Trump is self destructing. That wasn't enough for Hillary to win. Nor for Biden.
You cannot beat something with nothing. Having a clutter of ideas is as bad as having no ideas.
Democrats are in a danger zone. Biden is barely visible, yet he is winning big according to the polls.
Campaign analysts share the observation that when an opponent is digging a hole for himself, let him keep digging. Pundits praise Biden's smarts or good fortune that he is sitting in his basement not making news while Trump is making too much news, much of it bad, much of it feeding the idea that Trump is bad at governing, that he has screwed ups the virus response, that he fans the flames of discord, and that he would rather tweet attacks on people than solve real problems.
Democrats feel hopeful. Pundits are using the word "wave" and "landslide." Biden is so ahead maybe Texas is "within reach." Who would be a good Transportation Secretary?
Stop! We have been here before and it turned out badly.
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| Click: Scary how right I was. Watch out, Biden. |
I looked back at this blog's comments in the summer of 2016. Hillary had a solid four to six point lead. There was no particular concern back then about the electoral college. If Hillary won by five points surely Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina would be part of the Hillary tide.
My Labor Day weekend post back in 2016 said Trump had an unpopular plan, but it was understandable. Meanwhile Hillary was counting on the idea of Trump's self destruction, her relative competence and experience, and the fact that she had a big agenda people could read in detail on her website. I warned that Trump was in the better position, since he, not Hillary, had an understandable plan for change.
1. I wrote Trump had a clear, angry populist message of white grievance, a message that has resonance with many people. Trump is still doing it.
"America is weak and the economy bad, he says, because foreigners are taking advantage of us. Immigrants, legal and illegal, are taking our jobs here at home and jobs are moving offshore because of bad trade deals. We are unsafe at home because bad people are here, and come here, and we should protect ourselves better with walls on the borders and internal surveillance of those suspicious people. Normal, regular, white native born Americans have been saps, letting others take advantage of us, and he will stop that on day one."
2. I wrote Hillary was lying low and letting Trump self-destruct, letting the public draw the comparison with her record of competence and experience.
"Her plan is to let Trump self destruct by letting him be seen as an untrustworthy carrier of his message--indeed any message. She is playing rope-a-dope. She is hanging back. Let Trump make news. She is near-invisible. Meanwhile, Trump is out in front, talking, making news."
3. I wrote Hillary announced a gigantic agenda, but that this communicated clutter and logjam, not hope and change, because there isn't two or three memorable things to latch onto.
"It is worse than persuasive: a [proposal] list of 112 communicates muddle and lack of purpose. It communicates "nothing will get done." It communicates status quo because nothing is super-important."
Biden's campaign is doing exactly what Hillary's did, assuming Trump was self destructing, and instead of giving Americans a clear and strong message that people can remember, gave people an unreadable platform document.
Biden is not Hillary, I realize. He is more empathetic. He is less an apparatchik of the professional class elites. He has better working-man regular-Joe credibility. His bumbles and gaffes make him both less credible as a strong manager but more relatable as a nice, sentimental, unpretentious guy. And 2020 isn't 2016. Trump's ethno-nationalism seems more provocative and destructive than it did in 2016. No analogy to the past is perfect. Still, it is a warning.
Biden can fix this, if he understands the peril. It won't be fixed by creating long policy documents, like this one just released from the Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force Click: 110 single spaced pages. This is worse than worthless. It communicates, as with Hillary's 112 proposals, status quo because "nothing is super-important."
Trump's self destruction isn't enough. Biden needs to be a voice of change. Name three things. Have a plan. Look like you have the energy and drive to implement those three things.
5 comments:
America gave Trump a chance. It is my recollection that even you, Peter Sage, thought Trump might surprise people and be more a president for the people. That now that he was elected he would move to the middle, maybe even do some good health care stuff.
America now has no question in their mind what kind of president he is and will be. It is that understanding more than anything else that will drive the election.
Am I worried about Trump being re-elected? Yes, but do I think he will be re-elected, no.
Biden could ensure his victory by going against wokeism. He has the working class cred to pull it off. He could unite the middle against the extremes on both sides.
But my guess is that he won’t.
In the same way that the polls missed anti-Hillary feeling last time, I suspect they are missing anti-woke feeling this time.
I live in a suburb adjacent to Portland. Most of my neighbors are amazed and appalled at what the authorities in Portland are allowing to happen. Even those of us who are not particularly religious thank God every day that we had the good luck to find a place to live that wasn’t inside the city limits.
It's not 2016, but I agree, Democrats have not changed their basic message. We don't dislike Trump any more than we did then, and Biden is not a change candidate. This is dangerous. James Carville is celebrating and that should scare everyone. Biden's lead could evaporate as the Republican base hardens and Independents find the excuse they are looking for to vote Republican.
We are in an unprecedented crisis. All Trump has to do is pivot to a "national emergency plan" and no matter how vague and ineffective it is he will be a hero. This has been the strategy in the past ("fix what you broke") and signs point to it now. At that point Democratic opposition will be seen as unpatriotic.
Three things:
1. National lockdown with associated economic moratorium and subsidies.
2. Unequivocal Healthcare For All
3. Income inequality and related racial injustice
Fauci should resign and join Biden campaign as healthcare advisor advocating lockdown. The pandemic response was politicized by the Republicans and they should now suffer the consequences.
This was a prophetic warning by Peter Sage in 2016, and we had better heed it this time, too. A big difference is how much Hillary was hated and how much Biden is liked, as a person. The VP choice is going to mean a lot.
I do think that we have to pull back on the protests in the cities, as that is a big rally point I see on the right wing pages. That, and the untrue rumors that Biden is for defunding the police.
I disagree with Rick Milward that we don't dislike trump more now! But I am appalled at how many things trump has pulled and gotten away with! And people are forgetting!
The audience for the long Biden-Sanders policy statement isn't the general electorate. It's the Sanders voters who need to be persuaded that they should vote for Biden. There's plenty of time for Biden's team to craft the abbreviated positions you rightly advise.
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