, and again, he is only trending in the wrong direction.

https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/2020/03/05/senate-update-march-2020/ "


People ask, what about attempts to steal the election?

These are all common fears on the left, but I don't think any of them will play a big role in 2020.

Let's take voter suppression first.  Yes, there are a few states where governors and state legislatures make it harder for people to vote.  But there are vastly more states where that is not true.  Suppression cannot overcome the kind of margins I expect this fall.

As for electronic voting, many more people (half? more?) will be casting mail-in ballots this fall.  I'm actually more concerned about mail-in ballots being lost by the Postal Service than I am about them being thrown away by local officials.

As for any Trump effort to remain in office after losing, that's what we have the Secret Service for.  I'm pretty confident he would be escorted out of the Oval, by force if necessary, were he to try such a thing.

Finally, please have some faith in the local and state election officials who care a lot about the validity of the elections they oversee.  The program on election administration at the Humphrey School has been extremely active this entire year. https://twitter.com/HHHElections

Hillary's big lead. Democrats beware.

Trump is self destructing. That wasn't enough for Hillary to win. Nor for Biden.

You cannot beat something with nothing. Having a clutter of ideas is as bad as having no ideas.

Democrats are in a danger zone.  Biden is barely visible, yet he is winning big according to the polls.

Campaign analysts share the observation that when an opponent is digging a hole for himself, let him keep digging. Pundits praise Biden's smarts or good fortune that he is sitting in his basement not making news while Trump is making too much news, much of it bad, much of it feeding the idea that Trump is bad at governing, that he has screwed ups the virus response, that he fans the flames of discord, and that he would rather tweet attacks on people than solve real problems.  

Democrats feel hopeful. Pundits are using the word "wave" and "landslide." Biden is so ahead maybe Texas is "within reach." Who would be a good Transportation Secretary? 

Stop!  We have been here before and it turned out badly.

Click: Scary how right I was. Watch out, Biden.

I looked back at this blog's comments in the summer of 2016. Hillary had a solid four to six point lead. There was no particular concern back then about the electoral college. If Hillary won by five points surely Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina would be part of the Hillary tide. 

My Labor Day weekend post back in 2016 said Trump had an unpopular plan, but it was understandable. Meanwhile Hillary was counting on the idea of Trump's self destruction, her relative competence and experience, and the fact that she had a big agenda people could read in detail on her website. I warned that Trump was in the better position, since he, not Hillary, had an understandable plan for change.

1. I wrote Trump had a clear, angry populist message of white grievance, a message that has resonance with many people.  Trump is still doing it.

   "America is weak and the economy bad, he says, because foreigners are taking advantage of us. Immigrants, legal and illegal, are taking our jobs here at home and jobs are moving offshore because of bad trade deals. We are unsafe at home because bad people are here, and come here, and we should protect ourselves better with walls on the borders and internal surveillance of those suspicious people. Normal, regular, white native born Americans have been saps, letting others take advantage of us, and he will stop that on day one."

2. I wrote Hillary was lying low and letting Trump self-destruct, letting the public draw the comparison with her record of competence and experience. 

     "Her plan is to let Trump self destruct by letting him be seen as an untrustworthy carrier of his message--indeed any message. She is playing rope-a-dope. She is hanging back. Let Trump make news. She is near-invisible. Meanwhile, Trump is out in front, talking, making news." 

3. I wrote Hillary announced a gigantic agenda,  but that this communicated clutter and logjam, not hope and change, because there isn't two or three memorable things to latch onto. 

     "It is worse than persuasive: a [proposal] list of 112 communicates muddle and lack of purpose. It communicates "nothing will get done."  It communicates status quo because nothing is super-important."

Biden's campaign is doing exactly what Hillary's did, assuming Trump was self destructing, and instead of giving Americans a clear and strong message that people can remember, gave people an unreadable platform document.

Biden is not Hillary, I realize. He is more empathetic. He is less an apparatchik of the professional class elites. He has better working-man regular-Joe credibility. His bumbles and gaffes make him both less credible as a strong manager but more relatable as a nice, sentimental, unpretentious guy. And 2020 isn't 2016. Trump's ethno-nationalism seems more provocative and destructive than it did in 2016. No analogy to the past is perfect. Still, it is a warning.

