Oregon Governor: Tobias Read or Tina Kotek
Oregon Democrats have a choice. It isn't the familiar one, the Bernie vs. Biden choice.
Democratic voters who were generally happy with Barack Obama and now Joe Biden may be drawn to Tobias Read. Democrats who preferred Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren might be drawn to Tina Kotek. Kotek sounds a bit more like Elizabeth Warren than Bernie Sanders, to my ear. Kotek is very practical and less ideological than Sanders, but clearly progressive and aligned with urban, educated, progressive Democrats. Elizabeth Warren made a formal endorsement of Kotek's campaign. That makes sense. Former governors Barbara Roberts and John Kitzhaber endorsed Read. That, too, makes sense.
The Read vs. Kotek choice is more one of style and personality than policy. Democrats need to decide which they prefer and then make a second strategic choice: Who has the best chance of winning in November in what will certainly be a highly contested three-way race. The governor's race has a well-funded and articulate Betsy Johnson as an unaffiliated candidate. Johnson is no "spoiler." She has fans and a political base. She has donors. I expect the winner of the election will receive fewer than 40% of the votes.
Tobias Read says he is the "change" candidate, although I cannot identify anything dramatic and visible that he would change, other than being a new Democratic face. I perceive his "change" talk to be more a slogan than a reversal of any current policy. He is a liberal Democrat and supports most of the things liberal Democrats in Oregon favor--just like the current governor and his opponent. Both he and Tina Kotek understand that the tents and homeless encampments in Portland are a motivating issue for metropolitan Portland voters. Both say they will address the problem vigorously by providing new shelters and permanent housing for the people displaced from sidewalks. Both say they will do it as soon as they can without being cruel, which will take time, work, and money.
In a KGW television joint appearance Kotek broke new ground, to my observation. She criticized Portland mayor Ted Wheeler by name. He hasn't done enough, she said. The state under her leadership appropriated money and Wheeler has not used it.
A Democrat could conclude that Kotek, not Read, is really the "change" candidate, because she is willing to make "tough" decisions and bully through change, including calling out a fellow Democrat. Her ads talk about continuity, not change, but her manner is impatient and resolute. She looks and sounds direct and sharp. The result is a complicated, muddled choice for Democratic voters. Choose someone who talks change, but isn't persuasive that he will do much. Or, choose someone who appears to support status quo policies, but sounds like an impatient bulldog with an agenda of getting stuff done, her way.
The KGW joint appearance did what TV debates sometimes do: It became trivial, with a "lightening round" for one-word answers to questions about favorite restaurants, vacation spots, and desserts. The lightening round revealed something useful. The anchors asked each to say, in one word, how they would describe themselves.
Tobias Read said "collaborative." Tina Kotek said, "persistent."
They asked each candidate for a single word to describe the other. Kotek said Read was "friendly." Read said Kotek was "driven."
They nailed it.
The descriptions reveal the actual choice between the two candidates. Collaborative and friendly Tobias Read may be able to lead the change he says is necessary. Maybe a soft touch will get people off the sidewalks, get roads built, get fires suppressed, get taxes levied. Maybe Oregon needed someone friendlier than Kate Brown. Alternatively, maybe Oregon needs and will tolerate a tougher, more blunt-speaking person. Maybe we need someone who won't tolerate delays and excuses, even when a fellow Democrat is the problem. Tough love.
Oregon Democrats looking for a quick mental shortcut should think friendly vs. driven. Friendly sounds nice until one remembers Democrats aren't choosing a kindergarten teacher. They are choosing a governor. But really not that, not yet. Democrats are choosing a candidate for governor, one who needs to get 40% of the vote.
4 comments:
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood
As the great Yogi said, "When you come to a fork in the road, take it."
In making your choice, keep the opposition in mind. They lie a lot. Fear and anger are their stock in trade. "Friendly and collaborative" may not cut it.
The Democrats need to remind voters that republicans are the party that walks out during legislative sessions and supports domestic terrorism.
That will ensure the NAVs and Independents don't vote republican.
It's funny how the republicans don't understand why Oregonians and Californians don't vote for them.
And then there’s Betsey Johnson, who is not a Republican and also is not beholden to the Democratic Party interest groups that have collectively contributed to the current government’s ineffectiveness and paralysis.
When Yogi said “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” He was giving directions to get to his home on a giant round-about. So no matter which way you went you’d arrive at Yogi’s home. I see the same thing with Tina and Tobias, which ever one wins Democrats will end up in the same place - Governor of Oregon IF they can garner 40-plus percent in the general election in November. The key is to criticize Wheeler for the obvious horrible job he’s done.
If they can’t get 40+ percent, as in the Yogi analogy, they will find themselves outside the circle looking in.
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