Regime fatigue: What could go wrong for Democrats in Oregon

Oregon and Texas have one-party rule.

Parties that hold power a long time get careless. 

Oregon Democrats will probably escape the consequences this time. 

Opinion journalist Matthew Yglesias said it so well I will simply quote him:

Beyond that, Abbott’s problem is that he’s been in office a long time and he’s the third Republican governor in a row and there’s been a G.O.P. trifecta for a long time and it’s just hard to govern for a really long time without eventually overreaching and pissing people off. The longer any party coalition governs, the more scandals accumulate and the more undisciplined its leaders become. It gets easier for voters to take for granted whatever they like about them and harder for aligned interest groups to take “no” for an answer about their most unsound ideas. You see a version of this in the relatively tight polling for the Oregon governor’s race. I think Tina Kotek will probably pull it off, but if there were a Democrat in the White House, she’d be in real trouble.

Texas has been reliably red for decades. With no real opposition, the party’s allied interest groups and its demands for loyalty have let Texas be carelessly extreme. Take abortion. Texas violated its own culture of Western independence with a law that puts a bounty on anyone who helps a woman get an abortion. Some counties went further, making it illegal to transport someone along county roads on the way out of state to get one. The anti-abortion lobby felt unrestrained so it got a policy it could hold up as a trophy.

One-party rule also closes ranks. The Texas House impeached Attorney General Ken Paxton on corruption charges. The Republican state Senate refused to convict him. His power intact, and with Trump’s backing, he won the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate, ousting John Cornyn. He is a weak candidate with a giant flaw, and he got there because of one-party solidarity.

Too much strength becomes a weakness. It covers up mistakes of policy and personnel.

I support Governor Tina Kotek. I have donated to her campaign. I consider a Republican governor too big a risk for Oregon, at least while President Trump is in office and keeps making demands on state and local officeholders.

It was different when Mark Hatfield, Tom McCall, and Vic Atiyeh were governor. They were Republicans, and I considered that no great problem. Having both parties in positions of real power meant both parties had buy-in. Each had to act like a responsible governing party. 

A party that sees itself as part of the government does not pretend Oregon roads will maintain themselves. Republican opposition to the Democrats’ transportation package was good politics. Nobody likes a higher gas tax or registration fee, and voters threw the package out in May. But someone, somehow, has to pay to maintain the roads. 

I suspect Kotek will win reelection, but by a closer margin than Democrats usually enjoy. The argument for “bringing balance to Oregon” will make sense to some swing voters. Oregon interest groups that back Democrats -- unions, environmental groups, LGBTQ groups, reproductive rights groups -- have not faced hard opposition. Unions pushed through a law that pays unemployment benefits to striking workers, public employees included -- an idea at the far edge of union aspirations.

Democratic billboard. Drazan did a joint appearance with Ron DeSantis

Still, I am supporting Tina Kotek, even though I wish Republicans had buy-in in Salem. The problem is that gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan, and Republican legislative candidate Brad Hicks, have not separated themselves from the national Republican brand. They don’t dare say they aren’t Trump-obedient -- or at least they have not done so through months of campaigning. Trump might notice. MAGA voters might notice and be disappointed. The active partisans in the GOP want a loyal Republican, not a RINO.

The race may be close, and incumbency-fatigue gives Drazan a real shot, but the 2026 election is about the man who demands to grab center stage from Kotek: Donald Trump. 

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