Biden can fix this, if he understands the peril. It won't be fixed by creating long policy documents, like this one just released from the Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force   Click: 110 single spaced pages.  This is worse than worthless. It communicates, as with Hillary's 112 proposals, status quo because "nothing is super-important."

Trump's self destruction isn't enough. Biden needs to be a voice of change. Name three things. Have a plan. Look like you have the energy and drive to implement those three things.

Secret Police Kidnappers in Portland

Man in camouflage: "Get in the van!"

Citizen: "Wait. Who are you?"

Men in camouflage: "Shut up. Get in the van!"

It isn't just illegal. It is dangerous. 

In Portland, Oregon there are reports that men in unmarked uniforms have grabbed people, pushed them into vans, blindfolded them, driven them to a secret place, interrogated them, and then released them.

When police agencies have been contacted to confirm this, there appear to be no records.  It is the secret police.

There have been enough stories from credible people, reported by credible people, and not denied by federal officials, to indicate that something weird and dangerous is happening in Portland.  The Trump administration's effort to bring "law and order is taking the form of scaring the bejesus out of protesters with a super-size version of "stop and frisk." It is intimidation. It attempts a chilling effect. 

Stop and frisk, readers may recall, is a policing policy that directs police to stop and briefly detain any person an officer deems suspicious. The citizen is directed to lean out with their hands on a building or squad car, feet spread, while police search their pockets for contraband or evidence of some illegal activity. People are profiled based on appearance (age, race, clothes, time of day, demeanor) and find it humiliating. The encounter sends a message that they are being watched and had better not do anything illegal. This practice is controversial, but legal, since the encounters are brief, considered a detention, not an arrest. It takes place in public.

Federal law enforcement agencies are performing an enhanced form of this in Portland, only this time it is secret and denied, therefore not accountable. Unmarked vans have approached peaceful protests and shoved people into vans for interrogation. The head of the US Customs and Border Protection, Mark Morgan, gave an explanation by twitter: The agency "will continue to arrest the violent criminals that are destroying federal property & injuring our agents/officers in Portland.” The acting Homeland Security chief was in town and said their purpose was to "restore order." In actual practice, the people being put into vans were not violent nor were they acting legally. After all, they were released.

Oregon officials, from the Governor, two Senators, Portland's Mayor, the County Sheriff objected. They are provoking violence, not restoring order, they said. Governor Kate Brown said the Homeland Security chief's comments "showed me he is on a mission to provoke confrontation for political purposes. He is putting both Oregonians and local law enforcement officers in harm’s way.”

Shot by accident

The exact identity and intent of armed people is a matter of life and death, for citizens and police both.

In two recent events Americans have died in circumstances involving force by unknown actors. Police in Louisville, Kentucky exercised a surprise late-night no-knock entry on an apartment rented by Breonna Taylor. The police thought a man they sought might be there. He wasn't. Indeed, he was already in police custody elsewhere.

Breonna Taylor was awakened by loud banging from late night intruders. A boyfriend, unclear about who and what was going on, attempted self defense against the intruders with a handgun and fired it, hitting a police officer. The police, opened a volley of fire of their own into the apartment, killing Taylor in her bedroom. 

In Brunswick, Georgia three men saw a man jogging in their neighborhood and suspected criminal behavior. They got onto pickup trucks with weapons, pursued him, boxed him in and then, when he was cornered and turned to grab a gun pointed at him, he was shot and killed. The original determination by local law enforcement, prior to videotape becoming public, was that this was an act of self defense by the shooter. After all, a black man was reaching for a gun. The videotape suggested a different story, that Aubery was running away to avoid confrontation with armed men, and it was he that acted in desperation and self defense.

Again, the identity and intent of people using force is a matter of life and death. 

Prudent people do not just get into the vans of strangers. Prudent people do submit to police, but they also justly use self defense when confronted by armed assailants. Mysterous kidnappings by federal officers have consequences. They create confusion. It blurs the line between accountable policing and criminal intent. Protesters will carry weapons. Citizens will get shot. Police officers will get shot.

If the goal is law and order, this policy makes no sense. 

The kidnappings do make sense if the goal is prolonging disorder and creating visuals of confrontations to show as Breaking News on Fox, which is happening currently.  In Trump's view, urban protests--not the virus--are the primary danger to public safety.

 He is betting the swing voters of America care a lot about street violence, but at this point they are sick of fighting the virus and wearing masks.