A Democrat, a Republican, and an Independent.
Oregonians are figuring out how their election for governor will shake out.
There are reliable party-line voters. There are ideological voters. There are strategic voters. There are uninterested voters. There are confused voters.
Where will they land?
I consider Democratic nominee Tina Kotek to be a liberal/progressive in the mold of Elizabeth Warren. Kotek emphasizes her effectiveness in pushing through forward-thinking blue state policies in her role as Speaker of the Oregon House.
I consider Christine Drazan to be a generic Republican. She was the Minority Leader in the Oregon House. She says she wants to move on from Trump, and that Biden won the 2020 election. She is anti-abortion. I suspect she is generally acceptable to most GOP voters.
The third candidate is Betsy Johnson, an Independent. She is hard to categorize. That is what makes this race complicated.
Comment by Curt Ankerberg
Tina Kotek is a full-strength democrat. She covers the progressive bases on every issue. You can't get more left than Tina Kotek.
Betsy Johnson is a democrat-light. She's like the dietary drink that's missing some of the main ingredients.
If you're a full-fledged democrat, then you'd probably want the real-deal full-strength candidate, with all the bells and whistles, and not the imitation, light candidate. As such, then you'd probably support Tina Kotek, and not Betsy Johnson.
Betsy Johnson is not going to appeal to the hard-core progressive democrats. They already have Tina Kotek. People who are unhappy with the democrat party, or unaffiliated voters, will gravitate to Betsy Johnson. People who are mad at the system (which Tina Kotek represents) will gravitate to Betsy Johnson. Betsy Johnson is the "protest vote".
When Betsy Johnson speaks with republican voters (like on the Bill Meyer Show) [an AM radio talk show with populist,Trump-y, downmarket appeal], then she talks about supporting guns and timber harvesting. Both are issues supported by conservatives. She panders to republicans.
When Betsy speaks with democrats (like at the Common Block Brewery) [the event this blog described two days ago], then she talks about the homeless and disadvantaged children. Both are emotional issues which tug at democrats' hearts. She doesn't discuss guns or timber harvesting. Betsy is pandering to her audience. They are only getting half a picture of who she really is. When she's with republicans, then she's a different woman, like Jekyl and Hyde.
Betsy Johnson has been around a long time, and she knows how to play the game. She knows how to pander to different audiences, so that you never know who you are getting with Betsy. She used to be a hard-core gun supporter (who brags about owning a machine gun), but now she is waffling on guns, and she might support some gun restrictions. That's the danger you get with someone who attempts to straddle the fence, and play both sides. You don't know what you are getting with them. You know what you are getting with Tina Kotek, whether you like her or not. For the record, you don't know what you are getting with Christine Drazan, either. Drazan is a wild-card.
Betsy Johnson is attempting to portray herself as a "Maverick", like John McCain. She's an outsider out to fight the establishment, but she is the establishment. Betsy served in the Oregon House of Representatives as a democrat from 2001 to 2005, and in the Oregon Senate from 2005 to 2021. That's 20 years, which is a long time.
I see some disillusioned democrat and republican voters, plus some unaffiliated voters voting for Betsy Johnson, but it won't be enough to win. Most voters will stick to their party-lines, which will leave Betsy Johnson as a non-winner in November.
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6 comments:
As a lifelong Republican considering a vote for Johnson, I certainly hope she is not like John McCain, who was a military hero but a political coward.
If Johnson kowtows to no political establishment, and has appeal to folks on both sides of the aisle, that's hardly the worst thing going. Kotek is Brown redux. Drazan's type has lost before. Since Vic Atiyeh, every single time. McCain prized the moniker "Maverick" from the Beltway media, which then smeared and backstabbed him foully in service of the grand, uplifting social gesture, Obama. Suddenly McCain was an arch-racist and a far-right extremist.
The same NYT which ignored John Edwards' actual campaign-circuit love child either as fictional or as a personal matter while his endorsement could still help Obama over Clinton, which it did, went front page above the fold with an anonymously-sourced rumor of a McCain affair with a lobbyist. After the election, McCain (as has Romney since 2012) cravenly sought approval anew from the same Beltway legacy-media vermin. Will Johnson, er, stick to her guns?
The big question is which party Johnson will take more votes from. Considering her opposition to regulation of guns, the environment and climate change, I’d bet it’s the Republican. If she made an ad busting into a house on a ‘RINO’ hunt with her machine gun, she could probably take over the Oregon GOP.
Let’s face it: she’s just another over-the-hill geezer, a contemporary of Trump and Biden. That generation has done enough damage. It’s time they step aside and let younger people clean up their mess.
If Betsy takes votes from the Portland tri-County area we will have the first Republican Governor since Vic Atiyeh. January 1987 marks the beginning of Democratic governors in Oregon. Down state may split their vote, but not likely.
Fed up with politicians who are mere tools of their ideologies, who never deviate from the party line? Vote for someone who thinks independently: Betsy Johnson.
My wife has a different opinion of Betsy Johnson. She referred to Johnson as a “cantankerous old bat.” :-)
Michael T. I’m not sure whom I’ll vote for yet. Don’t know enough about them. But I certainly agree with your basic premise: I’m sick of liars who supposedly represent a party line. A little openness would go a long way.
It’s kinda like the Trump following republicans. They NOW they’re going to destroy democracy, and our democratic way of life, but pretend they are real, live republicans.
These Jan 6 hearings have been very edifying.
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