Was Trump paying hush money to Stormy Daniels a crime?
Trump says he is the victim of a "corrupt, depraved, and weaponized justice system."
Let's assume Trump really had sex with Stormy Daniels. He denies it, but having sex with a young woman when it was available to him, then denying it, is the kind of thing Trump would do. "When you are a star, they let you." There are photographs of Trump and Daniels together. She has a story about Trump's odd mushroom-shaped penis. There are a series of checks totaling $130,000, some signed by Trump, some by his business manager. The checks were purportedly "legal expenses" to his lawyer. The chain of checks equaled those paid out to Daniels, making a strong inference that the money was really for Daniels. Trump's lawyer at the time, Michael Cohen, testified that they were indeed hush-money payments. Cohen admitted his role, plead guilty to the crime of having participated in the sham, and was sentenced to nearly four years in prison.
We are witnessing the oldest story in the history of men, women, and marriage. Trump had sex with someone he shouldn't have and tried to hide it. This isn't complicated. It isn't right, but it is not uncommon either. Daniels wanted money and Trump had money to offer. Most Americans look at it as a family matter, not a criminal matter. Melania knew what she was getting when she married Trump. So did Hillary when she married Bill Clinton.
A quarter century ago Bill Clinton engaged in sex play with Monica Lewinsky. Republicans got word of it. Clinton was embarrassed and denied it. A special prosecutor who came up empty on a Clinton land investment switched his focus to the sex case. Bill Clinton tried damage control by lying about it. Republican officeholders called the denial a matter of grave national importance and justification for impeachment. Democrats minimized it, saying that America should slap Bill's wrist, censure him or something, and move on.
The world has changed since 1998. Republicans flipped sides after having been firm and righteous that Bill Clinton was a sexual predator and a danger to the rule of law. Now they defend Trump. The new GOP realizes that it likes that alpha-male, I-take-what-I want vibe. They prefer that to a prissy wimp like Mike Pence or a puritan scold like Liz Cheney. Those two are constrained by norms and laws, but Republicans now prefer a swashbuckling rebel. Democrats switched, too. Democratic partisans are cheering on the prosecution. Democrats should remember history. Instead of losing seats in the 1998 midterms, Democrats gained five. It was a major loss of face for Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, the person most associated with the GOP effort to "get" Bill Clinton.
The Manhattan D.A. is expected to prosecute the crime of "falsification of business records," which would be a misdemeanor. That has a fatal problem. The statute of limitations for that misdemeanor is two years, and that has lapsed. To turn this into a felony, where there is a five year statute of limitations, the prosecution needs to argue this was also a campaign finance violation, a federal crime. The prosecution asserts that paying Stormy Daniels via Michael Cohen was primarily motivated to influence the election, not hide this from Melania. There is another complication: A campaign violation is a federal crime, not a state one, so calling these two crimes for the purpose of a creating a state felony may not be legal. In addition to that hurdle, the case relies on the jury trying to guess Trump's motivation, and presume he wasn't also thinking about his wife Melania back at home, with a new baby Baron.
The prosecutor needs to walk the jury though a tightrope. If anyone on the jury has reasonable doubts about Trump's mixed motivations, Trump is acquitted, which is vindication for Trump. The general public, which will follow any trial by the media, will hear the story that this is a paperwork crime, false expense reporting combined with an in-kind campaign contribution made through the wrong vehicle. It will look like a stretch. Even if Trump is found guilty, Democrats will have established that they will go after Trump for technical paperwork crimes when the giant crime is Trump's effort to organize an overthrow of the government.
The case is a loser. The Bill Clinton history taught us that Americans don't really care that much about consensual sex by presidents, at least male ones. Apparently we expect it from alpha males. JFK apparently had sex with Marilyn Monroe. That doesn't destroy his reputation. He was young and good looking; she was hot and willing. What is the surprise here? Trump has re-affirmed that lesson multiple times.
Democrats are forgetting the lessons of history. Prosecute him for his real crimes. Not this.
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14 comments:
This argument makes the assumption that our justice system is partisan, and in fact it's stated as immutable fact, which is contrary to the fundamental principle of "no one above the law".
Is it really true? It looks to me that if anything prosecutors are being extra diligent in investigating exactly to avoid accusations of political bias. Bragg may have put the investigation aside as was alleged because of the difficulties in pursuing a president while in office, as well as the statute of limitations issue, and in fact revisited the case because of political pressure.
"No one above the law" could be invoked here as well, in favor of indictment.
At any rate, the facts should be presented to a jury and the public, if only to counter the obvious lies and denials.
I will never understand why Clinton exposed himself (pun intended) by his affair with "Ms. Lewinsky, that woman", but I think it's wrong to say Americans don't care. True, many don't but it contributed to Democrats losing the 2000 election and an indictment of Trump will make a difference now, if only on the margins.
As far as the alpha male thing goes, I prefer the Urban Dictionary definition:
"In human beings an alpha male is more of a personality type that usually describes someone who is arrogant, obnoxious, insensitive, selfish, competitive while also being insecure and often resorting to physical violence. Alpha male is a term that people use to protect their egos in order to explain and validate their treatment of other people."
Hardly an admirable distinction.
Forget about Stormy Daniels. The far more interesting and serious ceses against Trump are the federal investigations into his role in the Jan. 6 attack on Capitol and broader efforts to overturn the 2020 election, as well as the top-secret documents found at Mar-a-Lago. Then there’s the state investigation into his interference in Georgia’s 2020 election.
