Lots of little things matter in a campaign.
There is one big thing. Political party.
This blog got started seven years ago when I began noticing little things. I noticed how long Hillary Clinton stood at a three-hour event. (All of it.) I noticed the high school band playing outside a Trump event in New Hampshire. It gave a feel of "a rally," not a speech. I noticed that Marco Rubio's speeches in Florida were a back and forth mix of English and Spanish. I noticed Amy Klobuchar wore drab clothes.
It was engaging to be attentive and to think that these subtle elements created the first impression and then the ultimate brand of the candidate. That led to the cynical insight that politics was a lot like professional wrestling, with candidates adopting larger-than-life stereotype roles. Bully vs. Nerd vs. Schoolmarm vs. Wanna-be.
Yesterday's election results are leading me to a different insight. Maybe all that branding is nearly irrelevant, except at the very margin in close races. Maybe candidates mostly carry just one brand: Political party.
U.S. Senator Ron Wyden won handily statewide. He ran against a nearly invisible Republican candidate. Jo Re Perkins was an invisible, token Republican candidate. A placeholder. She got 42% of the vote statewide. Ron Wyden is a political pro, having been in the House, and now the Senate, for 42 years. He meets citizens in a town hall in every one of the 36 Oregon counties every year. He does everything a workhorse officeholder is supposed to do. He is a centrist, not a liberal/progressive. He is so formidable that Republican PACs and interest groups leave him alone. He spent significant money on advertisements anyway. He is the high water mark for a Democrat in Oregon. He got 55% of the statewide vote.
There we see the range of statewide possibility for this year. The weakest possible Republican 42% versus the strongest possible Democrat, 55%.
In my home county, Jackson, the result was Wyden 46%, Perkins 51%. We see the high water mark of Democratic candidate quality and visibility: 46%. In a local Jackson County Commissioner race we see the partisan skew when most voters know very little other than party. We see a baseline in an election where few people know enough to compare the two candidates: Democrat Denise Krause was a fine candidate but was virtually unknown. There is essentially no "earned media" because the TV stations and what is left of the newspaper do negligible coverage of local political news. She got 42% of the vote. The incumbent Republican Rick Dyer, 58%.
The range of candidate influence is exposed. It helps to explain Tim Ryan's loss in Ohio and the close race in Georgia. Ryan is a Democrat in Republican-leaning Ohio. Walker is a Republican in Georgia, and if elected he will do Republican things.
In Jackson County Oregon, the baseline for a Democrat with no special positive or negative influences is 42%--the Denise Krause vote. That's the floor. The high water mark for a hugely funded, well known, and essentially unopposed Democrat, Senator Wyden, is 46%. That is the ceiling, when running against a placeholder.
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12 comments:
Very astute observation.
Imagine a ballot where party affiliation is not on the ballot at all. Perhaps that might get people to consider the qualifications, and what they recall from the campaign rhetoric.
We can only hope.
A D or an R after a name doesn't tell us much at all, though it does sometimes lead to the wrong conclusions as the broad brush comments exhibited here at times might indicate.
And I just learned that voters simply don't pay attention:
Democrat Tony DeLuca, the longest-running Pennsylvania state representative, at 39 years, died last month at 85 of lymphoma, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
He was reelected yesterday.
I still have some red koolaid left, but I'm tossing it (until next time?).
At least DeSantis was ascendant in direct proportion to the harm
done Trump.
42% for the likes of Perkins vs. Wyden at 55% does say it all on party stamp..
Stuff happens! As a young college student I was an Oregon Republican, as was my military family. I was a poll watcher for Goldwater. I liked what Nixon said about ending the Viet Nam War. I liked our Republican Governors, and Senators. I like the maverick stance of Wayne Morris, a Democrat. What changed? A police riot in Portland that cleared the Portland State park blocks of antiwar demonstrators.
Being a beginning high school teacher and observing the political games played by politicians that saw pubic school funding as a political football to kicked around at election time but never addressing the issues when elected. I became active in the teacher's union and saddled myself with an in-school job of union rep and went on to sit on the union's negotiations committee where I presented our salary proposals. I went to Salem and watched the House legislate by committee, bill writing, and conference/hearings/debate before a vote. I saw the divide between urban (Portland) and Medford (rural). I learned to watch what candidates did and filtered out what their campaign said. I became a thinking independent Democrat. I became more cautious in how I cast my vote. The choice this time same to be who will move us forward and address the pressing issues or who wants to return to some form of follow-the-leader authoritarian and myth spinner.
To Peter's point of todays blog, my opinion was formed in my youth which I rely on when I cast my ballot. There are also many products I used and cars I drove in my youth that has made me loyal life-long consumer. So, yes the "D" matters as a brand identifier but I still look under the hood and kick the tires before I blindly follow... or so I think. Looking back to my teacher union days I'd say this is where I began to question the knee jerk feeling about Republicans as I watched Republican politicians hobble Oregon fine public school system with funding cuts and ridiculous unfunded mandates. So, yes, on the face of it Democratic candidates are, initially, more appealing.
Let's not forget Incumbent Relublican Senator John Ashcroft, who suffered an Electoral thumping from Mel Carnahan, who had been dead and buried for some time before beating Ashcroft.
It would appear so far, that the crushing if the entire Democratic Party by a Red Tsunami of MAGATS and Seditionist loving it her Republicans turned into a very brief Red splash of Ketchup against a wall in Mar a Lardo.
For once, I agree with Curt.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, who blamed wildfires on Jewish space lasers (among other equally bizarre claims), beat her Democratic opponent by 31 points. Is that due to party allegiance or mass insanity?
Democrat Tony DeLuca, the longest-running Pennsylvania state representative, at 39 years, died last month at 85 of lymphoma, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
He was reelected yesterday.
He was probably put over the line by dead voters in Chicago… 😀
Tribal loyalty and polarization are very strong forces. Voters vote based on their emotions much more than their thought processes.
It may not be a pretty picture, but it’s us…
Mike; Good call on the mass insanity. Makes socalled Trump Derangement Syndrome look like a temporary Migraine. I actually though Marcus Flowers had a shot at beating her.
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