Storm clouds: Oregon as Blue-State microcosm

Oregon is reliably blue. It is a Democratic "gimme."  Isn't it?

I have been accused of "doom posting." I deserve that. 

I see problems. Biden is looks old. Inflation. War in Ukraine. Homeless people.  Drought. Gasoline prices. Help wanted signs but people cannot find workers. Problems at the southern border. Problems, problems. 

Some of my "doom posting" may come from where I live, in Medford, down at the bottom of the map, far from blue Portland.

COVID. It hangs over everything. I saw the frustration of many people being told to wear a mask long past when they personally were worried about COVID. I am 72. I do worry. I hear about "long COVID" and lingering effects. Many people don't share my concern. Maybe they already had gotten COVID and think they won't get it again. Maybe they are young and think themselves invulnerable. Maybe they just don't care much. To a great many people, masks and vaccinations didn't signify safety or courtesy or keeping hospital space available. It was an irritating imposition by a tyrant scold governor.  

On Wednesday my mailbox contained a giant postcard on stiff paper. It was 8 1/2 by 13. Here is the front:

She is a Democratic candidate for governor. She was the longest serving Speaker of the Oregon House until she resigned to campaign full time. She has a simple message: Oregon is blue, she has delivered, and the best is yet to come. She takes deserved credit for Oregon being on the forefront of progressive policy. She said she pushed through the strongest reproductive rights law in the country, put Oregon on a path to 100% clean energy, passed a first-in-the-nation rent stabilization law. 

She has doubled down. If you like what you see, thank Tina Kotek. 

I doom post, in the eyes of  Democrats, because I think an oscillation of public opinion is in the works. The riots in Portland in 2020 changed opinions. A recent poll published by Oregon Public Broadcasting show that the national malaise is present here in blue Oregon. Only 18% of Oregonians said Oregon government was on the "right track"; 73% said "wrong track." On the economy, 65% said it was poor or very poor. 

The trend for the current Democratic governor is negative. President Biden is 63% negative.

The bright spot for Democrats is Donald Trump. If Republicans want to tie themselves to Trump, Democrats should let them.

Give Tina Kotek credit for authenticity. She is who she is. She sent a "Fight for our Daughters" postcard yesterday, Thursday. It is similarly and on stiff paper:

In my post on April 14 I observed her "progressive feminist vibe." All the direct-to-the-camera endorsers in her TV ad were women. That is fine with me, but as a matter of strategy--especially in the interests of diversity and inclusion--I thought perhaps a male might be inserted somewhere. Perhaps in a "family" shot. Some token, to let voters know she wanted votes of men, too.

I am not complaining. Men do just fine in America. But as a matter of strategy and positioning, I notice she makes a big statement by a woman for women, on both sides of this postcard ad. There are a lot of men who vote. There are a lot of women who have husbands and sons; they also vote. My own sense is that including men in a message about empowering women does not diminish women any more than including a person of color in an advertisement diminishes White voters. We are in this together, aren't we? 

Kotek made her choices. Hit progressive policy hard. Hit feminism hard.  It is narrowcasting. Get her people motivated. 

Will her strategy work? She is busy raising money, including calling me again. I presume she will spend money she raises on messages like the ones I got in the mailbox. I wonder if she isn't digging a deeper hole for herself by doubling down. In fact, I think she is.

I may be wrong. Possibly I am just an out-of-touch doom poster.