Republicans got a big win. Abortion opponents are giddy.
Big wins create big backlash.
The Roe victory was so sweeping that even Trump was magnanimous, willing to share credit with God. "God made the decision," he told Fox News.
This week the Supreme Court announced a Maine school decision bending toward the free exercise of religion. The Court announced a ruling against New York State's regulation of concealed handguns. Then the Roe decision. Religion. Guns. Abortion. Those are things the general public recognizes as big wins.
The legal community also noted that the Court reduced the meaning of the Miranda warning. Better for police; worse for defendants. The Court reduced the ability of federal regulatory agencies to regulate industries because it says that laws of Congress, not agency rule-making, needs to create regulations. Of course, a gridlocked and thoroughly-lobbied Congress will be unable to carry out that function.
These five decisions have unleashed the thrill of victory and opportunity among Republicans. After a half-century of frustration, the conservative movement is a fullback breaking through the line with an open field ahead.
At a party of lawyers on Thursday a Republican lawyer took me aside to say Trump isn't the issue for Republicans. "Sure, Trump is bad but Biden is worse. Biden is a disaster. Inflation. Afghanistan. He's the worst president since Carter. Worse, even."
I asked if he was OK with Trump and the aftermath of the election.
"Trump has done some bad things and good things," he said. "They balance out. Look at gasoline prices. $5.50 a gallon. Fentanyl is killing Americans and it is pouring across the southern border. Groceries are up. It's about Biden and inflation. I am as optimistic as I have ever been about Republican chances."
For Republicans, this week's news isn't about January 6. Opportunity beckons. A state-by-state abortion ban is just the beginning. Michael Pence spoke in Chicago:
“Now that Roe v. Wade has been consigned to the ash heap of history, a new arena in the cause of life has emerged, and it is incumbent on all who cherish the sanctity of life to resolve that we will take the defense of the unborn and the support for women in crisis pregnancy centers to every state in America. Having been given this second chance for Life, we must not rest and must not relent until the sanctity of life is restored to the center of American law in every state in the land.”
An ongoing theme of this blog is that every action creates a unintended reaction. Revolutions create counter-revolutions. Democrats can be as energized as Republicans.
But recent experience with Texas is not encouraging. Texas has had an abortion ban since September 1, 2021--nine months ago. There was no earthquake of political re-alignment and feminist rage in Texas. Texans voted as they always have, with signs that Latino districts in south Texas may be aligning even more Republican than usual.
There is a structural problem for abortion-rights advocates. People with means will still be able to get abortions. Beginning this morning, trigger laws have gone into effect and we now have a patchwork of states that prohibit and allow abortions. People who can raise $1,000 and take one or two days off work can get an abortion by traveling to a state that permits them.
The effort to create a national ban might energize voters in blue states, but travel will still be an escape for the prosperous. Today round-trip flights from Houston to Toronto are about $650. It is the same price from St. Louis, Salt Lake City, Charlotte, Omaha, and Charleston. Round-trip flights from Miami to Toronto are about $850.
International travel is more complicated. A woman needs a passport. There may be COVID rules. Canada may change its policy of medical care to U.S. travelers. They are available to people who pay out out of pocket. Currently there are wait lists, although the supply and demand for physicians might stabilize if Canada becomes a destination. These complications create an insurmountable barrier for many people. For them, abortion bans are a catastrophe. For people with financial and social capital, abortion bans are an irritating but manageable problem.
Republicans are already making the error of overreach. State-by-state bans on abortion after 15 weeks might stake out political middle ground and a sustainable equilibrium. That is not what we are seeing. Excited by the opportunity to strike while the iron is hot, Republicans are defining abortion in a way that interferes with implantation-based contraception, in vitro fertilization, and morning-after medications. I expect that to motivate a broad-based coalition in opposition--the counter-revolution.
Democrats will win the abortion war when enough women feel that the government is affecting them, their own personal lives and decisions. Republicans seem determined to create exactly that response.
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12 comments:
The Supreme Court didn't outlaw abortions. They just removed federal oversight for it, and made it a state issue, so that individual states can now decide for themselves if they want to allow abortions. This is now a states'-rights issue.
California, Oregon, and Washington will still allow abortions, so if you live on the west coast, then you won't have to travel very far to get an abortion. I think that that Planned Parenthood performs abortions near the corner of McAndrews and Biddle in downtown Medford.
My understanding is that about half the states will still allow abortions, while the other half with outlaw it, so it's not the end of the world for abortion-lovers. You can still get your fix.
