"If you're gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away."
Don Schlitz, "The Gambler," a song made popular by Kenny Rogers
A reader asked:
"Peter, why did Republicans vote to get rid of the lying con man George Santos, while they stick with Donald Trump, who is even worse?"
Short answer: The sunk cost fallacy.
 |
| Santos, leaving the Capitol, NY Times |
There were strong reasons for Republicans to keep George Santos in the House of Representatives. He was a reliable Republican vote and the party desperately needs reliable votes. Losing Santos makes a thin majority even thinner. Santos set a terrible example, yes, but no one conflated Santos with his Republican colleagues because Santos was one of a kind. He got on TV, but no one thought he was a spokesperson for the party or represented its policies, not in the way that provocateurs like Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, or Lauren Boebert do. They could have kept him, and said that he was the choice of the people of his District.
But Republican officeholders exercised a mix of reason and principle. Santos was caught dead to rights being flagrantly dishonest and unethical. They considered him unworthy of the office of U.S. Representative, so they expelled him.
But Republican officeholders cling to Trump, who held and wants to hold again an even higher office. Trump gets GOP officeholders in political trouble. He is center stage. He represents the GOP, and some of what he says is dangerously unpopular. Trump himself is personally unpopular to a majority of voters. He says outrageous, newsworthy things. He makes ALL CAP rants condemning COMMUNISTS AND TURNCOAT REPUBLICANS!!! He is intemperate in his accusations of bias and fraud in the courts, the FBI, the justice system, and the military. He divides the party by calling long-time party members RINOs. He condemns people that voters and officeholders have a long record of supporting, including senior Republicans and all the party's former presidential nominees. He is under indictment for actions he doesn't deny doing.
There are many reasons for Republicans to have ditched Trump -- but they haven't.
Maybe we shouldn't overthink this. Sometimes the simple answer is the right one. My 30-year experience as a Financial Advisor offers an explanation, and it is far less complicated than the myriad psychological, sociological, demographic theories that circulate. It's the sunk cost fallacy.
I saw this repeatedly. Clients willingly sell their winners. It feels good to do it because selling a profitable investment proves the wisdom of their prior decision to buy. The same client will refuse to sell a loser, even when the prospects for the company continue to deteriorate. Having at one point openly supported Trump -- usually going back to the 2016 election, including after the Access Hollywood revelation -- Republican politicians made an internal decision and public statement that Donald Trump was their guy. They bought the Trump "stock." Now changing one's mind means that whatever credibility they put on the line vouching for Trump would be lost, and indeed reversed. Moreover, it means admitting a mistake to oneself.
People hate losses. They hope to put them off, thereby digging their hole deeper, sacrificing better opportunities. They aren't stuck. They make themselves stuck. They filter out inconvenient information. They dig in.
No one in the GOP politics knew much about George Santos, which is what allowed him to get elected with an extravagant, fabricated resume. Fellow GOP House members never "bought" the Santos stock. With Santos, people could be rational and consistent with their values. With Trump, it's in for a penny, in for a pound.
People correctly accuse this blog of overthinking and over-analyzing little things. I expect to continue doing exactly that. This blog is trying to understand this extraordinary political era. Biden is the president but the era is all about the reaction and triangulation around the great force-field of Trump and his hold on about half of my fellow Americans. All the data and investment research and the visible evidence of a stock continuing to sink would frequently hit a brick wall with investors, just as does information about Trump's bad behavior. Republicans have alternatives but they are sticking with the proven loser. It isn't about data. It is about admitting to oneself that the investment is a mistake.
People hate to do that.
[Note: For daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com. The blog is free and always will be.]
11 comments:
An even simpler explanation is that Trump and his followers are mad. A 2017 New York Times bestseller, “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 27 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President,” made the case that he is dangerously mad and that his madness is catching.
Since that time, of course, the madness and danger have increased exponentially.
McCarthy is retiring and now we will hear him tell the truth about Trump. It’s easy to tell the truth when it’s safe to do so. [ I did it too when I was safe to do so from a narcissistic boss, who after a twenty year career was finally fired for his abuses.)Too bad no one will listen to him anymore. He can admit the stock purchase mistake now since he sold his stock.
George Santos is a nobody. Hypocrisy is alive and well.
Obsessive and pedantic...
It’s also where you get your news. A fellow passenger on a plane was a retired Army Colonel. MBA and Ph.D. In organizational psychology. Very intelligent guy and seemed centered, but a socially and fiscally conservative. His political view was anything to get rid of the Biden “crime family”. I decided to have a pleasant trip rather than ask how he compared those allegations with Trump’s uncontested (and rationalized) indictments. Or Kuchner’s Saudi hedge fund. It’s whatever air we are breathing.
I don’t think that Trump’s support is based on the sunk cost fallacy.
Trump is putting out an emotional message that no one else is. People who like that message don’t have anywhere else to go.
Trying to interact with someone like that Colonel is an exercise in futility, and possibly dangerous. Even more concerning is that somebody like that got elevated to the rank of Colonel.
John C -
Your experience with the colonel on the plane is all too common. Intelligence is not a barrier to madness. Trump’s lies and crimes are a matter of public record, nor has he made any secret of his autocratic plans for a second term. Those who support him anyway may not necessarily be stupid, but they’re definitely crazy.
Mike @3:27:
Well stated, not that any one in the Trump Camp or Anti Biden/Harris will believe you.
Not to put too fine a point on it but wouldn't Santos's gayness play a part in his rejection by a bunch anti-gay republicans and evangelicals? Seems like the Occam's Razor answer to me instead of projecting into the reptilian mindset of Trumpism.
I think it's more of a diversion for them, to keep the Public from focusing on just how screwed up they are. Ejecting Santos, a cheap sleazy grifter while supporting a guy with trials pending on 91 different Felony Charges, including some bordering on Treason.
Peter, when you bring up the Access Hollywood stuff I have to wonder if you missed the panel of women, on CNN of all places, of whom they gathered to comment on that recording. There was no offense, and in fact the general tone was that "we know which type of women he was talking about and we aren't that type."
I'm an excellent cook. I was told by a woman once that the last thing she needed was another man in the kitchen. Did it hurt me? Nope, because I knew what sort of dumb traditionalist stereotype she was referencing, and I further knew it didn't apply to me. I set the table instead and we had a great group dinner.
Most people just don't get offended at such things, even they are told to, even if someone eggs them on with "but wait, there's more..."
Post a Comment