You get one chance to make a first impression.
I hope the delay in the Manhattan hush-money case is so the Georgia case can be filed first.
The presumed "delay" in the hush-money case is because Trump announced that he would be arrested three days ago, on Tuesday, in that case. He wasn't.
There is a "tell" there. Trump announced his impending arrest. Trump took the lead. Trump wanted the hush-money case to be the frame for all future indictments. His presumed crime there was the mis-identification of business records, his having put "legal fees" on a check to Michael Cohen rather than "hush-money reimbursement." The impending arrest inspired outcries from Republican officeholders, and Photoshop fake images like this one.
Republicans imagined an ugly arrest like this as proof that Democrats are doing politics, not justice. Democrats--at least some of them--imagine this image as sweet justice. After all, Trump broke the law. It was hush money, and arguably a campaign donation, not legal fees, not exactly.
The Manhattan D.A. may well fall into the trap.
College classmate Jim Stodder wrote me with his vivid perspective on this. He teaches international economics and securities regulation at Boston University, with recent research on how carbon taxes and rebates can be both income equalizing and green. During and after college he knocked around as a roughneck in the oil fields. Then he returned to formal studies and received a Ph.D. from Yale in economics. His website: www.jimstodder.comGuest Post by Jim Stodder
 |
| Jim Stodder, selfie, taken this morning |
In a famous scene in the HBO series, The Wire, the scary cool Omar says it after two hitmen fail in trying to kill him: "When you come at the King, you best not miss." That's the problem with the first case against Trump that's about to break.
Of the five cases now in the hopper, which one do you think Trump is the least worried about? The Georgia case for his pressure to miscount votes? The US Congress case for the January 6 attack on Capitol? The IRS case for years of tax fraud on his businesses? The FBI case for refusing to turn over secret government documents? Or the one about paying a pornstar so she wouldn't blab to the press?Bingo, that last one. Not only is it by far the least serious, it's the one his supporters all know is true. They either don't care or actually think it's kinda cool. The cover up -- as was said about Nixon -- is worse than the crime. Except that the hush money payment to Stormy Daniels wasn't even a crime. And covering it up was probably only a misdemeanor. Not the thing to go after a king.What about Al Capone? When the Feds got him for tax fraud, his underlying crimes of racketeering and murder were far worse than his accounting cover-ups. So Trump is no Big Al; he's not even a little Tricky Dick.Even if he's convicted for the Stormy financial cover-up, I doubt it will hurt his political fortunes. It might even help him, as it will be seen by many -- not just his MAGA hats -- as a small-time political prosecution.And there's one more thing. Everyone knows that if you have to explain a joke, the joke is dead. Now try explaining why the accounting Fun-and-Games around the Stormy payout were a crime. That's what a NY Times op-ed does, https://nyti.ms/40n1p6p, and it's a mess. Even those who hate Trump won't be able to keep it straight.So this case is going nowhere fast. Nowhere except more mud on the faces of my poor deluded fellow-Dems, once again falling for their favorite fantasy, The Donald in a jumpsuit that matches his fake tan. Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan DA, should forget about Stormy. Let one of those four other legal cases get there first.
Note: For daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com. The blog is free and always will be.]
9 comments:
I look at it differently. Think of this prosecution as an appetizer, something to wake up your palate for the coming multi course meal.
Yum!
Those who discount the seriousness of this crime overlook one small fact. Had this payoff, which is a de facto illegal campaign contribution and an attempt to hide it as such, been made public or the "actress" revelations, (let's stop mincing words about that also) it very likely would have had an effect on the 2016 election.
Remember Trumps sanctimonious "I will be better" video after the Access Hollywood? It would have kinda made that seem pretty hollow.
That's not a small thing, is it?
I've said this before: It's more dangerous to not uphold the rule of law regardless of the outcome, especially for the rich and powerful.
All Trump is king of are his White supremacist, QAnon base and the Republicans trying to cover-up his crimes. Prosecuting him for his sleazy campaign violation isn’t likely to mobilize anyone except those he has already mobilized.
The worst that could happen is his goons decide to take up arms against the government – again. This time the government should be better prepared, because it won’t be the president inciting the treason.
I don’t particularly like Trump. I didn’t vote for him, But watching the Democrats chase illusions like Russiagate and the Stormy Daniels situation reminds me of nothing so much as this Internet meme:
2015: We got him now
2016: We got him now
2017: We got him now
2018: We got him now
2019: We got him now
2020: We got him now
2021: We got him now
2022: We got him now
2023: We got him now
Trump just threatened us with “death and destruction” if he is indicted, and accused the D.A. of being “a degenerate psychopath that hates the USA!”
If his pornstar payoff is the crime he's “least worried” about being indicted for, you have to wonder what he’ll threaten when he’s charged with something serious.
Per Wikipedia, in 2011 John Edwards was indicted on 6 felony counts by a federal grand jury for misusing campaign funds to cover up his extra-marital affair with Rielle Hunter. At the trial, Edwards was found not guilty on one count and the jury was hung on the other charges.
Not a lawyer, but folks can look it up themselves.
The timing of the payments before the election is obvious. Ms. Daniels also stated that she and her child were threatened, as I recall. The NYC (now FL) malignant narcissist also has a long history of cheating (not a crime by itself) and also paying off people. The whole thing is believable.
Michael Cohen, former attorney and hired fixer, already was convicted and served time for his role in this crime. There is no reason the former Occupant should get special treatment. Maybe he can cut a deal. Don't do the crime if you can't do the time.
Of course he thinks that he can do whatever he wants and get away with it. Time will tell. Many people resent it when the "little people" get prosecuted but not the high and mighty. January 6, 2021 is a perfect example.
Also, at one point the former Occupant decided to sue Stormy Daniels for violating the 2016 non-disclosure agreement associated with the hush money payments. Eventually he changed his mind about suing her. She claimed that the 2016 non-disclosure agreement was not valid because he never signed it.
We've been saying this at our Seder for years now and will say again on Wed.: This time next year, no indecision:
Together in Person; Trump in Prison.
Still hoping for that, and that the Stormy brings on the even stormier lockup.
Not sure how G-d will feel about repurposing of a sacred ceremony for secular purposes. I would check and make sure the lightning rod on your house is secure and wired up correctly. 🌩️⚡️💥
Post a Comment