I find it funny that Democrats make a "big stink" about the January 6th protests, yet they promoted 100 days of rioting in Portland, and NOW they are threatening to riot and burn because they don't like the abortion decision. So.....protesting is OK for Democrats when they get mad, but not for Republicans. As usual, Democrats are being hypocrites. I can't take a Democrat seriously. Not when they lie.
Curt Ankerberg
Medford, OR
Since the Supreme Court has aligned itself with the Republican Party, it will now be harder for women to get an abortion, but easier for mass murderers kill people. It wouldn’t surprise me to eventually see state legislatures appointing electors rather than voters, since that seems to be another Republican goal.
Reproductive rights are sabotaged by women. 55% of women support reproductive rights.
That's not enough.
Women who vote Republican, who don't feel kinship with all of their gender, who do not understand what fundamental human rights are, who are religiously indoctrinated and, most sadly of all, are dominated by the man they chose to live with.
This setback will be overcome, women will continue to fight for their rights, with many men as allies, but it won't be won until enough women join with them that the patriarchy will be eliminated.
What struck me as I watched and read public response unfold is the deep sense of moral outrage on both sides which seemed to be focused on whose "rights" are being protected. The "preborn" or the mother? The 2A gun-buyer or the innocent gunshot victims? The right to express/promote religion in publicly-funded schools or not? (Wait until the "wrong" religions want public funding)
The inconsistencies of both ends seem lost in the fog of emotion and tribalism. The Right wants hands-off government with minimal regulation - except in certain issues like Abortion. The Left wants more hands-on government, unless it steps on personal freedom (like "choice").
Each side vilifies the other, which automatically amplifies what they don't like, into superlatives (e.g. "worst ever" or catastrophe").
I haven't asked any of my family or friends who were "one-issue" Trump supporters if they think the risk of losing Democracy as a form of government is worth the Roe reversal trade-off, but I suspect they would because their moral imperative of life "trumps" even the best governance model the world has seen. I would ask if they thought moving to autocratic leadership (name your past or present autocrat) produces the most morally virtuous society. It's never without consequences - which I think is Peter's point today.
With the Warren Court, Democrats became accustomed to seeing the SCOTUS as a power superlegislature, enacting various desired progressive political, socio-cultural and even economic outcomes into law by way of substantive due process.
Justice Thomas aside, even the supposedly controversial conservative majority in Dobbs went out of its way to praise substantive due process and pledge protection for other applications besides abortion for Griswold’s “penumbras” of privacy.
The worm isn’t tuning, in my opinion, or if it is, it’s not turning backwards anyway. Recall it was Justice Gorsuch who wrote the arguably crazy-making opinion reading trans ideology into the original intent and proper present application of Title IX.
As in so many subject-areas, it’s complicated. OTC contraception is somehow still barred in America, largely because of the connivance of Planned Parenthood, which was founded per Margaret Sanger to help “prevent the multiplication of the unfit”.
A nominally Catholic president and House speaker would retain Roe, as would have, again in my opinion, a Jesuit Chief Justice had RBG not let celebrity go to her head. Other Catholic justices re-equalize the Free Exercise and Establishment clauses.
Hopefully gun, abortion and religion essentialists are all losing their ascendancy, along with Donald Trump. This fall will be as telling a test of James Carville”s axiom about elections and the economy as ever before.
There are backlashes in both directions. A backlash from the right in response to wokeness. A backlash from the left in response to guns and abortion.
Which backlash will be stronger? We are in the process of finding out…
Hand over your contraception ladies, it's not in the Constitution! Start producing babies!
It is hilarious how offended anti-choice people are about Margaret Sanger, as if it matters in the year 2022. Of course their attacks on Margaret Sanger and Planned Parenthood are very misleading, no surprise there.
At one time, the Democratic Party controlled politics in the South. Now the South is predominantly Republican. See how things change? See how that works? Unfortunately, some people rely on half-truths, lies of omission and deception.
For the record, Margaret Higgins Sanger was born in Corning, NY, in 1879. She died in 1966. She also had 3 children.
For the record, the Warren Court required that Blacks be treated as full citizens and accorded the same rights as Whites, such as the right to vote, go to the same schools, frequent the same establishments, etc. That's why the far right is so fond of vilifying it.
I was going to respond to the flagrant hypocrisy and unbounded ignorance of this post.,but then realized it was Curt and decided not to bother.
The morning after pill is being outlawed by some states. However, if it is mailed, the states cannot stop it. It is mailed with the US Postal system, which is a federal agency. Federal law always trumps state laws. So, the states cannot interfere with its delivery.
When I was in the trucking business, I had a contract with the US Postal system. When hauling mail, I was instructed by the Postal System that if my truck was stopped by a state agency and they broke the seal on the trailer, I was immediately to contact the FBI. The Feds don't screw around with its mail.
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