Oregon Governor Candidate: Goldilocks.

Oregon will have a fabulously well-funded third-party candidate, Betsy Johnson.

She is the Goldilocks candidate. Not too Democratic. Not too Republican. She is just right. 

Or maybe just wrong.

She jokingly refers to herself as an equal-opportunity pisser-offer. She makes a virtue of it. 

She will appeal to voters frustrated with the status quo of Democrats pushing an agenda that seems too progressive and Portland-centric for many, and frustrated that Republicans dealt with that by walking out and leaving the state. Gridlock. Can't we all get along?

Betsy Johnson

I have some hard litmus-test requirements for a person to get my vote. I insist a candidate support personal and sexual privacy. That means the suite of rights that developed in the 1960s and then evolved to include homosexuals. This means the right to interracial marriage, to use contraception, and the right of a woman to choose abortion, at least until the viability of the fetus, the Roe standard. A second litmus test is that a candidate must oppose Trump's Big Lie. I won't support someone who justifies stealing the election or someone who enables and excuses people who support it. 

Betsy Johnson passes those those litmus tests. She supports sexual privacy and abortion and she says that Biden won the election. Bingo!

By passing my litmus tests she risks being unacceptable to Republicans. Maybe some Republicans have tired of sore-loser-Trump, so they might accept someone who acknowledges that Biden won. Abortion, though, is probably a hard "no" for most Republicans.

Betsy Johnson has a mix-and-match brand, with something for everyone to like and dislike. She had been a Joe Manchin-type Democrat. She opposed the $15 minimum wage. She opposes the Democrats' carbon cap-and-trade bills. She is a strong supporter of the agriculture and timber industries which positions her against some environmentalists. 

She projects a rough, casual rural/country vibe, not a Portland metro vibe. That could cut either way. There are Democrats who are frustrated and impatient with the homeless camps and street violence in Portland and who see Johnson as a protest vote. She is aggressively, unapologetically un-woke and politically incorrect. That, too, could both help and hurt.

A new complication arose. She is pro-gun and just spoke at a gun event, right in the midst of another mass shooting. It is an in-your-face gesture, for which Johnson is famous. Guns are an unmistakable partisan signal linking her to the GOP. The gun issue may tip Democrats away from her. They may decide she isn't a happy independent, after all. She is a fellow-traveler with the guns-at-any-cost people.

GOP Congressman's Christmas greeting

I expect an unusually ugly campaign season of negative ads. The sensible strategy for both Democrats and Republicans is the same: Make Betsy Johnson unacceptable. The party that has the least leakage over to Johnson will likely win the governorship. It will be a wolf-in-sheep's-clothing barrage. Republican messaging will be that she is a pro-abortion baby-killer. Democrats may mention the minimum wage and forest policy and liken her to Joe Manchin, but their strongest argument is guns. "Guns" is a one-word symbol of Republican extremism and political intransigence. 

I suspect that the abortion issue is more salient than the gun issue. That helps Republicans. But Betsy Johnson looks and sounds like a rural Republican--even more so than does the GOP candidate herself. Moreover, the fact that she will be getting attacked by Democrats for guns may drive downstate Republicans to see her as one of theirs.

Betsy Johnson could win. Oregonians may get sick of all the partisan negative advertising and decide they hate both parties. A pox on both houses. Johnson may seem like the compromise choice. 

Early morning update! 

Four days after being all-in on guns, Johnson is walking back her gun position: She told the Willamette Week newspaper: 

“My willingness to support new [gun] laws reflects my belief that, as governor, I need to represent the views and concerns of all Oregonians, and not merely my own, If I am asking others to compromise, I must lead by example and practice what I preach.”

Johnson is flexible and politically astute. She understood her problem and reacted quickly. This is trouble for Democrats. 

[Note: To get this blog by email go to https://petersage.substack.com and subscribe. The blog is free and always will be.]