Friday, December 15, 2023

Sausage on the southern border

     "The situation at the border is not sustainable. And that means that you have to either accept it when it’s not sustainable, or you’ve got to address it. And that’s going to cause some consternation within our party."
             
 U.S. Senator Peter Welch (D-Vermont)

The fact that one's family is starving to death in Venezuela is not a legal reason to immigrate to the U.S. But seeking asylum from "a well founded fear of persecution" is a lawful reason.

So people come to the U.S. and say they want asylum. They want to live a better life. 

About 2.4 million people were apprehended at the southern border this past year.
Most immigrants do not sneak in. They enter and present themselves to authorities. They aren't "illegal." Under U.S. law and treaties the U.S. has signed, they have a right to request asylum. But it is widely understood and acknowledged that many of them are gaming the asylum system. 

The crush of people at the border far exceeds the ability of the immigration system to absorb and process them. Their asylum claims are scheduled for adjudication years into the future, and this is fully understood by everyone. In the meantime, they are here in masses too big to absorb. They did not come here to be homeless on America's sidewalks, although some are. They came here eager to fill the jobs that American employers have trouble filling.

The mess at the southern border is unsolved because Democrats are divided and Trump made the issue toxic and divisive. Democrats are motivated by the moral sentiment of avoiding cruelty, including to outsiders; Republicans accept cruelty to outsiders as the means to achieve order. Trump defined the GOP position on immigration: Be tough, be cruel if necessary. Fence immigrants out and "shoot them in the legs." They are rapists, criminals, and terrorists. Trump's actions and message shaped the Democratic response -- do the opposite of Trump, so Democrats tolerated a situation in which immigration laws are unenforced and available to game with immediate claims of amnesty.  A faction within the Democratic left became adamant pro-immigration advocates, condemning as a potential sellout any suggestion that Biden toughen his position. Other Democrats want action on a disorderly border.  Democrats are discovering that many Hispanic citizens join non-Hispanics in wanting stronger border control.  

Meanwhile, Republican senators know an ongoing crisis at the border is a winning political issue. They declined Majority Leader Schumer's offer to allow a clean bill of their own choosing to come to the floor for a vote. Democrats are too divided to solve the problem and Republicans are OK with that. Then House Republicans presented an idea that was sure to anger Democrats and force their hands: Tie Ukraine funding to Biden adopting Republican positions on the southern border. Hold Ukraine hostage. See if Democrats blink.

Sweet are the uses of adversity.

The GOP plan may give Biden the political room necessary to adopt elements of Trump/GOP policies on the border. It will involve threading a needle of opinions on two issues in two parties, simultaneously. Support for Ukraine divides Republicans, some of whom now think Ukraine should adopt Russian terms. Democrats consider protecting Ukraine a high priority. 

Politico

Biden would not willingly disappoint his pro-immigration left. Adopting tougher border policies would be done under compulsion to protect Ukraine. Democratic legislators would have an excuse to disappoint some progressives: They are forced to do it to save Europe from Putin. 
Meanwhile, many Republican voters won't like aid to Ukraine, but they would see Republicans muscle Biden into increased enforcement of the border. They would see liberal tears. 

No one would be particularly happy. People will complain of compromises on matters of high principle. It isn't "winning," but it might mean some action on an intolerable status quo. I expect some Republicans and Democrats to vote no. There may be a majority in each party voting yes because there would be something in it for them. Republicans care about the border. Democrats care about Ukraine.

It isn't pretty. But it is how the sausage gets made and problems get resolved in a republic.




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5 comments:

Low Dudgeon said...

Democratic motivation on migrants long predates Trump. Many believe that capitalist, climate oppressor-hegemon America simply owes functionally open borders to her putative victims, or as a matter of global leveling generally. Moreover, Democrats anticipate new tranches of dependent voters.

Mike Steely said...

If Republicans agreed to actually do something constructive to address the border issue, what would they use to rally their white supremacist base? Now they have their Great Replacement Theory, which depends on the illusion of a southern border held wide open by George Soros and his cabal of suckular humanist liberal globalist elites.

The last major substantive changes to border policy came nearly four decades ago. Don’t hold your breath, especially now that the House is on vacation. They're tired after electing another Speaker and agreeing to continue investigating the Biden crime family.

Peter c said...

I'm just glad my Greek grandparents were let in back in 1915. I can't imagine growing up in a poor country like Greece. Not much there and little opportunity.

Michael Trigoboff said...

Posted for Michael Trigoboff

If Republicans’ tying the Ukraine issue and the border issue together produces action on both, Republican leaders will deserve credit for moving those two important issues forward.

Michael Trigoboff

Brian1 said...

Excellent post, Peter. Very sober and close to reality.

If more people understood this as the way politics really works they'd still be sickened by it, but would sound much less zealous.