He’ll be providing plenty of legal entertainment for some time to come but if anything, it will only increase Republican devotion to him. There’s something about his malevolent persona that draws them like moths to the flame.
I think this case will result in a hung jury. No pun intended
Much of today's blog is just plain tacky, tabloid, sensationalistic and revolting. Could have been written by a teenage-boy, political science nerd, drooling over the details of the alleged extra-marital affair.
This case is not necessarily "a loser" at all. But I am not going to waste my time trying to defend why he should be prosecuted when it is obvious.
As for the presumptuous and misogynistic comments about Melania and Hillary, I would like to know your sources that they "knew" what they were getting when they married these men, specifically how they "knew" precisely how Donny and Billy would behave after they freely said "I do." And by the way, Melania and Hillary are two VERY DIFFERENT women, so I am not sure why you decided to lump them together.
Why are you even dragging Bill and Hillary into this? Sex on the brain? Different facts and circumstances and different (alleged) crimes involved.
Please stick to only the necessary facts and kindly spare us the lurid details. It is beneath you and your readers. That type of content is readily available elsewhere for anyone who wants it.
Why are you attacking Melania and Hillary?? What is wrong with you??
These serial skirt chasers were Not charged with adultery. Melania and Hillary did not request that their husbands be prosecuted for adultery or anything else.
These wives and their children are victims in these matters. This is more victim blaming and shaming. Instead, you should put all of the blame where it belongs, on the cheaters. The cheating and bad behavior led to the crimes and the cover-up of the crimes, ALLEGEDLY. And in the case of Clinton, as I recall, he sexually harassed Paula Jones, a state employee, in a hotel room.
Melania and Hillary were not involved in commiting these crimes, as far as I know. Leave them alone.
TDS* is a terrible affliction that has many negative effects on those who suffer from it.
* Trump Derangement Syndrome
I am not surprised to get some strong negative feedback in the comments. I assumed from the start back in 2015 that if I put blog posts up for public reading that I would get unhappy reader comments.
The pushback on the sex subject, calling it teenage and prurient, is particularly welcome. It helps make my point.
People who bring up the subject of gross sex acts are disliked by a large segment of the population. It makes people uncomfortable. Kenneth Starr made people uncomfortable and angry in 1998 and this prosecution is doing the same now. People didn't like Starr describing what supposedly happened with a cigar and they don't like Stormy describing Trump, nor me referencing what she said. This is my point. This is a dangerous topic, and it is not strictly about boring stuff like business records. It is about covering up adulterous sex.
I mentioned Melania and Hillary because, as I heard repeatedly in 2016, it was Hillary who got the blame of women, far more than did Bill. People said they thought Hillary had no self respect, no integrity, that she would do anything out of ambition, and the proof was that she took Bill back. I thought it unfair at the time and still do.
I don't intend to blame the victim. Each of them were the victim, but they were not naive victims. They are double-victims, though, first by their husbands and then by the public that criticizes them. I watch the glee with which fellow Democrats predict a glorious messy divorce when Melania moves out. I believe that the misogyny that is said to be widespread in America is, in fact, widespread and systemic. I do not intend to praise it, or amplify it. I am observing it. The wives get badly treated. Noting that is better than hiding from it. I happily voted for Hillary, but a majority of White women did not. Misogyny is very real, and women are part of the problem.
Maybe everything will work out for Democrats with this prosecution. Maybe people will blame Trump for trying to hide his adultery. Maybe they will be outraged that a campaign contribution was misidentified. Maybe this case will be entirely different from 1998. I have been mistaken before. But I don't feel ashamed of my opinion nor do I think voicing it is "beneath me." Warning Democrats not to be blind to political reality is what I try to do in this blog. My progressive friends think other people are like them. That is why progressive politics is so frustrating for them, it is why progress is painfully slow, and why comments like mine seem so hopelessly wrong. I am not hopeless. I am so hopeful that I believe Democrats will wise up if I keep warning them about where they are screwing up.
Peter Sage
The alleged crimes are at issue, not the wives. There is no need to mention, accuse or attack Melania and Hillary. It doesn't add anything meaningful to the blog post. It is just mean, if that is what you want to be.
Since Trump Derangement Syndrome has been mentioned, people might want to know what it is.
TDS: Delusions of adequacy; the smug dismissal of whatever one doesn’t want to hear as “fake news,” “a hoax” or “a witch hunt.”
Peter said:
I am so hopeful that I believe Democrats will wise up if I keep warning them about where they are screwing up.
You and Ruy Teixeira. I hope you are both successful.
I thought this would be interesting, since Peter recently featured it:
A new single, “Justice for All,” featuring former President Donald Trump, from the J6 Prison Choir, reached No. 1 on iTunes’ top songs on March 11.
This is an excellent example of Trump Derangement Syndrome, and there’s obviously a lot of it going around. Imagine, some people actually find such mockery patriotically inspiring! Crazy is the new normal, but I do hope Trump is able to join his chumps in the slammer soon.
As far as I can tell, the on L y people suffering from Trump Derangement are the one who keep sending him money. Or possibly the Attornrys who kept spreading his Big lie, and are now facing rather severe consequences for doing so.
Trump is a disgusting pig.
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