Attributed to Mark Twain:
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."
Humans understand events by hearing that rhyme. We look for templates. History supplies it. This situation is like that one.
Russia is invading Ukraine. We remember that Germany absorbed Austria and Czechoslovakia in 1938. After that Germany allied with Russia to invade and absorb half of Poland. And then all of Poland. We hear the rhyme: Russia today is the Germany of 1938, so watch out. Lessons come into focus. Don't be Neville Chamberlain. Appeasement just encourages more invasions. Ukraine today. Moldova soon. Then Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland, Poland. We have a template.
 |
| Agreement to preserve the peace |
I see another template, and it is also a warning. That template is the problem of using the wrong template. American leaders misunderstood Vietnam. They thought Vietnam was another domino in a lineup of dominoes balanced on edge, ready to fall to communism. Both Democratic and Republican political leaders thought Vietnam was Czechoslovakia and they didn't want to be accused of being Neville Chamberlain. They needed a different template, one of colonialism. Vietnam was part of French Indochina, a colony, and it had become impossible for French Catholics to govern Asian Buddhists who had a rising sense of national identity. Those colonized Asians were liberated from the French by the Japanese invasion in 1942, but with the end of World War II, Japan was gone. The French wanted back in as a colonial power, a losing cause that the U.S. took over. Americans had dominos in mind, not national independence, because Vietnam had allied with Chinese Communists. We should not have been surprised because we had yet another template, had we been willing to see it. Back in 1776, when we were attempting independence from Britain, we Americans allied with the convenient big power opponent of the British, the French. The correct template: Vietnam was the USA of 1776.
The political left fears that Trump is a would-be Hitler. There are enough parallels to feed that fear. The quick consent given by Republicans to Trump's flagrant anti-democratic behavior leads Democrats to worry that this is 1933 all over again. Crowds cheer Michael Flynn, who advocated martial law to seize voting machines. Martial law would create angry crowds that would be a Reichstag Fire. The Proud Boys might become the Brown Shirts. We had a trial run on January 6. A major news outlet, Fox, doesn't condemn the insurrection. It calls the people in it victims.
I think the Hitler template is an error. Unlike Hitler and Mussolini, Trump is not looking for new habitat to conquer. Trump's interests are domestic. Canada is not at risk. Trump does not covet Mexico. He wants to wall it off, not own it. Trump is an isolationist. Trump's world view is that this is a dog-eat-dog world, with winners and losers. White Christians are his winners. Like European fascists of the 1930s, Trump is motivated by the loss of something precious in a war. Trump's precious lost object is the idealized past greatness of the America of the 1950s, before Black civil rights, before feminism, before diversity, equity, and inclusion. His America lost the culture war.
 |
| Defender of the faith |
The better template to consider is the popular, undemocratic leader, who waives aside old fashioned legal processes to give "the people" what it wants. Victor Orbán in Hungary and Vladimir Putin in Russia are a more plausible template for understanding the potential future for the U.S. Orbán and Putin represent "illiberal democracy," They project a can-do dismissal of frustrating process in shared power. Trump said he would end civil service, have immediate death penalties for drug users, empower police to "not be so careful."
This template keeps the veneer of democracy but not its reality. Pretexts give "good people" an excuse. Trump openly urged election officials to pretend there was fraud and then cast electoral votes for him. He dangled pardons to keep people from testifying against him. In past eras Americans would have been shocked by this corruption. Now Republicans accept it. Their voters want it. A new norm has been established.
The template I worry about is not Hitler. It is Putin's Russia.
[Note: For daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com Subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.]
4 comments:
Whether the template is Hitler or Putin, the point is that it’s anti-democratic and anti-American. Republicans made their autocratic intentions about as clear as they could when they tried to overturn a free and fair election. They oppose diversity, universal health care, un control, environmental regulations..in other words, anything good.
As if to flaunt their contempt for decency, now they’re going after E.S.G. investments, which they call “woke capitalism.” God forbid that their lust for profits should be tempered by anything so crass as conscience. The GOP has gone seriously insane.
Good point, however Putin is mounting an invasion to take over another country, so I'd say that qualifies as conquering, with a brutality that certainly will be unleashed on the rest of Europe if he's successful. Putin's imperialist delusions are mirrored by our own home grown fascists, with Trump and his minions leading the way.
The danger isn't one of isolationism, it's that once in power they will ally with Russia and other autocracies and subject the West. If you can't see that when you look at Trump, you aren't looking hard enough.
He idolizes Putin, that's what is scary.
In the 1960s and early 1970s, I was a hippie freak anti-Vietnam war protester. But once we chose to lose the war and the North took over the entire country, a wave of “boat people“ refugees fled the ensuing vicious communist persecution. The boat people exodus changed my opinion of the Vietnam war.
A number of templates can be applicable simultaneously. The anti-colonial template fit the Vietnam war, but so did the oppose communist tyranny template. It’s not as simple as “choose the correct template“.
Which template should we apply to current American politics? Here are a few, off the top of my head:
* authoritarian subversion of democracy
* the people rise up against an elite class that doesn’t give a rip about them
* technological change is out of control and needs to be reined in
* racism is the main problem we face in this country
My hope is that eventually a brilliant politician will emerge who can synthesize many of the currently applicable templates into a message that will attract the support of a large majority of Americans. I haven’t seen that yet, but I have my fingers crossed.
Trump has shown his love of Putin and also Kim, too. He likes absolute leaders who answer to no one. He wants to be one of them. Elections are for losers. The Chinese leader who was appointed President for life. Who wouldn't want to be him? That's Trump. Really shocked when he was kicked out of office. Must have been fraud. How else could he lose?
Those are Trump's templates. The Dictators who nobody can question. Every quote that may or may not be true. It doesn't matter. If he said it, it must be so. His followers bow their heads and accept everything. Sort of like church.
I wonder how history will treat him.
Post a Comment